Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)

[essentialsaltes]

US weekly jobless claims rise as labor market eases​

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000 for the week ended August 30, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Job growth has shifted into stall-speed, with economists blaming President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that is hampering hiring at construction sites and restaurants.

The government reported on Wednesday that there were more unemployed people than positions available in July for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[Gene2memE]

The US jobs market is treading water, but +8,000 initial jobless claims is just statistical noise. Initial claims regularly swing by +/- 10,000 from week to week. Week to week swings of nearly +/- 20,000 aren't uncommon and swings in the range of +/- 50,000 aren't unheard of.

If you look at the 4 week average, jobless claims are essentially flat over the last 12 months. The worst you could say is that claims are up ~9% since the start of the year. But, you could counter than by noting that claims are down 6% since June.

Instead, look at the total number of people receiving unemployment insurance. That's up from about 1.83 million 12 months ago to about 1.97 million now. If you look at the job opening data (generally negative) and labor force participation rate data (generally positive) it's likely to get worse over the next 3-4 months.

 

[essentialsaltes]

I started a thread on it, but revised jobs numbers for June show that the US lost jobs that month, the first time since 2020. August added 22,000 jobs.

Firing the messenger did nothing. BLS jobs report revises June to be the first *loss* of jobs since 2020. August added 22,000. Unemployment ticks up

Hiring slowdown continues in 1st jobs report since Trump fired commissioner The U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That figure showed a sharp decrease from 79,000 jobs added in the previous month. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%...

www.christianforums.com

 

[essentialsaltes]

July CPI at 2.7%, same as last month

CPI rose at a rate of 2.9% in August as U.S. inflation ticked higher​

[After the triumph of Bidenomics brought it down to 2.3% in April,] inflation has been creeping higher in recent months, edging away from the Federal Reserve's 2% annual target. That's causing some Americans to feel more sour about the economy, with a recent CBS News poll finding that two-thirds of consumers said prices in the past few weeks have continued to rise.

Some items getting more expensive are products that are largely imported, such as coffee, which soared 21.7% from a year ago, and furniture, which rose 4.7%. Imports are subject to U.S. tariffs based on country of origin, with the Trump administration adding new duties that start at 10% and scale higher.

Day-to-day costs also increased at a faster pace, with food prices rising by 3.2% from a year ago, largely driven by higher restaurant prices, the data showed.

 

[essentialsaltes]

DOW breaks 46,000.

ETA: DOW falls below 46,000.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Consumer sentiment drops in September as Americans anticipate job market risks​

The University of Michigan’s preliminary Survey of Consumers showed that overall sentiment dropped to 55.4 in September, a 4.8% decline from August’s reading of 58.2 and the lowest reading since May. The headline consumer sentiment index is down by 21% from a year ago.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Bring me the messenger!

Trump fires BLS chief for bad news​

Trump doesn't like objective measures, and Trump doesn't like subjective measures.

After cuts to food stamps, Trump administration ends government's annual report on hunger in America​

“The questions used to collect the data are entirely subjective and do not present an accurate picture of actual food security,’’ the USDA said.

 

[Akita Suggagaki]

Trump doesn't like objective measures, and Trump doesn't like subjective measures.

After cuts to food stamps, Trump administration ends government's annual report on hunger in America​

“The questions used to collect the data are entirely subjective and do not present an accurate picture of actual food security,’’ the USDA said.

The decision comes two and a half months after President Donald Trump signed legislation sharply reducing food aid to the poor.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Core inflation rose to 2.9% in July, highest since February​

Core inflation stays at 2.9% in August.

Excluding volatile food and energy prices, so-called core PCE inflation showed a 2.9% increase in prices from August 2024, same as in July. The increases were what forecasters had expected.

 

[essentialsaltes]

DOW breaks 46,000.

Jobs numbers aren't critical data, so the shutdown has prevented their release.

But the DOW is currently above 47,000.

 

[essentialsaltes]

CBO: US Annual Budget Deficit Steady at $1.8 Trillion, Despite Surge in Tariff Revenue​

The federal government logged a $1.8 trillion budget deficit for the 2025 fiscal year, little changed from 2024 despite a surge in tariffrevenues, according to the Congressional Budget Office.

While the Treasury Department issues the official tally for monthly and annual budget figures, plans for publishing the September monthly and 2025 fiscal-year data may be affected by the current federal government shutdown. A spokesperson for the Treasury didn’t respond to a request for comment on the timing of the report.

The agency said that while revenues climbed by $308 billion, or 6%, spending advanced by an estimated $301 billion, or 4% — propelled by categories including interest on the public debt, which surpassed $1 trillion for the first time.

Receipts from corporate income taxes decreased 15% compared to 2024, in part due to Trump’s signature tax and spending plan passed by Congress this summer.

Tax and spend is right.

 

[essentialsaltes]

Jobs numbers aren't critical data, so the shutdown has prevented their release.

But the DOW is currently above 47,000.

And now back below 46,000.

 

[wing2000]

"The September consumer price index showed prices rising at a 3 percent annual rate — up slightly from 2.9 percent in August and above April’s post-pandemic low of 2.3 percent, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Gasoline prices, which edged down over the past year — providing some relief to consumers — nonetheless jumped 4.1 percent in September and were the largest factor in a 0.3 percent monthly increase."

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2025/10/24/delayed-inflation-report-tariffs/

 

[essentialsaltes]

US consumer confidence slips to six-month low; worries over job availability rising​

The Conference Board survey on Tuesday also confirmed what economists describe as a K-shaped economy, with confidence declining among consumers making an annual income of less than $75,000, but consumers earning more than $200,000 a year more upbeat. Economists argue that high-income households are keeping the economy afloat through robust consumer spending.

[Speaking of that K shape]

Average New Vehicle Price in the U.S. Breaks Through the $50,000 Barrier​

Expensive EVs and luxury vehicles, among other factors, have driven up the average transaction price to $50,080 as of September 2025.

According to Kelley Blue Book, luxury vehicles and EVs are largely to blame for the higher prices. EVs made up 11.6 percent of the new vehicle market in the U.S. in September, an all-time high. Yet in September, the electric vehicle ATP was $58,124, a 3.5 percent increase from August.

As for luxury vehicles, there were more than 60 models with ATPs above $75,000. These high-priced models saw 94,000 sales last month, roughly 7.4 percent of the overall market; for contrast, last September, these expensive models made up 6.0 percent of overall sales.

[It's not so much that prices are rising as that the poors are not buying cars as much.]

​

Americans in ‘Crisis Mode’ as Consumer Stress Hits Five-Year High​

The report says that bankruptcy inquiries surged 17 percent in the third quarter of the year, continuing an upward trend that began in late 2021. This helped to push the Consumer Stress Legal Index up 4.4 percent between June and September, capping off seven consecutive months of increases and reaching its highest level since March 2020.

Despite robust gross domestic product growth in the second quarter and early signs of an especially impressive corporate earnings season, there are concerns that the majority of Americans are missing out on the benefits of any economic expansion that may be occurring. Surveys charting consumer confidence continue to register declines, revealing widespread pessimism among households about their financial outlook and the economy as a whole.

While the official reading from the Labor Department on jobs growth in September has been delayed due to the ongoing government shutdown, private market data has pointed to another weak month for hiring in the U.S.