Joe Biden Says He Won’t Eliminate $50K in Student Loan Debt—and the Left Isn’t Happy

[iluvatar5150]

Imagine how vocational degrees could change things in our country, especially as a path out of poverty!

IMO, the promises of votech degrees are grossly oversold. For the most part, the only people making good money in the trades are business owners and people in service of the wealthy or corporations, e.g. high-end auto mechanics, master cabinet makers, or unionized construction/industry (esp those jobs that require a lot of travel, like oil fields and wind turbines). Getting a welding or hvac certificate isn't going to do much for a guy living in a town of 20,000 people who unable or unwilling to relocate. Those jobs still pay lousy.

 

[durangodawood]

I have a lot of sympathy for student debt holders.

College was a lot cheaper (inflation adjusted) when I went.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

IMO, the promises of votech degrees are grossly oversold. For the most part, the only people making good money in the trades are business owners and people in service of the wealthy or corporations, e.g. high-end auto mechanics, master cabinet makers, or unionized construction/industry (esp those jobs that require a lot of travel, like oil fields and wind turbines). Getting a welding or hvac certificate isn't going to do much for a guy living in a town of 20,000 people who unable or unwilling to relocate. Those jobs still pay lousy.

The same could be said about a lot of degrees for a person who's living in a town of 20,000 and unwilling to relocate, though.

In the town I grew up in, it's a pretty rural spot (13,000 people last I checked), and my Computer Science degree would've been pretty much just as useless as a fine arts degree in that town (no companies big enough to warrant having an in-house IT department).

The difference being, I was able to move to a city 40 mins away that did...if I wanted to pursue a career in set design for a theater company, I'd have had to move a heck of a lot further than 40 mins away to have a good shot at employment.

As far as what some of the careers are that the votech training is focused on:
The amount of pay would be considered "lousy" by some peoples' standards (I certainly wouldn't want to make an HVAC tech's salary, but that's me), but not everyone prioritizes things the same way.

As an example: HVAC techs have a median salary of $45k year, with the top 10 percentile of people in that vocation making > $70k. For a lot of people, they're a-ok with that, they don't need to make a six figure income to be happy.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I'd argue that a lot of the responsibility still lies with the schools and the government for, essentially, defrauding students by making the career opportunities look more viable than they are.

Yeah, obviously school recruiters and admissions staff can try to oversell certain types of degrees...but at the end of the day, borrower's responsibility still needs to come into play here.

18-19 years old is still old enough to know that if you live in a suburb of Des Moines Iowa, a big-money career in fashion design probably isn't in the cards. (and is still statistically tough to get into even if you lived in a more fashion-centric area like NYC or LA).

It's especially easy to research these things on your own now with everyone having the internet at their disposal.

It doesn't take very in-depth statistical analysis to calculate one's own odds of being one of the lucky few to get a job in a very limited field.

A 10 minute look at this link
Bachelor's degrees conferred by postsecondary institutions, by field of study: Selected years, 1970-71 through 2017-18

...and running that up against BLS data and Job Openings data which shows how many spots are currently available in that field, and what the jobs forecast is for the next 10 years (as far as new positions being created, as well as how many openings are created via retirements and voluntary separations) should give people a rough idea of what their chances are.

If you see it's a field where there are 100,000 people graduating every year, but it's only forecast to add 46,000 jobs over the next ten years combined, and only 5,000 people a year in current positions are retiring, chances are, the prospects aren't statistically great for landing something right after graduation.


If we started forgiving debt for every time a person signed on for more money than what they were getting was actually worth based on a sales pitch and not doing any homework on what they were signing up for, that would probably account for half of all auto-loans currently out there today.

 

[iluvatar5150]

The same could be said about a lot of degrees for a person who's living in a town of 20,000 and unwilling to relocate, though.

Sure, but History and Theater degrees aren't being sold to that guy as a quick and easy way out of poverty.

As far as what some of the careers are that the votech training is focused on:
The amount of pay would be considered "lousy" by some peoples' standards (I certainly wouldn't want to make an HVAC tech's salary, but that's me), but not everyone prioritizes things the same way.

As an example: HVAC techs have a median salary of $45k year, with the top 10 percentile of people in that vocation making > $70k. For a lot of people, they're a-ok with that, they don't need to make a six figure income to be happy.

That's the nationwide median, right? Meaning there are as many people below it as above it. The guy in the town of 20k people is likely making less. That may be enough to keep the lights on and the furnace running, but there's not a lot of margin there. If that's what it takes for somebody to get out of the hole, then good for him. But my point was that that's not what these programs are being sold as; they're often being sold as a whole lot more than that.

 

[iluvatar5150]

It doesn't take very in-depth statistical analysis to calculate one's own odds of being one of the lucky few to get a job in a very limited field.

