Mutations Really Do Happen

[sfs]

seem to what?
your post seems to be cut off in mid transmission.

Seem to do the same for transposons.

i haven't seen any research into this area.
you apparently know it as the truth, so point me to where this research is located please.

Research into mutations in hox genes? Here's one study on naturally occurring mutations. More generally, the function of hox genes was originally studied by looking at the effects of hox mutations on fruit fly development.

 

[[serious]]

I guess I need to rephrase it again. What are the combined odds of a creature, like say a mouse, existing at all? I'll grant you the starting point of a single-celled organism.

that question doesn't even make sense. Are you suggesting that life generally must include some Form of mouse? Which species of mouse is critical to life more generally? Did life not exist before mice?

 

[OldWiseGuy]

Did you know the average human male produces about 500 billion sperm in a lifetime? The odds of a particular sperm fertilising an egg would seem small, yet I'm guessing one or two of yours managed it. You asking for the odds of an individual species existing is a similar type of question as asking the odds of one of your sperm fertilising an egg.

Exactly. Thanks.

 

[crjmurray]

Exactly. Thanks.

You seem to be confused...

 

[OldWiseGuy]

that question doesn't even make sense. Are you suggesting that life generally must include some Form of mouse? Which species of mouse is critical to life more generally? Did life not exist before mice?

Did you misread? I said like, as in for example, a mouse.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

You seem to be confused...

Not at all. Look at it this way.

Science equates the odds of evolution occurring is 100 percent, based on the probability of the egg being fertilized. Creationists figure on the improbability of any single sperm fertilizing the egg as a metaphor for the chances of evolution occurring.

 

[crjmurray]

Not at all. Look at it this way.

Science equates the odds of evolution occurring is 100 percent, based on the probability of the egg being fertilized. Creationists figure on the improbability of any single sperm fertilizing the egg as a metaphor for the chances of evolution occurring.

But odds are meaningless in this scenario. Your argument makes no sense. Have ya tried the card shuffling thing? It might help.

 

[MerlinJ]

Creationists figure on the improbability of any single sperm fertilizing the egg as a metaphor for the chances of evolution occurring.

That's only meaningful if it has to be a particular sperm, but it doesn't.

It's like throwing a handful of sand into the air and arguing that the pattern in which it lands is too improbable to have happened. Nigh-impossible things happen constantly.

 

[OldWiseGuy]

That's only meaningful if it has to be a particular sperm, but it doesn't.

It's like throwing a handful of sand into the air and arguing that the pattern in which it lands is too improbable to have happened. Nigh-impossible things happen constantly.

But there comes a point that the cumulative improbabilities render such occurrences impossible. Carl Sagan was fond of saying, "Yet against all odds, it happened." At some point you gotta say, "Naaaaa, it didn't happen."

Science says evolution must have happened because here is the mouse. Creationists say creation must have happened because here is the mouse. What remains is calculating the odds of each (a WAG will do).

 

[crjmurray]

So can you give me a ratio in which something becomes so improbable it is impossible? 1,000,000:1 etc?

 

[OldWiseGuy]

So can you give me a ratio in which something becomes so improbable it is impossible? 1,000,000:1 etc?

I would say a ballpark figure might be this. The odds against a single-celled organism becoming a complex organism, like a human, would be,

the odds against that cell dividing at all times the number of all of the evolutionary changes necessary to complete the process.

So my wild --- guess would be,

1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,
000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000:1 against evolution.

(I had to stop there as my commas became periods (????).

 

[pgp_protector]

Ever hear of Scientific notation?

 

[AV1611VET]

I would say a ballpark figure might be this.

IIRC, 10[sup]50[/sup] is enough to render something mathematically improbable.

 

[crjmurray]

IIRC, 10[sup]50[/sup] is enough to render something mathematically improbable.

Oh thank you so much AV!!! Now refer to my card shuffling challenge and we'll go from there.

 

[AV1611VET]

Oh thank you so much AV!!! Now refer to my card shuffling challenge and we'll go from there.

What card-shuffling challenge?

 

[crjmurray]

What card-shuffling challenge?

Shuffle a deck of cards then calculate the odds of those cards appearing in the order you shuffled them in.

 

[AV1611VET]

Shuffle a deck of cards then calculate the odds of those cards appearing in the order you shuffled them in.

Try calculating the odds first, then shuffle them.

 

[crjmurray]

Try calculating the odds first, then shuffle them.

And that's precisely the problem. Looking vat something as if it was a goal versus looking at something with a high endless array of possibilities.

 

[essentialsaltes]

"Try calculating the odds first, then shuffle them."

After shuffling, the odds that the cards are in the order they are in is 1.
Before shuffling, the odds that the cards will be in the order they will be is 1 in 8*10^67.

Through the passage of time, something can go from "enough to render something mathematically improbable" to certainty.

So now we see that asking for the probability of a mouse or a tarantula after the fact is meaningless. Because almost everything that ever happens is wildly improbable. And yet it happens.

 

[crjmurray]

"Try calculating the odds first, then shuffle them."

After shuffling, the odds that the cards are in the order they are in is 1.
Before shuffling, the odds that the cards will be in the order they will be is 1 in 8*10^67.

Through the passage of time, something can go from "enough to render something mathematically improbable" to certainty.

So now we see that asking for the probability of a mouse or a tarantula after the fact is meaningless. Because almost everything that ever happens is wildly improbable. And yet it happens.

I'm glad one person looked up the odds/did the math.