New Study Shows Sea Level Rise Accelerating

[Occams Barber]

New Study Shows Sea Level Rise Accelerating

Global warming drives sea level rise in two ways: by melting land-based ice sheets, and by heating up ocean water causing it to expand. Note that melting sea ice has no effect on sea level since it’s already incorporated in the total water volume.

25 years of satellite data along with tidal gauge records show that the global mean sea level (GMSL) has risen by 7cm (~2.75 inches) since 1993. A new study, reported in the Journal of the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States (PNAS), has taken this satellite data and established that the rate of sea level rise has also been accelerating at 0.84mm/year(sq).

The bulk of the acceleration is caused by the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic land-based ice sheets, which contributed 0.02mm and 0.03mm a year, every year, to the overall acceleration with the Antarctic ice sheet contributing more to acceleration than previously thought.

While this rate of acceleration may sound miniscule, it will add up to a significant impact on sea level. If sea level rise continues to change and accelerate at this rate it will rise by around 65cm (a little over 2 feet) by 2100; more than double the amount if the rate was constant at 3 mm/y.

For those of you who, like me, live on or near the beach, may I recommend a significant investment in flotation devices.

OB

Sources
Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) article
PNAS Journal

 

[JackRT]

Recent data indicates that the Antarctic ice sheets are not just melting at the edges but now from below as well with warmer waters. This is resulting in the break away of some incredibly large ice bergs.

 

[Halbhh]

There's a recent insight that if ice shelves begin to break up more significantly around Antartica, as seems to be happening some and more than before also, that some of them could possibly alter their rate of chance (due to warm water upwelling against them for instance) and then fail in brief time spans, just years, and then being removed that would greatly accelerate the flow of glaciers to the sea, and increase the rate of sea level rise very suddenly (meaning in only mere decades for instance).

 

[Halbhh]

Also we only understand some about what's going on with the Greenland ice sheet, which displays a variety of unexpected behaviors, again raising the possibility some kind of feedback mechnism could suddenly accelerate the melting there far more than conservatively thought.

For perspective, even though Greenland has only a fraction of the ice of Antartica, still just Greenland alone melting rapidly would be very catastrophic:
"If the Greenland Ice Sheet melted, scientists estimate that sea level would riseabout 6 meters (20 feet). If the Antarctic Ice Sheet melted, sea level would rise by about 60 meters (200 feet)."
Quick Facts on Ice Sheets | National Snow and Ice Data Center

 

[Occams Barber]

There's a recent insight that if ice shelves begin to break up more significantly around Antartica, as seems to be happening some and more than before also, that some of them could possibly alter their rate of chance (due to warm water upwelling against them for isntance) and then fail in brief time spans, just years, and then being removed that would greatly accelerated the flow of glaciers to the sea, and increase the rate of sea level rise very suddenly (meaning in only mere decades for instance).

I vaguely recall reading something similar but I can't remember the source.

The idea was that sea ice jammed against the Antarctic coast effectively blocked or hindered the free flow of glacial ice off the Antarctic land mass. Get rid of the sea ice and the glaciers are freed up to dump megatons of land ice into the sea with obvious results.
OB

 

[Halbhh]

A National Geo article worth seeing:
That New Giant Iceberg Is Just the Beginning—Antarctica Is Melting

Here's a 2014 paper on this:
Widespread, rapid grounding line retreat of Pine Island, Thwaites, Smith, and Kohler glaciers, West Antarctica, from 1992 to 2011

 

[Halbhh]

Nov 2017 report -- marine life adapts very quickly to some change under the ice shelf:
Diving Scientists Report Big Changes beneath Antarctic Ice Shelf

 

[Ancient of Days]

So I guess if someone wasn't intelligent enough to live further than 10 feet from a major body of water will have to now MOVE. Here's some breaking news: If you live on the banks of a river, your house will eventually be destroyed. Well, because rivers rise. If you live on the coast of an ocean: There is a GREAT possibility that a hurricane will rip your house to shreds. If you built your house BELOW sea level and you live near the ocean then your just willingly ignorant.

 

[Halbhh]

Interesting article on some aspects and complexity of the ice shelfs and El Nino, Jan 2018

El Nino's long reach to Antarctic ice

 

[Occams Barber]

Recent data indicates that the Antarctic ice sheets are not just melting at the edges but now from below as well with warmer waters. This is resulting in the break away of some incredibly large ice bergs.

Apart from New Zealand, we're the closest country to Antarctica and it's become a real pain in the neck having to check for passing icebergs before going in the surf.
OB

 

[Occams Barber]

So I guess if someone wasn't intelligent enough to live further than 10 feet from a major body of water will have to now MOVE. Here's some breaking news: If you live on the banks of a river, your house will eventually be destroyed. Well, because rivers rise. If you live on the coast of an ocean: There is a GREAT possibility that a hurricane will rip your house to shreds. If you built your house BELOW sea level and you live near the ocean then your just willingly ignorant.

Thank you for your sage advice.
OB

 

[Ancient of Days]

Glad I could help...

"65cm (a little over 2 feet) by 2100"

65 divided by 82 puts us .79cm a year. 8mm a year? Wow, better start heading inland folks...

