New Poll Shows 48% White Evangelicals Would Support Kavanaugh Even If He Assaulted Ford

[rambot]

Actually it was Notional Christians like Trump who got him elected. Although Evangelicals did come out in number consistent with 2012 when Romney was the nominee, it was the category of Notional Christians which broke the dam in favor of Trump just in the last three months.

From Barna survey:

While some media analysts have claimed that the evangelical vote for Trump was unusually large, the survey data do not support that claim. The 79 percent that evangelicals awarded to the GOP nominee was actually the lowest level of evangelical support for a Republican candidate since Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in 1996, garnering 74 percent of their support. The 79 percent figure earned by Trump in this election was slightly lower than the 81 percent given to Mitt Romney in 2012. Which was previously the lowest level of evangelical support for a Republican candidate since Dole.

Continuing:

Surprisingly, Trump’s biggest jump in support during the home stretch came from notional Christians. While that segment preferred Clinton by 12 points in September, they wound up siding with Trump by a two-point differential. That represents a 14-point gain in the final two months among the numerically-largest pool of religious voters.

Whoops...

Another shocking twist during the last two months was the shift of allegiance to Trump among atheists and agnostics. Trump gained 10 percentage points on Clinton among this group.

Now that’s pretty interesting.

Notional Christians are people who consider themselves to be Christian but they have not made “a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today” or believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they have confessed their sins and accepted Jesus Christ as their Savior.

Non Christians overwhelmingly went for Clinton:

Clinton finished strongly, in terms of total votes received, partially because of a huge rise in support among people aligned with non-Christian faiths. Her margin of preference increased among that group from seven points in September to a whopping 51 points on Election Day – a 44-point climb in eight weeks! Unfortunately for her campaign, the other-faith segment was the smallest of the five primary faith segments, rendering that growth in support significant but not enough to seal the deal.

Some definitions:

The Other faith segment refers to individuals who associate with a faith other than Christianity. Among the most common of those faith groups included within that segment were Judaism, Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism.

Skeptics are individuals who describe themselves as atheist or agnostic, or who indicate that they do not believe in the existence of God or have no faith-related ties or interests.

Chart:

View attachment 242313

Link:

https://www.barna.com/research/notional-christians-big-election-story-2016/

Your assertion refuted. The big bad Evangelical bogeyman theory is refuted.

You may want to visit some union halls, bars etc to find your Notional Christians to blame for Trump. Meaning actual voters.

Yeah..."only" 79%.
Your argument is that 12% of a group swung the tide? When 79% is.....

This is Mary Lou Retton logic gymnastics to make that happen.

 

[redleghunter]

The text of this posting doesn't match the data. "notional Christians" increased in the last 2 months, but were still about evenly split, while evangelicals were strongly for Trump.

Hedrick it was the 12 point swing which was solid Democrat in the past. Hillary had this historic constituency which was loyal to the party since her husband was elected twice.

Again the text and chart do match. Both address the huge swing in the last three months.

It is true, however that no president gets elected by a single constituency. Evangelicals were a critical constituency, and that's gotten the press, but people I'd call "red-necks" were just as important: racist, sexist, anti-immigrant, but often non-Christian or not particularly committed. Some in the press may think these are the same thing, and after reading some postings in CF I can understand why, but many evangelicals aren't those things. More recent analyses I've read identifies them as separate groups. Here's an analysis identifying 5 different groups: The Five Types of Trump Voters | Democracy Fund Voter Study Group

Interesting thanks for the data.

Note that many Christians don't use the "born-again" terminology. Without seeing the exact questions they asked, I have to wonder whether there weren't strong non-evangelical Christians classified as "notional."

The article was addressing the press comments reference Evangelicals. The survey compared Evangelicals to other Christian and other faith groups. They do breakdown what is historically Protestant and Roman Catholic:

The Barna survey also revealed that Protestants gave Trump 58 percent of their votes and Clinton received only 36 percent. Catholics split their vote, awarding 48 percent to each candidate. This is the first election in the last 20 years in which the Catholic vote was not won by the Democratic candidate.

