The Triumph of Bidenomics!

[NxNW]

The supposedly-left-wing media seems to be doing a great job of discussing Biden's age, but not such a great job covering the stunning success of Bidenomics. Here are some numbers grudgingly reported by the right-wing media.

Inflation is receding and even reversing!

https://www.wsj.com/economy/goods-deflation-is-back-it-could-speed-inflations-return-to-2-c782d434?st=tyypnprf9k8adhu&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

Prices for long-lasting items, known as durable goods, have fallen on a year-over-year basis for five straight months. In October, they were down 2.6% from their peak in September 2022, according to data released Thursday by the Commerce Department. That has helped bring down core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, to 3.5% in October, from 5.5% in September 2022, as measured by the personal-consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

The economy is growing at the amazing pace of 5.2%!

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-11-29-2023/card/economy-grew-faster-than-thought-in-q3-but-slowdown-expected-CivDqG8scwqDUnP0qZSh

The economy grew faster than previously estimated during the third quarter—at a blistering seasonally- and inflation-adjusted 5.2% annual rate—because there was more fixed investment as well as state and local government spending than initially thought, the Commerce Department said Wednesday.

Even with the UAW strike, job creation is solid. Fears of a recession are disappearing.

US labor market loosens as job gains slow, unemployment rate hits 3.9%​

• Nonfarm payrolls increase 150,000 in October
• Auto strikes reduce payrolls by 33,000 jobs
• Unemployment rate rises to 3.9% from 3.8%
• Average hourly earnings gain 0.2%; up 4.1% year-on-year

The economy added 101,000 fewer jobs in August and September than previously estimated, also suggesting slowing labor market momentum. The report strengthened financial market expectations that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates for the current cycle, and improved the chances of the U.S. central bank engineering a "soft-landing" for the economy rather than plunging it into recession as some economists had feared.

Manufacturing employment dropped 35,000, with the UAW strike at Ford Motor (F.N), General Motors (GM.N) and Chrysler parent Stellantis (STLAM.MI) factories as well as at Mack Trucks plants subtracting 33,000 jobs.


Seriously, there isn't much to complain about where the economy is concerned. But you have to go looking for the information.

 

[Laodicean60]

I am glad that people are employed. The thing that concerns me is the amount of debt we are accruing to keep the economy afloat since the GFC.

 

[NxNW]

I am glad that people are employed. The thing that concerns me is the amount of debt we are accruing to keep the economy afloat since the GFC.

Remember the Republican mantra: deficits don't matter.

 

[JustOneWay]

Remember the Republican mantra: deficits don't matter.

...until a democrat is in charge!

 

[Laodicean60]

Remember the Republican mantra: deficits don't matter.

Two wrongs don't make a right.

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

Two wrongs don't make a right.

This is usually said by the first one to do the wrong or those that didn't call out the first wrong.

 

[Laodicean60]

This is usually said by the first one to do the wrong or those that didn't call out the first wrong.

At least I am man enough to admit the wrong.

 

[Richard T]

Here is the white houses definition: "His plan—Bidenomics—is rooted in the recognition that the best way to grow the economy is from the middle out and the bottom up. It’s an economic vision centered around three key pillars:

• Making smart public investments in America
• Empowering and educating workers to grow the middle class
• Promoting competition to lower costs and help entrepreneurs and small businesses thrive" Source: Bidenomics Is Working: The President’s Plan Grows the Economy from the Middle Out and Bottom Up—Not the Top Down | The White House

Even by his own definition there is no way one could fully judge these three main goals in four years.

I suppose though that Bidenomics just means how well the economy is doing in general. Though the numbers are pretty decent (GDP, unemployment and job growth) Biden has limited power. He does not control monetary policy, create jobs or growth. He can veto spending or suggest programs but there is nothing special about Biden. It was the Federal Reserve that reduced inflation, and they are the ones that created most of it. 3.5% is still 75% over their own target so it is hardly a feat for them yet. Illegal immigration likely has been a drag on the economy at these high levels, his energy policy has hurt gas prices and though congress is in charge of spending, he promotes like every President since Reagan, (Clinton the exception) a fiscal policy that leads the USA to bankruptcy with a debt to GDP ratio of 123%. A level that was seen during WWII. So if we really have a war I imagine we can see 200% maybe more? The big question is will the growth now subside, will there be a hard landing, will government investment pay off? Sorry I am skeptical, but at least for now the numbers are better than the media portrays them.

 

[Laodicean60]

his energy policy

This concerns me a lot, the draining of the SPR, I believe it was done to keep gas prices down but we have wars going on, and Thank God something hasn't happened to another Oil producing country.

USA to bankruptcy with a debt to GDP

This is what I'm scared of and if we have a severe recession we won't be able to pay the interest on the debt.

The big question is will the growth now subside

ISM has been down for several months and warnings from companies about a drop in consumer spending which is a big part of our economy. So I think it will slow in 2024.

