Let's Track the Economy (with objective empirical data?)

[essentialsaltes]

US weekly jobless claims rise as labor market eases​

Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 8,000 to a seasonally adjusted 237,000 for the week ended August 30, the Labor Department said on Thursday.

Job growth has shifted into stall-speed, with economists blaming President Donald Trump's sweeping import tariffs and an immigration crackdown that is hampering hiring at construction sites and restaurants.

The government reported on Wednesday that there were more unemployed people than positions available in July for the first time since the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

[Gene2memE]

The US jobs market is treading water, but +8,000 initial jobless claims is just statistical noise. Initial claims regularly swing by +/- 10,000 from week to week. Week to week swings of nearly +/- 20,000 aren't uncommon and swings in the range of +/- 50,000 aren't unheard of.

If you look at the 4 week average, jobless claims are essentially flat over the last 12 months. The worst you could say is that claims are up ~9% since the start of the year. But, you could counter than by noting that claims are down 6% since June.

Instead, look at the total number of people receiving unemployment insurance. That's up from about 1.83 million 12 months ago to about 1.97 million now. If you look at the job opening data (generally negative) and labor force participation rate data (generally positive) it's likely to get worse over the next 3-4 months.

 

[essentialsaltes]

I started a thread on it, but revised jobs numbers for June show that the US lost jobs that month, the first time since 2020. August added 22,000 jobs.

Firing the messenger did nothing. BLS jobs report revises June to be the first *loss* of jobs since 2020. August added 22,000. Unemployment ticks up

Hiring slowdown continues in 1st jobs report since Trump fired commissioner The U.S. added 22,000 jobs in August, according to data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. That figure showed a sharp decrease from 79,000 jobs added in the previous month. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.3%...

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