Loads there for those who want to excoriate anyone Christian who voted for Trump.

 

[redleghunter]

Yeah..."only" 79%.
Your argument is that 12% of a group swung the tide? When 79% is.....

This is Mary Lou Retton logic gymnastics to make that happen.

There’s a problem with your math.

The 14% swing happened in the largest Christian category. A category which was loyal to every Democrat President candidate since Bill Clinton.

So 14% of a larger much larger segment will yield more votes especially in areas like the rust belt.

The 79% Evangelical support was less than the 81% backing Romney. Did Romney win? No he did not. Obama won the support of the non-Evangelical Christian or Notional category.

Putting it in terms for all.

Evangelicals are like an 11” pizza mostly cut for Trump. And in the past this pizza was cut a bit more for other Republican candidates.

All other Christian groups are like a Big Lou’ table sized pizza (San Antonio) cut a little more for Trump. When in the past The majority of the pizza went for Obama, Kerry, Gore and Bill Clinton.

 

[mark kennedy]

48% of White Evangelicals Would Support Kavanaugh Even If He Assaulted Dr. Ford

For this poll, they interviewed 997 people and this is the result that came out. I don't know about you, but these polls focusing on evangelicals really seem to be steamed in sensationlistic reaction rather than anything good. It's bad reasoning that many people would support him even if he was guilty, but on the other hand I really feel this just is fuel for so many people who are already anti-evangelical.

Moral depravity? Because you don"t think the incident as described is rape. She descibes someone getting frisky but she was never rapped. He is telling us he wasn't even in town, let alone in the room.

 

[Kentonio]

Pretty sure the evangelicalism of the elders is "one of love and compassion".

As long as the person is a conservative, otherwise they're just an immoral liberal who deserves what they get, right?

 

[2PhiloVoid]

48% of White Evangelicals Would Support Kavanaugh Even If He Assaulted Dr. Ford

For this poll, they interviewed 997 people and this is the result that came out. I don't know about you, but these polls focusing on evangelicals really seem to be steamed in sensationlistic reaction rather than anything good. It's bad reasoning that many people would support him even if he was guilty, but on the other hand I really feel this just is fuel for so many people who are already anti-evangelical.

...so, how about that other 52% of White Evangelicals who either wouldn't support Kavanaugh or were on the fence about it?

 

[redleghunter]

...so, how about that other 52% of White Evangelicals who either wouldn't support Kavanaugh or were on the fence about it?

And what about all the other denominations not even mentioned. Lol.

 

[Gigimo]

Actually it was Notional Christians like Trump who got him elected. Although Evangelicals did come out in number consistent with 2012 when Romney was the nominee, it was the category of Notional Christians which broke the dam in favor of Trump just in the last three months.

From Barna survey:

While some media analysts have claimed that the evangelical vote for Trump was unusually large, the survey data do not support that claim. The 79 percent that evangelicals awarded to the GOP nominee was actually the lowest level of evangelical support for a Republican candidate since Bob Dole lost to Bill Clinton in 1996, garnering 74 percent of their support. The 79 percent figure earned by Trump in this election was slightly lower than the 81 percent given to Mitt Romney in 2012. Which was previously the lowest level of evangelical support for a Republican candidate since Dole.

Continuing:

Surprisingly, Trump’s biggest jump in support during the home stretch came from notional Christians. While that segment preferred Clinton by 12 points in September, they wound up siding with Trump by a two-point differential. That represents a 14-point gain in the final two months among the numerically-largest pool of religious voters.

Whoops...

Another shocking twist during the last two months was the shift of allegiance to Trump among atheists and agnostics. Trump gained 10 percentage points on Clinton among this group.

Now that’s pretty interesting.

