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No, AV, you need to understand that calculating the probability after you have gotten a certain number of cards right is not the same as the probability you would calculate before you flipped any, because it means you are disregarding some of it.
I don't understand what you're saying.
I made the list up on paper before I turned the cards over.
It's like rolling a die.
I write on a piece of paper what I'm going to roll, before I roll it.
Say I write the number "5".
Now I roll the die.
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "5"?
1 in 6
Not every combination produces a living cell, but many, many combinations do -- how many nobody knows. Also, chemical reactions are not really like shuffled cards: one reaction can make others more or less likely, and replicating molecules can completely skew the odds.That reminds me of Feynman's license plate analogy. Regarding abiogenesis I don't think these arguments apply because not every combination produces the required result, which in this case is a cell that actually functions. What do you think? Do you agree?
-- What?
I don't understand what you're saying.
I made the list up on paper before I turned the cards over.
It's like rolling a die.
I write on a piece of paper what I'm going to roll, before I roll it.
Say I write the number "5".
Now I roll the die.
What are the odds that it is going to come up a "5"?
1 in 6
That is correct.In fact, AV, it would take an obscene amount of time to get every possible deck combination by shuffling fairly.
That is correct.
In fact, it would take more seconds to do it than there are seconds in the universe since time began.
Now explain that, for the simplest of life to have occurred, 256 proteins would have had to have come together in the correct order, or abiogenesis is a bust.
Indeed. Don't know why you think this has anything to do with abiogenesis though. I mean, if I shuffle a deck, I am going to have one of those many deck orders, despite any one order being improbable, the fact that I have a deck means I will make the improbable event of some deck combination happen.
Not every combination produces a living cell, but many, many combinations do -- how many nobody knows. Also, chemical reactions are not really like shuffled cards: one reaction can make others more or less likely, and replicating molecules can completely skew the odds.
Basically, it's safe to ignore anyone who claims to be able to calculate how probable it would be for life to form.
Try working with a deck with 256 different cards now, and hopefully you'll see the impossibility of abiogenesis occurring in a universe that's been around for "only" 13.8 billion years.
Try working with a deck with 256 different cards now, and hopefully you'll see the impossibility of abiogenesis occurring in a universe that's been around for "only" 13.8 billion years.
Indeed. Don't know why you think this has anything to do with abiogenesis though. I mean, if I shuffle a deck, I am going to have one of those many deck orders, despite any one order being improbable, the fact that I have a deck means I will make the improbable event of some deck combination happen.
Protein sequences vary by individual, population and species...
Dear Sarah, Hello. I noticed that you are speaking of Magical Chemical Generation or abiogenesis. Just wanted to say Hi. It's good to see you again. God Bless you
What "individual, population and species"?
There aren't any yet -- did you read my OP?
Abiogenesis is waiting to happen ... just as soon as the (or "a", I suppose) correct order is achieved.
Meanwhile the seconds are ticking away.
It makes for a good propaganda tool.
Do you know the difference between "natural selection" and "abiogenesis"?You do realize that natural selection applies to proteins too, and that many of them do the same thing, right?
Did I say "improbable"?But even if you were correct on how improbable this was,
Ya ... now you guys are gonna start talking about life up and running strong, when my OP stipulates "abiogenesis".
It's even in the title to the thread.
If it wasn't for the Arab phone, you guys would actually understand something; wouldn't you?
Hey! Ya! No kidding!?Improbable does not mean impossible...
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