Is The Flow Of Drugs From the South An Emergency?

[BNR32FAN]

Yet the data so far indicates that they come through ports of entry.

I mean if you have DATA showing that non-ports-of-entry is the primary route, then, by all means, we need to see it so that we can better understand the discussion. But right now the data indicates that the drugs are coming through legal ports of entry.

NOTE: I'm not saying that drugs never come through the desert, just that there has so far been no indication that this is the primary route.

Just proposing a possible thing without any evidence in support of it is insufficient to require us to spend billions of dollars on it.

Yes but their “data” can only be obtained by counting the number of people who get caught with drugs trying to cross the boarder. It stands to reason that more people will get caught attempting to cross a boarder with illegal drugs in secured checkpoints than in the middle of nowhere. These numbers cannot be obtained by the people who don’t get caught. All this shows is that the boarder checkpoints are stopping more drugs from coming in than the vast unsecured areas. This cannot tell us how much is coming thru the areas were not catching them.

 

[SimplyMe]

Yes but their “data” can only be obtained by counting the number of people who get caught with drugs trying to cross the boarder. It stands to reason that more people will get caught attempting to cross a boarder with illegal drugs in secured checkpoints than in the middle of nowhere. These numbers cannot be obtained by the people who don’t get caught. All this shows is that the boarder checkpoints are stopping more drugs from coming in than the vast unsecured areas. This cannot tell us how much is coming thru the areas were not catching them.

That is a weak argument; it isn't as though other areas of the border are not covered.

Your argument really falls apart when you look at the studies that estimate over 1.5 million pounds of drugs come across the southern border annually -- so over two tons per day. That would take a lot of drug mules to back pack across the desert -- and realistically each would likely be limited to 25 pounds or less -- particularly when you consider the water they'd need to carry for the trek.

Instead, it makes far more sense that they actually ship it in trucks through checkpoints, where they can put a few tons split between a few trucks. Yes, some gets caught at the border -- but most makes it through and prices are high enough that they can absorb the cost of the lost shipments.

And if that isn't enough, experts -- including the DEA -- claim that the majority of drugs are coming through the controlled points of entry. Forgive me if I trust their analysis over your "guess."

 

[Pommer]

Hmmm if I’m a drug smuggler which route would I choose going thru a secured boarder checkpoint with armed guards and search dogs or out in the middle of friggin nowhere where nobody is around? It doesn’t take a genius to figure this out.

Okay, I’ll play:
Let’s say that you’re a Mexican Drug Lord.
Do you want to know exactly where your product is in your distribution network?
Is a three-four week delay between when you send it out and it gets to your territory acceptable?
Sending it out into the desert doesn’t sound like a sane business decision.

 

[Erik Nelson]

Okay, I’ll play:
Let’s say that you’re a Mexican Drug Lord.
Do you want to know exactly where your product is in your distribution network?
Is a three-four week delay between when you send it out and it gets to your territory acceptable?
Sending it out into the desert doesn’t sound like a sane business decision.

so, you are claiming you know how to think and act like a drug lord

so I hear you saying, that are you thinking and acting like one right NOW, as you oppose securing the border?

 

[mark46]

As you must know, it takes 60 votes in the Senate to pass money for a wall, or for any other immigration legislation.

I'm part of that 30% -- and I'm almost definitely voting against Trump. Granted, we'll see who the Democrats nominate. In this case, Trump went exactly opposite of what the people have stated they want (both the November elections and recent polling) -- and he did it by fiat, not by any type of compromise. He had two years with a Republican Congress to push the wall through -- and I think it says a lot that he couldn't get a Congress controlled by his party to pass funding for it. Instead, he declared an "emergency," even stating he didn't have to do it this way, only after the people voted and said they didn't want his wall, as well as not giving any meaningful compromise (such as a path to citizenship for Dreamers, which Trump once promised he would do) to get it into the budget.

 

[Erik Nelson]

... over 1.5 million pounds of drugs come across the southern border annually -- so over two tons per day. That would take a lot of drug mules to back pack across the desert -- and realistically each would likely be limited to 25 pounds or less -- particularly when you consider the water they'd need to carry for the trek.

Instead, it makes far more sense that they actually ship it in trucks through checkpoints, where they can put a few tons split between a few trucks. Yes, some gets caught at the border -- but most makes it through and prices are high enough that they can absorb the cost of the lost shipments.

And if that isn't enough, experts -- including the DEA -- claim that the majority of drugs are coming through the controlled points of entry. Forgive me if I trust their analysis over your "guess."

may I use your numbers?

