Monkeypox--leveling off

[tall73]

Wow, it's become an epidemic. Wonder why the news is not covering this like they should?

Wonder why it became an epidemic during the month of June?

Once it became clear that it was primarily being driven by sexual transmission within the "men who have sex with men community", the media coverage was no longer as interested. Public health officials issued warnings, but these were muted by concerns of stigmatization.

And had they been more willing to be up front we may not have had the spread we do now. Most of the cases in the US are not travel related now, but are community spread, largely still among homosexual or bisexual men.

The health officials mentioned that its spread internationally through sex venues was at a bad time, with pride month coming up. But then we got such strange advice as the CDC advice saying not to have sex if you have monkeypox, but if you can't handle that, limit partners when you have monkeypox. It is hard to take their warnings seriously at that point.

Now it is on a different scale than COVID, certainly. It is not spread as easily, and is building more slowly. So that is part of the reason for less press.

I wonder if a larger media emphasis during pride month could have actually slowed transmission in the homosexual community, but it seems they decided against that, possibly due to blowback.

Then again, it is possible that all of those needing the information got it, whether through media, or passed on through social networks, and some just took risks anyway.

 

[tall73]

Confirmed and suspected cases as of July 4
Monkeypox

Total: 6,226

Confirmed and suspected cases as of July 5
Monkeypox


United Kingdom 1352
Spain 1258
Germany 1242
France 578
United States 559
Portugal 415
Netherlands 352
Canada 307
Italy 234
Belgium 169
Switzerland 121
Brazil 91
Israel 52
Ireland 39
Austria 37
Sweden 28
Norway 22
Hungary 19
Denmark 18
Ghana 18
Peru 15
United Arab Emirates 13
Australia 12
Poland 12
Mexico 11
Romania 11
Chile 10
Finland 10
Slovenia 9
Czechia 8
Argentina 6
Uganda 6
Colombia 5
Iceland 4
Malta 4
Benin 3
Bulgaria 3
Greece 3
Iran 3
Luxembourg 3
Somalia 3
Latvia 2
South Africa 2
Bolivia 1
Cayman Islands 1
Croatia 1
Estonia 1
Georgia 1
Haiti 1
Lebanon 1
Morocco 1
Pakistan 1
Puerto Rico 1
Serbia 1
Singapore 1
South Korea 1
Sudan 1
Taiwan 1
Turkey 1
Uruguay 1
Venezuela 1
Zambia 1

Total: 7088

Part of it may have been lag over the holiday weekend in reporting, but it went up 862 cases in a day.

 

[tall73]

Lesions, headaches, debilitating pain: Gay men with monkeypox share their stories


Jeff, who’s in his mid-30s and is a university administrator in a mid-Atlantic state, spent a couple of weeks traveling through Europe through early June. He made stops in London, Paris, Amsterdam and Berlin, having sex with multiple partners along the way, he said, including in a bathhouse and a sex club in the German capital.

“There’s hundreds of men in this club,” Jeff said, recalling considerable skin-to-skin contact between patrons. “Obviously, no one’s coming down to wipe down the sling.”

Anne Rimoin, an epidemiologist at the UCLA Fielding School of Public Health and a leading monkeypox expert, said in reference to the sharing of sex slings, “Given the risk of transmission by fomites — contaminated objects — it’s theoretically possible for monkeypox to be transmitted in this manner.”


Some men said they were sent home with incorrect diagnoses before they finally found a health care provider to diagnose them properly.

“I now know what it felt like to be the first HIV patients many decades ago,” said Alex, 32, a biologist in Washington, D.C., who said he believes he got monkeypox from a gathering of a few dozen OnlyFans creators where they were filming sex scenes with one another. He said he’s heard the event likely led to at least three other cases.


For Hall, a lesion in his urethra has left him dreading urinating. “It sort of feels like 1,000 burning knives are trying to come out of my urethra at the same time,” he said.

Febles said that after he gave an interview to a local NBC affiliate, he got a call from an infectious disease team at Columbia University, led by Dr. Jason Zucker, about receiving the antiviral tecovirimat on an investigational basis. His lesions have since been clearing up — an effect he attributed to the antiviral. In an email to NBC News, Zucker confirmed he has been prescribing the antiviral to people with monkeypox under what’s known as an expanded access protocol developed by the CDC.

Harun Tulunay, 35, also spoke last week from the hospital, in his case in London. He had been unable to eat for days due to lesions in his mouth and swelling in the lymph nodes in his neck that was so intense he couldn’t swallow. His left nostril was covered in a purple-black lesion. Like Febles, he said he was experiencing extreme pain all over his body, which physicians were treating with opioids while also giving him tecovirimat.

 

[DaisyDay]

The vaccine is apparently available, but not readily, in NYC.
Link to article

I'm not particularly concerned for myself with this one as I don't have much contact with people and I had the smallpox vaccine as a kid.

