Morgan Stanley lifts 2023 US growth forecast on expectation of infrastructure investment

[wing2000]

Investing in American infrastructure is lifting the economy and chances of recession fades according to economist at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs:

July 21 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley raised U.S. economic growth forecast for the year on a strong industrial sector and more public investment in infrastructure, and expects a "comfortable" soft-landing for the economy.

Economists at Morgan Stanley now expect U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 1.3% on average in 2023, from an earlier forecast of a 0.6% rise.

"Incoming data now point to a more comfortable soft landing than we had anticipated, led by public investment in infrastructure and nonresidential structures investment," Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner wrote in a note dated Thursday.

The case for the U.S. economy making a soft-landing - a slowdown in economic growth that avoids a recession - has been rising, with Goldman Sachs earlier this week cutting the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 20% from and earlier forecast of 25%.
...

Morgan Stanley lifts 2023 US growth forecast on expectation of infrastructure investment

Morgan Stanley raised U.S. economic growth forecast for the year on a strong industrial sector and more public investment in infrastructure, and expects a "comfortable" soft-landing for the economy.

www.reuters.com

 

[Say it aint so]

Investing in American infrastructure is lifting the economy and chances of recession fades according to economist at Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs:

July 21 (Reuters) - Morgan Stanley raised U.S. economic growth forecast for the year on a strong industrial sector and more public investment in infrastructure, and expects a "comfortable" soft-landing for the economy.

Economists at Morgan Stanley now expect U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) to grow 1.3% on average in 2023, from an earlier forecast of a 0.6% rise.

"Incoming data now point to a more comfortable soft landing than we had anticipated, led by public investment in infrastructure and nonresidential structures investment," Morgan Stanley economist Ellen Zentner wrote in a note dated Thursday.

The case for the U.S. economy making a soft-landing - a slowdown in economic growth that avoids a recession - has been rising, with Goldman Sachs earlier this week cutting the probability of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months to 20% from and earlier forecast of 25%.
...

Morgan Stanley lifts 2023 US growth forecast on expectation of infrastructure investment

Morgan Stanley raised U.S. economic growth forecast for the year on a strong industrial sector and more public investment in infrastructure, and expects a "comfortable" soft-landing for the economy.

www.reuters.com

Finally.
After "infrastructure week" as announced every two weeks for four years that led to squat, Biden getting things done.

 

[eclipsenow]

Remember the old example of bacteria in a Petri dish. Assume you know it doubles every minute, and the dish will be full in an hour. When is the dish half full? In 59 minutes! The bacteria has been almost invisible for 50 minutes then in the last 10 minutes goes from a tiny blotch to an eighth, then a quarter, then a half, and suddenly the dish is full!

Most of us have been ignorant of the slow but accumulating breakthroughs in both renewable technology and the ability to scale it. Indeed, until a year ago I was pro-nuclear because I just couldn't see how renewables could get us through winter and bad weather. But renewables are now so cheap they can be Overbuilt for our needs. Supply lines and new tech and new investments are all kicking in, but behind the scenes. So if this were in my Petri dish metaphor, renewables are just becoming visible on the side of the dish. It's reached a critical mass and is about to explode exponentially across the next decade. So many solar factories are being built today that when they are finished in 2025 they will build FOUR TIMES the solar built in 2022! This is 6% of today's electricity built EVERY YEAR! 17 years to the job from solar alone! [Episode #184] – EROI of RE | The Energy Transition Show

AS WELL AS CLEAN RENEWABLES - ELECTRIC TRANSPORT IS COMING, FAST!
The head of the IEA actually thinks we'll hit global peak DEMAND for oil by 2026 and then demand will decline faster than oil’s production peak! This means Big Battery is fast catching Big Oil! EG: Americans buy about 13 million cars a year, and today’s EV market with the Tesla Gigafactories and other companies only produce about 918,000 EV’s or 0.9 million cars. But right now, so many battery factories are being built that American battery capacity will rise by about 13 TIMES! "By 2030, this EV battery manufacturing capacity will support the manufacturing of between 10 million and 13 million all-electric vehicles per year, putting the U.S. in position to be a global EV competitor." These states will dominate EV battery manufacturing in 2030 Also, EV's currently last 1.5 to 2 times longer than an ICE vehicle. So buying an EV is paying up front for your next 2 cars! They're already at price parity with oil cars, or cheaper if you consider there's no ENGINE to service and electricity is cheaper than petroleum! Finally, consider that the USGS says there's 89 million tons of lithium. At 6 kg lithium per EV that's 10 TIMES what we need. AND they've almost cracked lithium from seawater - and there's a MILLION YEARS of lithium at 2030's rates in the ocean. Finally - I don't even like cars. Because of peak oil concerns back in the day, I learned to love New Urbanist walking distance town squares with a metro and all the conveniences. But even now that EV’s are on the scene, my adult kids in their 20’s are all into New Urbanism - because of the lifestyle advantages! One of them even wants to go into town planning as a career because of it. Walking distance town squares with a Metro - convenience, clean air, and conviviality. Solves issues of the local government economy, public health and loneliness in one go. This would radically reduce the number of cars we need. As they say, “My other car is an Ecocity.”

 

[wing2000]

"The U.S. economy showed few signs of recession in the second quarter, as gross domestic product grew at a faster-than-expected pace during the period, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

GDP, the sum of all goods and services activity, increased at a 2.4% annualized rate for the April-through-June period, better than the 2% consensus estimate from Dow Jones. GDP rose at a 2% pace in the first quarter."


... nflation was held in check through the period. The personal consumption expenditures price index increased 2.6%, down from a 4.1% rise in the first quarter and well below the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 3.2%."

GDP grew at a 2.4% pace in the second quarter, topping expectations despite recession calls

Gross domestic product was expected to increase at a 2% annualized pace in the second quarter.

www.cnbc.com

 

[bèlla]

Here's a panel on infrastructure investing. Listen to the portion on digital transformation and technology in construction.

~bella