Is Covid19 more deadly than Flu?

[mindlight]

Here is a good article on that and shows why people are thinking that it is no deadlier than the flu.

Clarifying the True Fatality Rate of Covid-19: Same as the Flu?



Mostly, it looks like people are confusing the CFR with the IFR. The CFR is cases showing symptoms where IFR is based on the number of people infected. CRF for the two is similar, while the IFR shows that COVID is higher.

Yes that is the article I read earlier , I should have quoted my source in OP, thanks for referencing it. That is about as definitive as we are going to get. IFR Flu = 0.1% , latest estimate IFR cv19 = 0.65 - 1%. So cv19 is between 6.5 and 10 times more deadly, has a higher R number and longer incubation period.

 

[mindlight]

like Nick Cordero? Remember him and what Covid did to him before he died ?

A great tragedy but for a 41 year old to suffer as he did is very much the exception rather than the rule. The risk for most healthy people under 65 is acceptable. It is the sick and old that need protecting

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

The risk for most healthy people under 65 is acceptable.

Acceptable by what criteria?

 

[mindlight]

Acceptable by what criteria?

We take a risk walking out the door, crossing the street, driving a car. If the risk of something is less than normal engagement with life, then we start to die anyway, if we do not take it. It is a cost benefit analysis but the risk of dying of covid19 for a healthy under 65 year old, taking proper precautions, is minimal enough not to worry about and ( for this group) is similar to that of flu about which few of us worried enough to change lifestyles for before this year. cv19 is however significantly more deadly for the old and the sick and all proper precautions should be taken to protect these from excess mortality

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

We take a risk walking out the door, crossing the street, driving a car. If the risk of something is less than normal engagement with life, then we start to die anyway, if we do not take it. It is a cost benefit analysis but the risk of dying of covid19 for a healthy under 65 year old, taking proper precautions, is minimal enough not to worry about and ( for this group) is similar to that of flu about which few of us worried enough to change lifestyles for before this year. cv19 is however significantly more deadly for the old and the sick and all proper precautions should be taken to protect these from excess mortality

The risk of death is not the only risk with Covid19. It is not like seasonal flu.

 

[NerdGirl]

Having gotten into a debate on the weekend with an antimasker I became more aware of an argument doing the rounds about how covid19 is no more deadly than flu.

Reading up on this I found this article from national geographic which suggests covid19 is 50-100 times more deadly.

How scientists know COVID-19 is way deadlier than the flu

But the death rate seems to have declined considerably since this article was written, possibly due to a new awareness of asymptomatic infections due to extensive testing. My latest readings are that the Infection-Fatality rate for Flu is <0.1% and that of covid19 somewhere between 0.65% and 1.46%. This would make covid19 between 6 and 15 times more deadly. Add in a longer incubation time and higher natural Reproduction rate and the disease is clearly far more of a threat.

Does any body have any more recent research on this? How would you argue with someone who thought that the science did not support the view that covid19 was more deadly?

I don't think a useful comparison can be made at this point, since Covid is still novel (new) and we don't understand it yet the way we understand influenza. Covid is more likely to strike fast and hard, and affect the young and healthy, because the global population doesn't yet have immunity or antibodies (though the more people who catch it and recover, this will improve) and we don't yet have an effective vaccine. It's hard to say whether it will be a seasonal or recurring virus, and whether a few years of having it circulate the globe might dampen down its effects significantly, and whether a vaccine will be effective.

Death rates from either disease are difficult to ascertain, since most deaths that involve the flu or Covid also involve other factors, like pneumonia or heart disease or diabetes. It's difficult to determine the ultimate cause of death in such cases.

We just have to wait and see for now.

 

[Brightmoon]

I don't think a useful comparison can be made at this point, since Covid is still novel (new) and we don't understand it yet the way we understand influenza. Covid is more likely to strike fast and hard, and affect the young and healthy, because the global population doesn't yet have immunity or antibodies (though the more people who catch it and recover, this will improve) and we don't yet have an effective vaccine. It's hard to say whether it will be a seasonal or recurring virus, and whether a few years of having it circulate the globe might dampen down its effects significantly, and whether a vaccine will be effective.

Death rates from either disease are difficult to ascertain, since most deaths that involve the flu or Covid also involve other factors, like pneumonia or heart disease or diabetes. It's difficult to determine the ultimate cause of death in such cases.