 

[tall73]

The vaccine is apparently available, but not readily, in NYC.
Link to article

I'm not particularly concerned for myself with this one as I don't have much contact with people and I had the smallpox vaccine as a kid.

Yes, it sounds like you are pretty safe with what we know so far.

 

[Pommer]

Yes, it sounds like you are pretty safe with what we know so far.

Anyone over 51 years old, yes.
I’ve two nieces, 11 months apart; one has the smallpox scar t’other doesn’t.

 

[tall73]

Previously I was posting confirmed and suspected cases, but they only have data on confirmed cases now on ourworldindata's tracker. Not sure if that is a sign testing is now more online (though I saw some signs of it not being in the story recently posted about NY cases.)

In any case, there was still a significant number of cases added, not counting suspected ones. And now Germany has pulled ahead of the UK in cases. Cases as of July 7:

Germany 1385
United Kingdom 1352
Spain 1258
United States 700
France 577
Portugal 433
Netherlands 402
Canada 370
Italy 233
Belgium 168
Brazil 142
Switzerland 135
Israel 59
Ireland 44
Sweden 43
Austria 37
Norway 25
Hungary 19
Denmark 18
Ghana 18
Australia 17
Peru 15
Slovenia 14
Chile 13
United Arab Emirates 13
Poland 12
Greece 11
Mexico 11
Romania 11
Finland 10
Czechia 8
Argentina 6
Colombia 5
Iceland 4
Malta 4
Benin 3
Bulgaria 3
Luxembourg 3
Singapore 3
Latvia 2
South Africa 2
Croatia 1
Dominican Republic 1
Ecuador 1
Estonia 1
Georgia 1
Jamaica 1
Lebanon 1
Morocco 1
Panama 1
Puerto Rico 1
Serbia 1
Slovakia 1
South Korea 1
Taiwan 1
Turkey 1
Venezuela 1

Total: 7604

 

[Skye1300]

Wow that is crazy. It's still just among gay men right?

 

[Skye1300]

Anyone over 51 years old, yes.
I’ve two nieces, 11 months apart; one has the smallpox scar t’other doesn’t.

If it starts spreading to the general public I will have to get the vaccine.

 

[Pommer]

Wow that is crazy. It's still just among gay men right?

Wow, this just took me back 40 years!

 

[tall73]

Wow that is crazy. It's still just among gay men right?

If it starts spreading to the general public I will have to get the vaccine.

There have been some cases among women, including one case I saw where proximity in the same home, rather than sexual contact, was the means of catching it. However, the vast majority are still among "men who have sex with men."

Now the reason that latter designation is more nuanced than saying "gay men" is because some of those are bisexual. So if they contract it and then have sex with a woman, that could branch out to another community, depending on who that woman then has sex with following that encounter. That is why part of the UK technical briefings deal with whether it is still largely confined to the one community. They are actively monitoring that aspect.

If you are married, and only having sex with your spouse, and he the same, then there is little risk for you, unless you are working in a health care field where you might be changing linens, etc. for such patients, or have some other reason you are likely to be in prolonged proximity.

Anything could happen, but your risk would be relatively low. And while there are smallpox vaccines which they think could help, they do have, especially in the older ones, some myocarditis and pericarditis risks which would have to be weighed against the possibility of infection. So far they are just using them for known close contacts, etc. as far as I know.

They are also doing some tests on an antiviral. If they are able to develop one it may not make sense to use the smallpox vaccines we have for this strain which has low mortality so far, as it may be needed for theoretical later bio attacks with smallpox which could result in very high fatalities. They have largely kept smallpox vaccines on hand for that scenario.

 

[tall73]

Wow, this just took me back 40 years!

From a technical standpoint transmission in specific communities is monitored, as I noted in the UK example, as it is part of the tracing dynamics, and spread to new communities could mean a larger overall health problem.

However, we do need also to realize that the men dealing with this need help, including information about the prevalence in the MSM community.

 

[tall73]

As of July 8 Spain is now in the lead by a fair margin. I am hoping this latest number represents multiple days of results being reported, or else they had a really bad day. The UK is now back ahead of Germany again. The US is moving up the ranks. I have been reading of community spread on both coasts, so with the larger population to work with will probably be the highest before long.

Spain 2034
United Kingdom 1553
Germany 1490
United States 790
France 721
Portugal 473
Netherlands 402
Canada 375
Italy 255
Brazil 173
Belgium 168
Switzerland 140
Austria 62
Israel 59
Ireland 44
Sweden 43
Norway 25
Hungary 24
Australia 20
Denmark 18
Ghana 18
Peru 18
Slovenia 18
Romania 14
Chile 13
United Arab Emirates 13
Poland 12
Greece 11
Mexico 11
Finland 10
Czechia 8
Argentina 6
Iceland 6
Colombia 5
Malta 4
Singapore 4
Benin 3
Bulgaria 3
Luxembourg 3
Latvia 2
South Africa 2
Croatia 1
Dominican Republic 1
Ecuador 1
Estonia 1
Georgia 1
Jamaica 1
Lebanon 1
Morocco 1
Panama 1
Puerto Rico 1
Serbia 1
Slovakia 1
South Korea 1
Taiwan 1
Turkey 1
Venezuela 1

World 9069

 

[tall73]

Monkeypox vaccine and testing delays echo failures in early COVID response

"We're six weeks in, and we're still having problems with availability of testing and vaccine supply, all these issues that we saw with COVID," said Gregg Gonsalves, an associate professor of epidemiology at the Yale School of Public Health. "Now, the prospects for containment are receding quickly."