 

[NxNW]

It was the Federal Reserve that reduced inflation, and they are the ones that created most of it. 3.5% is still 75% over their own target so it is hardly a feat for them yet.

The target is -71.5% ?

 

[iluvatar5150]

The target is -71.5% ?

No, the target is 2%. 3.5% is 75% greater than 2%.

 

[NxNW]

3.5% is 75% greater than 2%.

No, 3.5% is 1.5% greater than 2%. You can't take percents of percents and expect the percent sign to mean anything.

 

[iluvatar5150]

No, 3.5% is 1.5% greater than 2%.

No, 3.5% is 1.5 percentage points greater than 2%.

75% (or three quarters, if you prefer) of 2% is 1.5%.

2% + 1.5% == 3.5%

er go

3.5% is 75% greater than 2%.

You can't take percents of percents and expect the percent sign to mean anything.

You most certainly can if you understand the math. Percents are just another way of writing fractions and it is totally fine to nest fractions or refer to fractions of fractions.

 

[Pommer]

No, 3.5% is 1.5 percentage points greater than 2%.

75% (or three quarters, if you prefer) of 2% is 1.5%.

2% + 1.5% == 3.5%

er go

3.5% is 75% greater than 2%.




You most certainly can if you understand the math. Percents are just another way of writing fractions and it is totally fine to nest fractions or refer to fractions of fractions.

The USS National Economy cannot be steered with the “precision” that we might like, and there’s all sorts of dangers like boom/bust cycles and the ever present danger of deflation raising it’s kraken head, getting inflation to fall without it falling “too much” requires a “light touch”.

 

[NxNW]

75% (or three quarters, if you prefer) of 2% is 1.5%.

The percent sign in the 2% figure means 2 of every 100 people searching for work are unemployed. The percent sign in the 75% figure does not refer to the same 100 people, and is therefore meaningless. Taking percents of percents is a well-known method of lying with figures.

You most certainly can if you understand the math. Percents are just another way of writing fractions and it is totally fine to nest fractions or refer to fractions of fractions.

You can nest fractions, but when discussing percentages, the percent signs must all refer to the same group or set to have meaning.
If you pay a penny on a hundred dollars of income, you're paying 0.01% tax. If you pay two pennies, you're paying 0.02% tax. Your tax has increased by 0.01%, or 0.01 percentage points if you prefer. It is absolutely incorrect to say that your taxes have increased by 100%, because taxes are expressed as a percentage of income. "I paid double what I paid in taxes last year!" might be technically correct, but you're still paying next to nothing.

And as an aside, most people pay far less than 30% in total taxes of all types: federal, state, real estate, sales tax, gas tax, etc.

 

[iluvatar5150]

The percent sign in the 2% figure means 2 of every 100 people searching for work are unemployed.

No, the percentage sign just means “divided by 100”. We were talking about inflation, not unemployment.

If you pay a penny on a hundred dollars of income, you're paying 0.01% tax. If you pay two pennies, you're paying 0.02% tax. Your tax has increased by 0.01%, or 0.01 percentage points if you prefer.

No. Saying that something increased by “x%” and saying that it increased by “x percentage points” are two different things.

What you’ve been describing is a raise in percentage points.

Saying that something increased by “x%” means that it increased by some fraction of its original amount. This can be applied to anything, including percentages.

It is absolutely incorrect to say that your taxes have increased by 100%, because taxes are expressed as a percentage of income. "I paid double what I paid in taxes last year!" might be technically correct, but you're still paying next to nothing.

You’re just wrong. “Doubling” and “increasing by 100%” mean the same thing.

Wikipedia explains it:

Percentage point - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[KCfromNC]

The percent sign in the 2% figure means 2 of every 100 people searching for work are unemployed. The percent sign in the 75% figure does not refer to the same 100 people, and is therefore meaningless. Taking percents of percents is a well-known method of lying with figures.

It's also a good way of visualizing the difference between two small numbers.

 

[NxNW]

It's also a good way of visualizing the difference between two small numbers.

The fact that they are both small is the important thing. Taking percents of percents in order to distort things is deceptive.

 

[Richard T]

Target is 2%, 3.5 is

The target is -71.5% ?

The target is -71.5% ?

Fed's target for inflation is 2 percent. Since we are at 3.5%, we are still 75% over the target range. Some think they will scrap the two percent rule and be content with 3 percent or so. Personally, I think the inflation readings are dishonest and understate the true rate of inflation.

 

[essentialsaltes]

US labor market loosens as job gains slow, unemployment rate hits 3.9%​

• Nonfarm payrolls increase 150,000 in October
• Auto strikes reduce payrolls by 33,000 jobs
• Unemployment rate rises to 3.9% from 3.8%

The U.S. economy created 199,000 jobs in November and the unemployment rate fell to 3.7 percent, according to data released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics

Manufacturing also trended up by 28,000, reflecting the return of union auto-manufacturing workers from their strike.