1.5 million pounds per year / 15 pounds per mule = 100,000 mules per year

could a hundred thousand smugglers cross the unsecured border each year?

 

[Kaon]

People: think.

What organisations, powers or people have the resources to bring enough drugs over a superpower border to affect a large part of the population? It's not the dude on the block selling $5000/week worth of drugs. It isn't the mules who smuggle drugs in by the appendix/stomach-load.

Americans are being led to believe in a bogeyman created for their prejudices for the purposes of politics. And, many of us are willingly choosing to ignore the truth behind all of this. When it is our turn to be oppressed I to the dust, there should be no crying or wonder: it was brought to a head through an incredible history of ignorance, prejudice and a failure to remove the veil from their eyes placed there by design.

 

[Erik Nelson]

People: think.

What organisations, powers or people have the resources to bring enough drugs over a superpower border to affect a large part of the population? It's not the dude on the block selling $5000/week worth of drugs. It isn't the mules who smuggle drugs in by the appendix/stomach-load.

Americans are being led to believe in a bogeyman created for their prejudices for the purposes of politics. And, many of us are willingly choosing to ignore the truth behind all of this. When it is our turn to be oppressed I to the dust, there should be no crying or wonder: it was brought to a head through an incredible history of ignorance, prejudice and a failure to remove the veil from their eyes placed there by design.

i like to think

technically, to be a "homo SAPIENS" requires one to think

nobody is saying that the wall in America would affect drug plantations thousands of miles away on other continents

nobody thinks a wall would directly affect supply at the SOURCE, but rather DISTRIBUTION

so ironically, your post sets up a non-existing straw man

 

[Kaon]

i like to think

technically, to be a "homo SAPIENS" requires one to think

nobody is saying that the wall in America would affect drug plantations thousands of miles away on other continents

nobody thinks a wall would directly affect supply at the SOURCE, but rather DISTRIBUTION

so ironically, your post sets up a non-existing straw man

Plantations are not the ones bringing in drugs by the Gulfstream-5 load.

The entities bringing drugs over by the boat load and plane load are not limited by a wall... It is asinine to believe this. America is surrounded by a myriad of riverways, inlets and three major bodies of water.

As I said, going after the bogeyman set up for the population (based on the exploitation of their prejudice) is only going to harm the people. The entities with the resources to adapt their distribution and checkpoints are the real problem, but I am not going to name those entities.

Americans, yet again, are letting their prejudices and emotions guide their political and generational decisions. But, it isn't unique to Americans, they are just the youngest in Empire years, and haven't really experienced true crisis to understand when they are being had.

 

[CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN]

1) How are walls going to stop the cartels? Wont they just get rid of the problem. 2) As long as there is a market for illegal drugs. The costumer will find a way to get them.

 

[Pommer]

so, you are claiming you know how to think and act like a drug lord

so I hear you saying, that are you thinking and acting like one right NOW, as you oppose securing the border?

A. Your product is illegal
B. Your markup is 15000%
C. If your product gets into the hands of those who are outside of your direct control, then you may lose all of your wares
D. Your customers don’t want to travel to out-of-the-way places just to do business
E. Time is money


No.
You load five trucks with fifty kilos each and hope two get through, the rest is the cost of doing business.

 

[Nithavela]

This is a cite about politics, so I ask a political question or two.

Drugs flow by boat, by air, by truck, by car, and on foot. Drugs flow across legal ports of entry, and perhaps a bit in other ways. Much comes across the Mexican border. Some comes across the Atlantic into Florida.

Q1) What Democratic candidate will answer that the drugs coming from the South are not an emergency?
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As an aside,
Q2) Is the trafficking of women and children from the South an emergency? Which Democratic candidate will say that it is not.
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Q3) Are the millions who want to come as asylum seekers from Central America an emergency? Which Democratic will say no? Or, which Democratic candidate will say that we should give billions of aid, or accept hundreds of thousands of asylum seekers?
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Q4) Do the non-drug crimes committed by Mexican drug cartels constitute an emergency?
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BOTTOM LINE
Democrats do NOT have a winning issue here.

All they seem to want to do is point out Trump's lying in support of his positions. In the end, this does NOT matter. What matters is the perceived threat of drugs, trafficking of people, and gangs/cartels. The answer to people's fear is not to argue with Trump's lack of facts.

I think that what you have here is an abuse of the word "emergency"

"Emergency" doesn't mean "something bad we should propably do something about". An emergency by definition of the oxford dictionary is "A serious, unexpected, and often dangerous situation requiring immediate action."