Most infections identified so far have been in men who have sex with men, and many of the cases are in Europe. But the World Health Organization reported July 1 that cases are emerging among other groups — in some cases, among people such as household members, heterosexual contacts, and children.

Initially, the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommended that people get vaccinated only if they were exposed to someone with monkeypox. The federal guidance has been expanded to a much larger group, including men who have sex with men who have recently had multiple sex partners in a place where monkeypox has been reported.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

Monkeypox Tracker-OurWorldInData is tracking the international outbreak in non-endemic countries.

How exactly is monkeypox transmitted?

 

[tall73]

How exactly is monkeypox transmitted?

Up until this outbreak primarily by contact with animals.

In this outbreak the primary means of transmission has been sexual contact, in particular among men who have sex with men. Additional cases have been reported through heterosexual transmission, and in people, including children who are in close proximity for some time.

It can also be transmitted by infected linens, etc. If you read the thread this and other elements are documented.

 

[Oompa Loompa]

Up until this outbreak primarily by contact with animals.

In this outbreak the primary means of transmission has been sexual contact, in particular among men who have sex with men. Additional cases have been reported through heterosexual transmission, and in people, including children who are in close proximity for some time.

It can also be transmitted by infected linens, etc. If you read the thread this and other elements are documented.

Oh. So I shouldn't have anything to worry about.

 

[tall73]

Oh. So I shouldn't have anything to worry about.

Unless you work in a health care field with infected people, are having sex with partners who may carry it, or are in some field where you are in close proximity to many people, etc. likely not at this time.

 

[tall73]

The U.S. May Be Losing the Fight Against Monkeypox, Scientists Say

Local health departments trace contacts only after a confirmed diagnosis, allowing the chain of transmission to continue in the meantime.

“We clearly identified this as a major mistake that allowed Covid to get its footprint in the U.S. and spread undetected for a month, without any of us knowing,” said Angela Rasmussen, a research scientist at the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Canada.

“And now we’re just doing the same thing all over again, because that’s the way it’s done.”

The C.D.C. should have made testing rapidly available to glean the extent of the outbreak early on, she added: “Our failure to do that has almost certainly allowed the outbreak to become much bigger than it could have been, and now I have serious doubts about whether it can even be contained.”

A senior Biden administration official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters, acknowledged that implementation of monkeypox testing had not been as convenient nor fast as it needed to be.

 

[tall73]

Some highlights from the UK Technical Briefing 3

Investigation into monkeypox outbreak in England: technical briefing 3

The UKHSA monkeypox nowcasting model implies positive growth between 3.8% to 6.7% per day, corresponding to a doubling time of 15 days (90% CI: 10 days, 18 days).

Whilst testing is freely available and a mixed population group is being tested, it is likely that there is under ascertainment. Atypical symptoms, including single or scarce lesions, are reported and there are international reports of subclinical infection. A high proportion of cases (79%) for which there is information have no known contact with a confirmed case although this data is primarily available from earlier in the outbreak.

There have been 4 female cases and one child (under 16) in 2022 in England.

There are no confirmed instances of airborne transmission. Limited household transmission has been described in the UK.

In the 2022 global outbreak, 3 deaths have been reported from 6,027 cases.

Cases in previously non-endemic countries are reported as primarily in GBMSM. Outside the UK, 3 confirmed cases in children have recently been reported in Europe and this signal requires close monitoring.

Attendance at events among those infected surveyed:

Festival 40% (226)
Sex-on-premise venue 17% (98)
Bar 12% (68)
Nightclub 9% (50)
Sauna 8% (45)
Gym/ swimming pools 6% (33)
Private sex party 4% (23)
Event 3% (18)
Other 2% (11)

Some cases have attended the same festival or event over multiple dates; each date has been reported separately. Only events or venues with at least 2 cases in attendance on a given date are included.

Two-hundred-and-fifty-eight common events outside of the UK were also reported by 61 unique cases. These included festivals and venues in Spain (including Gran Canaria), Belgium and Israel.

Additionally, some air samples obtained within the patient rooms, during and following the changing of bed linen, contain MPXV DNA and, in one case, viable MPXV isolated by virus culture. Sampling and analysis of results continues, but the initial findings support the need for appropriate infection prevention and control measures for inpatient settings, to prevent people from being exposed to infectious virus.