 

[FireDragon76]

When methane starts melting under the oceans that will be a big problem.

 

[Portalmon]

Glad I could help...

"65cm (a little over 2 feet) by 2100"

65 divided by 82 puts us .79cm a year. 8mm a year? Wow, better start heading inland folks...

LOL - 0.8 cm = about 0.4 inches per year.

At that rate, the town of Boring, Oregon (lowest elev 548 feet) would be completely submerged in a little over... 16,000 years.

I'm recommending residents on the lower side of town move to the other side of Boring, which is about 200 feet higher, giving them an extra 6,000 years.

 

[Occams Barber]

LOL - 0.8 cm = about 0.4 inches per year.

At that rate, the town of Boring, Oregon (lowest elev 548 feet) would be completely submerged in a little over... 16,000 years.

I'm recommending residents on the lower side of town move to the other side of Boring, which is about 200 feet higher, giving them an extra 6,000 years.

Boring will not get wet feet, however it may get an unpleasant shock when thousands of refugees from low lying coastal cities and towns come knocking on its doors seeking a permanent bed and breakfast.

Look beyond your own circumstances and consider the magnified effect of storm surge/hurricanes on coastal cities at even low sea level increases, think of the interruption to your way of life when commerce is effected, consider the pacific islander populations who even now are struggling with the sea, consider the disastrous effects of flooding in coastal areas of 3rd world countries.

And remember - sea level rise is only one aspect of climate change.
OB

 

[Portalmon]

Meh. Global fear mongering over the fact that climate changes, and has always changed, and will always change is likely to generate far greater damage to commerce and people's ways of life than a changing climate ever will - especially given there's precious little (if anything) we can do, substantively to change our climate - other than to accept the fact that our climate changes.

 

[Occams Barber]

Meh. Global fear mongering over the fact that climate changes, and has always changed, and will always change is likely to generate far greater damage to commerce and people's ways of life than a changing climate ever will - especially given there's precious little (if anything) we can do, substantively to change our climate - other than to accept the fact that our climate changes.

What a fatalistic little black duck you are.

You're right up to a point - climate has always changed and always will.

Where you're missing the point is that climate is changing at a much faster rate than normal as a result of global warming. The science on this isn't even arguable - it is getting warmer.

Secondly we know why the rate is changing so quickly. CO2 emissions are having a blanketing effect causing heat, which normally escapes from the atmosphere, to be retained. Once again the science is not even arguable.

Given we know the 'what' and the 'why' we can work towards figuring out the 'how' of minimising the warming effect - reduce global CO2 emissions - easy.

In the meantime we work at understanding how to minimise the impact of the changes which have gone beyond our control - not so easy.

I'm afraid there's no room and little patience for fatalism. If you can't contribute at least get out of the way with your uninformed denialism and let others get on with it.
OB

 

[Strathos]

What a fatalistic little black duck you are.

You're right up to a point - climate has always changed and always will.

Where you're missing the point is that climate is changing at a much faster rate than normal as a result of global warming. The science on this isn't even arguable - it is getting warmer.

Secondly we know why the rate is changing so quickly. CO2 emissions are having a blanketing effect causing heat, which normally escapes from the atmosphere, to be retained. Once again the science is not even arguable.

Given we know the 'what' and the 'why' we can work towards figuring out the 'how' of minimising the warming effect - reduce global CO2 emissions - easy.

In the meantime we work at understanding how to minimise the impact of the changes which have gone beyond our control - not so easy.

I'm afraid there's no room and little patience for fatalism. If you can't contribute at least get out of the way with your uninformed denialism and let others get on with it.
OB

You do realize the absurdity of saying that the science isn't even arguable on a board populated by flat earthers, right?

 

[Occams Barber]

You do realize the absurdity of saying that the science isn't even arguable on a board populated by flat earthers, right?

Down at the Atheist Social Club & Laundromat (Skidmarks our Speciality) we're familiar with building Big Lies out of fresh air. I was personally involved in developing evil campaigns like "Vaccinations are Good for Everyone" and "The Moon Landing Actually Happened" while my Unmentionables were on the Rinse Cycle.

The trick is to build a fake consensus between scientists, prestigious scientific institutions, universities, governments (of all colours) and the UN and make it match the data. This made pushing the false notion that the "Earth is a Sphere" fairly easy. Flat Earthers are easy meat.

I admit we're struggling a bit with the Anthropogenic Global Warming Hoax despite the fact that we've coerced NOAA, NASA, the British/French/German/etc. etc. Meteorological Depts, the UN and the Chinese (and the weather) to pretend AGW is real.

I think the Illuminati might be onto us.
OB

 

[Jimmy D]

So I guess if someone wasn't intelligent enough to live further than 10 feet from a major body of water will have to now MOVE. Here's some breaking news: If you live on the banks of a river, your house will eventually be destroyed. Well, because rivers rise. If you live on the coast of an ocean: There is a GREAT possibility that a hurricane will rip your house to shreds. If you built your house BELOW sea level and you live near the ocean then your just willingly ignorant.

Nice attitude.

I'm alright Jack.