Notional Christians are people who consider themselves to be Christian but they have not made “a personal commitment to Jesus Christ that is still important in their life today” or believe that when they die they will go to Heaven because they have confessed their sins and accepted Jesus Christ as their Savior.

Non Christians overwhelmingly went for Clinton:

Clinton finished strongly, in terms of total votes received, partially because of a huge rise in support among people aligned with non-Christian faiths. Her margin of preference increased among that group from seven points in September to a whopping 51 points on Election Day – a 44-point climb in eight weeks! Unfortunately for her campaign, the other-faith segment was the smallest of the five primary faith segments, rendering that growth in support significant but not enough to seal the deal.

Some definitions:

The Other faith segment refers to individuals who associate with a faith other than Christianity. Among the most common of those faith groups included within that segment were Judaism, Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism.

Skeptics are individuals who describe themselves as atheist or agnostic, or who indicate that they do not believe in the existence of God or have no faith-related ties or interests.

Chart:

View attachment 242313

Link:

https://www.barna.com/research/notional-christians-big-election-story-2016/

Your assertion refuted. The big bad Evangelical bogeyman theory is refuted.

You may want to visit some union halls, bars etc to find your Notional Christians to blame for Trump. Meaning actual voters.

I'm curious as to what attracted so many of the Non-Christian faith to Hilliary there at the end?

 

[Gigimo]

The 14% swing happened in the largest Christian category. A category which was loyal to every Democrat President candidate since Bill Clinton.

So 14% of a larger much larger segment will yield more votes especially in areas like the rust belt.

Kinda sorta sounds like the swing was work/job/tax related.

 

[TLK Valentine]

I'm curious as to what attracted so many of the Non-Christian faith to Hilliary there at the end?

Support for a candidate who tells them that America is their country, too?

 

[GoldenBoy89]

I'm curious as to what attracted so many of the Non-Christian faith to Hilliary there at the end?

The left is less overbearing with the Jesus stuff.

 

[KCfromNC]

I'm curious as to what attracted so many of the Non-Christian faith to Hilliary there at the end?

Her ability to speak in complete sentences? Not openly asking hostile foreign powers to hack our computers? Failing to openly court racists? Seems like a lot of options here. The only weird thing is thinking they'd be restricted to non-Christians.

 

[redleghunter]

I'm curious as to what attracted so many of the Non-Christian faith to Hilliary there at the end?

Maybe the baskets of deplorables. It was a dog whistle comment she made.

 

[redleghunter]

Kinda sorta sounds like the swing was work/job/tax related.

Yes. Not to mention being put in a basket.

 

[redleghunter]

Support for a candidate who tells them that America is their country, too?

That they are not in a deplorable basket. Yes I tend to see that dog whistle.

 

[redleghunter]

The left is less overbearing with the Jesus stuff.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Unfortunately, I can't say that's surprising given the numbers that came back on some other public opinion polls from within that demographic.

-Nearly 40% bought into the whole "Kenya Conspiracy"
-And roughly a similar amount expressed similar sentiments about Roy Moore when that whole ordeal was going on.
-Nearly 40% also said that a person being an atheist would lose their vote regardless of their political viewpoints on the issues.

In Summary:
40% of evangelicals seem to put party over principle, and are willing to overlook a lot in efforts to try get things "back to the way things used to be" with regards to their personal religious preferences on a few issues being given political an societal favor over others.

Or, put less eloquently... They'll vote for just about anyone who promises to get rid of abortion and work toward reversing same sex marriage, regardless of that person's history and moral compass on other issues.

 

[redleghunter]

Nearly 40% bought into the whole "Kenya Conspiracy"

Can you provide that resource? If I’m remembering correctly that was Republicans in general.

 

[TLK Valentine]

That they are not in a deplorable basket. Yes I tend to see that dog whistle.

Rather hard to see a sound. Make a point?

 

[redleghunter]

Rather hard to see a sound. Make a point?

It was her dog whistle moment.