It doesn't, but half of everybody has a sub-100 IQ. And a lot of the people taking on these loans (i.e. the students) are being guided by people (parents and professors) who have a really poor understanding of the job market. I can't tell you how many kids I've run across who think they're going to get some sort of audio gig on Indeed. If you graduate college thinking that, then you got cheated.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

It doesn't, but half of everybody has a sub-100 IQ. And a lot of the people taking on these loans (i.e. the students) are being guided by people (parents and professors) who have a really poor understanding of the job market. I can't tell you how many kids I've run across who think they're going to get some sort of audio gig on Indeed. If you graduate college thinking that, then you got cheated.

I don't think low IQ necessarily explains why people choose to embark on low-probability fields of study.

At least in my own experience, the people I know who've made that mistake are all very intelligent people. Well-read, very smart in an academic sense, and completely rational in almost every other part of their lives.

I'll use my cousin as an example. She's very intelligent, she went to Baldwin Wallace here in Northeast Ohio. It's considered to be a more "elite'ish school" (not quite Ivy League level, but certainly above a Cleveland State or Kent State). They have some fairly stringent entry requirements and I'd be highly shocked if you could find a single person going to school there with a < 100 IQ.

She still opted to go there and get her undergraduate degree in "Studio Art"...bunch of debt as a result. Needless to say, Northeast Ohio doesn't have a "thriving art scene".

I (and other family members) had that conversation with her on more than one occasion that what she wanted to do for a living was going to be a long shot (to no avail).

I don't think it comes from a place of ignorance or stupidity as much as a comes from a place of the "participation medal" generation, where kids end up with unrealistic expectations and think "I'm special, I know it's a long shot, but I'm going to be the one who makes it!"

She scored a 1520 on her SAT, so clearly she has a grasp on math and how to assess statistical probability based on data, but she's working at Target part time during the week, and works in one of Cleveland's few art galleries on the weekends for $18/hour (with huge debts to pay back) as a result of her decisions. So that just goes to show, even really smart people can have blind spots.

This notion that "because I'm really passionate about it, I deserve to make a lot of money doing it" is a problematic notion being instilled in younger generations.

 

[bèlla]

There are alternative paths to dreams. You don’t have to travel the usual route. Most would be better off taking a gap year to start a side hustle and learn how to generate an income and use the resources to further their skills or education.

Or use that period to learn a trade and go to school part-time when they finish. There’s no need to mortgage yourself for an education unless you’re in an industry who’s starting pay and bonuses (including internships) would wipe it out. Like finance and consulting.

Yours in His Service,

~bella

 

[iluvatar5150]

I don't think low IQ necessarily explains why people choose to embark on low-probability fields of study.

At least in my own experience, the people I know who've made that mistake are all very intelligent people. Well-read, very smart in an academic sense, and completely rational in almost every other part of their lives.

I'll use my cousin as an example. She's very intelligent, she went to Baldwin Wallace here in Northeast Ohio. It's considered to be a more "elite'ish school" (not quite Ivy League level, but certainly above a Cleveland State or Kent State). They have some fairly stringent entry requirements and I'd be highly shocked if you could find a single person going to school there with a < 100 IQ.

She still opted to go there and get her undergraduate degree in "Studio Art"...bunch of debt as a result. Needless to say, Northeast Ohio doesn't have a "thriving art scene".

I (and other family members) had that conversation with her on more than one occasion that what she wanted to do for a living was going to be a long shot (to no avail).

I don't think it comes from a place of ignorance or stupidity as much as a comes from a place of the "participation medal" generation, where kids end up with unrealistic expectations and think "I'm special, I know it's a long shot, but I'm going to be the one who makes it!"

She scored a 1520 on her SAT, so clearly she has a grasp on math and how to assess statistical probability based on data, but she's working at Target part time during the week, and works in one of Cleveland's few art galleries on the weekends for $18/hour (with huge debts to pay back) as a result of her decisions. So that just goes to show, even really smart people can have blind spots.

This notion that "because I'm really passionate about it, I deserve to make a lot of money doing it" is a problematic notion being instilled in younger generations.

That's fair. But I bet if you dug into it, there were some people along the way who implanted some errant ideas in her brain including 1.) you can do anything in fine arts with less than a masters and 2.) it's the sort of job you just apply for. I suspect some of those people leading her astray were at her school, operating a program that, based on its ranking, probably shouldn't exist in the first place. Many of these programs - especially the ones at mediocre schools - do little more than perpetuate their own existence.

IME, people seem to have a better idea of what it takes to become a successful pop/rock musician. I think if we presented all of these sexy jobs as being analogous to being in a rock band (which they are) instead of being like a more-fun office job that you just find after trolling Indeed for a few weeks, people would better appreciate the dynamics at play.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

I agree with Joe, unless there was a plan to also reimburse the people who were honest and productive members of society who managed to pay their debts like responsible people are susposed to do.

 

[hedrick]

Maybe the thread title should end with "AOC and Pressley are unhappy".

This is me sitting here in the middle of the Left with complete equanimity.

The Democratic party chose Biden and not AOC for a reason. They wanted a moderate liberal, who would propose programs that most Americans can accept. They got what they asked for.