While those things you mentioned are certainly serious, they are not unexpected, not dangerous on a national level and they don't require immediate action because action is already being taken and those efforts are already working, with all the indicators that would support a wall falling steadily.

Then again, this is from a bygone era when words used to mean something. These days, it's all about how words make people feel, so I guess you are correct and democrats can't win unless they somehow convince voters that the results of the wall are scarier than the results of not having a wall.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Conservatives should be demanding the most RATIONAL and EFFICIENT use of money to achieve the ends.

Who is the expert on securing the border whose opinions we can trust?

 

[Ana the Ist]

That is a weak argument; it isn't as though other areas of the border are not covered.

There are areas with little to no coverage.

Your argument really falls apart when you look at the studies that estimate over 1.5 million pounds of drugs come across the southern border annually -- so over two tons per day. That would take a lot of drug mules to back pack across the desert -- and realistically each would likely be limited to 25 pounds or less

They carry about twice that on average...and it's super risky. It's not risky because they might get caught, but because of cartel "rip crews" that camp known routes and murder mules for their drugs. Mules get paid....1000-3000$ for a 3-5 day job, which is both a total scam for the risks they take...but also good money for them.

-- particularly when you consider the water they'd need to carry for the trek.

Instead, it makes far more sense that they actually ship it in trucks through checkpoints, where they can put a few tons split between a few trucks. Yes, some gets caught at the border -- but most makes it through and prices are high enough that they can absorb the cost of the lost shipments.

And if that isn't enough, experts -- including the DEA -- claim that the majority of drugs are coming through the controlled points of entry. Forgive me if I trust their analysis over your "guess."

You're probably right...though it's not as if the DEA works ports or the border, so you should probably find the opinions of those who do.

Still Mexican drug cartels are murdering mostly young men who just want some money inside our borders...and that seems like the sort of thing we should stop.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

A. Your product is illegal
B. Your markup is 15000%
C. If your product gets into the hands of those who are outside of your direct control, then you may lose all of your wares
D. Your customers don’t want to travel to out-of-the-way places just to do business
E. Time is money


No.
You load five trucks with fifty kilos each and hope two get through, the rest is the cost of doing business.

Fifty kilos each? That is a lot! Produce trucks are so much more efficient than the old way of humans swallowing condoms of coke.

Of course, the people that actually fight the drug war know the best way is ship and airplane. Walls don’t stop those, but don’t tell the supporters of President Trump because THEY know the TRUTH!

The funny thing is the Coast Guard’s pay was held hostage for 35 days starting under a Republican controlled House, Senate, and Presidency. Even without being paid for the dangerous work of stopping drugs from entering the country the Coast Guard seized 35000 pounds or 17 ½ tons of cocaine worth $466 million US Dollars. Does that sound like a President that gives a squat about stopping drugs from entering?

So we have two potential business models at work here, one has hundreds of thousands of humans carrying small amounts across formidable terrain that a wall will surely stop and the other uses ships and airplanes calling at ports of entry delivering tons of product for quick and easy distribution to all the American citizens that use these items.

One of these is supported by a guy who has a history of failed and bankrupt business…

US Coast Guard seizes 35,000 pounds of cocaine in Pacific

US Coast Guard finds $466 million worth of cocaine on fishing boats

16.7 tonnes of cocaine seized by US Coast Guard

The Coast Guard's 'push-out-the-border strategy' is fighting drugs in the Pacific — and it just brought home $500 million in cocaine

Coast Guard seizes $47M in drugs - CNN Video

The US Coast Guard just offloaded over $170 million in cocaine from drug busts

 

[BNR32FAN]

That is a weak argument; it isn't as though other areas of the border are not covered.

Your argument really falls apart when you look at the studies that estimate over 1.5 million pounds of drugs come across the southern border annually -- so over two tons per day. That would take a lot of drug mules to back pack across the desert -- and realistically each would likely be limited to 25 pounds or less -- particularly when you consider the water they'd need to carry for the trek.

Instead, it makes far more sense that they actually ship it in trucks through checkpoints, where they can put a few tons split between a few trucks. Yes, some gets caught at the border -- but most makes it through and prices are high enough that they can absorb the cost of the lost shipments.

And if that isn't enough, experts -- including the DEA -- claim that the majority of drugs are coming through the controlled points of entry. Forgive me if I trust their analysis over your "guess."

