Sure - I hope this is adequate. I tried not to misrepresent his views:
So Desmet first noted that the predicted mortality rate of Corona based on the models used (from the Imperial College) were dramatically overestimated by at least 1300% as evidenced when the actual numbers came in by the end of 2020.
Dr Desmet is
wrong here. Flat out, plain, wrong. The model used by the Imperial College paper
underestimated the mortality rate.
Here's the original Imperial College paper:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
Mortality rates - referred to in the paper as infection fatality ratio- are given on page 5. Here's the relevant paragraph:
The age-stratified proportion of infections that require hospitalisation and the infection fatality ratio (IFR) were obtained from an analysis of a subset of cases from China. These estimates were corrected for non-uniform attack rates by age and when applied to the GB population result in an IFR of 0.9% with 4.4% of infections hospitalised (Table 1).
Table 1 gives the same, an IFR of 0.9%, with a low of 0.002% for the 0-9 age bracket and a high of 9.3% for the 80+ age bracket.
Current COVID-19 mortality rate globally is 1.97%.
The Imperial College model provided a wide variety of virus reproduction/transmission rates for its estimates. These ranged from unrealistically low to unrealistically high. They also provided a wide variety of "trigger" positions for policy introduction - shutting schools/universities, voluntary isolations, home quarantines, full lockdowns - to slow the spread.
This is normal. This is how public policy modelling is done. You generally give a high, low and 'realistic' scenarios, or something similar.
As a result, there is a HUGE spread in total mortality rate estimates from the Imperial College initial modelling. See page 13 of the paper.
For instance, in the UK the scenario with "full lockdown" style approach for each virus surge has a low estimate of 5600 deaths and an upper estimate of 48,000 deaths. The 'do nothing' scenario has a low estimate of 410,000 deaths and an upper estimate of 550,000 deaths.
Also, note that the
modelling is for deaths over 2 years, not one.
Given that the UK has had 150,000 deaths, at best the Imperial College models overstated potential mortality by ~275%. In the worst case. You could also phrase it that their best case understated potential mortality by more than
2800%.
Even stranger, the measures based on these wrong models weren't then reconsidered and the mainstream narrative continued as if they were correct. He also noticeed that the field of attention was very narrowly focused on the victims of the virus as if the collateral damage caused by the Corona measures was not taken into account at all. It was as if they had no mental, cognitive, or emotional impact even when the UN and other institutions warned that the children dying from hunger as a consequence of lockdowns in developing countries could well be higher than the number of people that "could" die as a consequence of the virus, even if no measures were taken at all.
This is flat out wrong as well.
Have you actually read any of the health briefings on COVID-19 that have come out of the WHO, or the COVID-19 Strategic Preparedness and Response Plans from the UN? They have multiple sections dedicated to topics around dislocations caused by the pandemic situation - lockdowns, social stressors, isolation, dealing with changed medical situations, how it will affect people with disabilites and those with lower incomes, ect, ect.
It's not like they didn't release a mental health plan in May-2020:
UNSDG | Policy Brief: COVID-19 and the Need for Action on Mental Health
Or release literally dozens of scio-economic response plans over 2020 to support less developed nations:
UNSDG | United Nations development assistance framework for the immediate socio-economic response to COVID-19
UNSDG | Resources Library
Do none of you people do even basic fact checking any more?
Or do you just hear an opinion you like and take it as a gospel truth.