I’m just saying their “analysis” is a guess and I’ve never met an illegal alien from Mexico who came into America thru a boarder checkpoint. And I’ve met a lot of them. They all avoid checkpoints like the plague. I think your estimate of a 25lbs max per mule is completely inaccurate. A person could easily carry twice that amount and for the right price could carry 4X that amount or more in a backpack. So realistically if all of the drugs were coming thru the approximately 1200 miles of unsecured areas that’s only 20-40 people per day which is not unreasonable. Of course I’m sure we can agree that not all of it is coming thru unsecured areas by mules so if only half is then we’re looking at 10-20 mules per day.

 

[mark46]

I agree that the Emergency Declaration should be overthrown. First, we will see just how much Senate Republicans will support the President. Clearly, this is not an emergency. Trump said that he didn't need to do this, and then flew off to play golf. The courts will likely hold up the $3.5B of military construction monies for months.
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HOWEVER, there is about $2B of money that is being moved without Congress having any say. Trump is using $600M of confiscated drug money. He is also using over $1B allocated to reduce drug traffic. Trump believes that one way of reducing drug flow is to have barrier fences at locations not included in the Congressional passed law. Congress approved 55 miles of new barrier fence, so Congress does not have any objection to barrier fences.

Trump is allowed to do this. Also, I don't find it terribly unreasonable for the Executive branch to choose which portion of the border to install new fencing. And yes, this also would allow new technology of fencing, not allowed in Congressional approved fencing. I do NOT believe that this is the best way to reduce drug flow at the border. However, it might do some good. Many of the other methods have been approved in law signed yesterday.

Congress has approved lots money for many methods. The only "deficiency" for Trump was the limitation in the amount of money for barrier fencing, and the limit on location and design of that fencing. With additional transfer of about $2B and the Congressional monies Trump will have more than he is likely to spend in this fiscal year or next.

Trump has baited and diverted Democrats with the Emergency Declaration which is clearly not needed; Trump said so. Let's see how much time and effort Democrats waste in the effort to oppose this meaningless transfer of a tiny portion of the military budget. Now, SURELY, the Democrats will support these construction items when they are part of the new budget that will come out soon.

I think that what you have here is an abuse of the word "emergency"

"Emergency" doesn't mean "something bad we should propably do something about". An emergency by definition of the oxford dictionary is "A serious, unexpected, and often dangerous situation requiring immediate action."

While those things you mentioned are certainly serious, they are not unexpected, not dangerous on a national level and they don't require immediate action because action is already being taken and those efforts are already working, with all the indicators that would support a wall falling steadily.

Then again, this is from a bygone era when words used to mean something. These days, it's all about how words make people feel, so I guess you are correct and democrats can't win unless they somehow convince voters that the results of the wall are scarier than the results of not having a wall.

 

[mark46]

In math, we used to call this an existence theorem.

Congress has decided that only 55 miles of new barrier can be built. Congress decided where these miles could be erected. Congress decided that the design and material must be already being used (no new style fencing or walls).

Trump wants additional barriers, probably of different materials and probably at other locations. In any case, he wants to be able to build more.
=======
Q) Is there anywhere not in the 55 miles along the border that new barriers will help reduce the flow of drugs, reduce some human trafficking, or some flow of those who would cross illegally?

Trump will have less than $2B to use for this fencing. It likely won't be used, but it might be because of the location and design restrictions in the new law.

Finally, will Trump's use of the confiscated drug money and the drug money approved to reduce the amount drugs be worse or better than the other use of the money? This money is drug enforcement money. It is not a winning issue to convince the voter that Congress should direct every mile of fencing in law, rather than allow some leeway in location and design.

.

Of course, the people that actually fight the drug war know the best way is ship and airplane. Walls don’t stop those, but don’t tell the supporters of President Trump because THEY know the TRUTH!

 

[BNR32FAN]

Okay, I’ll play:
Let’s say that you’re a Mexican Drug Lord.
Do you want to know exactly where your product is in your distribution network?
Is a three-four week delay between when you send it out and it gets to your territory acceptable?
Sending it out into the desert doesn’t sound like a sane business decision.

3-4 weeks? It’s a 60 mile hike to get past the boarder patrol checkpoints. So at an average walking speed of 2.5 miles per hour walking 10 hours a day your looking at 2.5-3 days for the package to arrive at a safe pick up point.

 

[BNR32FAN]

hmmm

The vast majority does indeed come over the secured border crossings, often in concealed compartments in trucks. So, perhaps these criminals have made a different analysis from yours.

They can only attest to what has been caught. Of course they’re going to catch more people crossing security checkpoints. They can’t give any kind of accurate number of how many actually make it across undetected. How can they count the ones they don’t know about?