We just have to wait and see for now.

. This is the problem right here! You’re under the misunderstanding that Covid can’t cause these problems . It can and does . It forms tiny blood clots in some people that block circulation. In the heart that’s a heart attack . In a limb that can cause amputation ( which is what happened to Mr Cordero ) . Stroke if this happens in the brain . Severe problems of this happens in the liver or other major organ . The damage this virus also causes to the nervous system causes chronic fatigue , loss of balance , and brain fog ( along with the relatively small problem of losing your sense of smell) . IOW , YOU DONT WANT TO CATCH THIS !!!!!

IMHO not wearing a mask and not social distancing is the height of stupidity

 

[NerdGirl]

. This is the problem right here! You’re under the misunderstanding that Covid can’t cause these problems . It can and does . It forms tiny blood clots in some people that block circulation. In the heart that’s a heart attack . In a limb that can cause amputation ( which is what happened to Mr Cordero ) . Stroke if this happens in the brain . Severe problems of this happens in the liver or other major organ . The damage this virus also causes to the nervous system causes chronic fatigue , loss of balance , and brain fog ( along with the relatively small problem of losing your sense of smell) . IOW , YOU DONT WANT TO CATCH THIS !!!!!

IMHO not wearing a mask and not social distancing is the height of stupidity

These sorts of symptoms have been extraordinarily rare in Covid cases thus far. Most people recover just fine without needing any medical intervention.

I had Covid in February. It was incredibly nasty, but I have other health issues and a compromised immune system. I still didn't have any symptoms like the ones you mention.

Scare tactics don't help anyone. "Really bad things happen to a tiny percentage of people" isn't constructive in dealing with the public.

 

[Brightmoon]

Who told you that this was rare? And btw my youngest caught it . 6 of my neighbors weren’t so lucky , they died not all of them were old and sick ! Scare tactics lol , I feel lucky that only 6 people I knew died as I lived in one of the former epicenters of NYC

 

[hedrick]

These sorts of symptoms have been extraordinarily rare in Covid cases thus far. Most people recover just fine without needing any medical intervention.

That's not the only issue. There's some reason to think that even if you have what looks like a mild case, and recover fine, there could be effects on the heart: How Does COVID-19 Affect the Heart? - Cardiac / Heart Health, COVID-19, Featured, Health Topics - Hackensack Meridian Health. My impression of that article is that you wouldn't necessarily know the effects, but they could still show up in heart problems later. It's not clear how much later, though, because it's just some early findings.

 

[NerdGirl]

Who told you that this was rare? And btw my youngest caught it . 6 of my neighbors weren’t so lucky , they died not all of them were old and sick ! Scare tactics lol , I feel lucky that only 6 people I knew died as I lived in one of the former epicenters of NYC

The total death rate stands at 0.06% in the U.S.

How many people have had amputations directly caused by Covid? Here's one article about it, fairly recent, from September. The numbers of people suffering from these extreme symptoms are still incredibly tiny compared to the overall population. One study had 25 patients, another had 38, for example. Studies Note Increase In Amputations After Arrival Of COVID-19 Pandemic

We all know that NYC was hit especially hard. As you say, it was one of the epicenters of the disease in the U.S. I would expect higher incidents and death rates there.

 

[NerdGirl]

That's not the only issue. There's some reason to think that even if you have what looks like a mild case, and recover fine, there could be effects on the heart: How Does COVID-19 Affect the Heart? - Cardiac / Heart Health, COVID-19, Featured, Health Topics - Hackensack Meridian Health. My impression of that article is that you wouldn't necessarily know the effects, but they could still show up in heart problems later. It's not clear how much later, though, because it's just some early findings.

I agree. That's why I said we need to see how things progress over time with this disease. It's human nature to want to understand a threat as quickly as possible, and that's led to lots of leaping to conclusions and panic throughout the country, ever since this began.

 

[Brightmoon]

Wear that mask and social distance . YOU DONT WANT THIS!!!!!

 

[Brightmoon]

NYC was hard hit at first . But our gov had some sense and shut down the city . Less than 10 people a day are dying from this now , down from about 800 ( remember how crowded the city is ) . Now the epicenters have shifted NORTH DAKOTA Is currently one and numbers are spiking rapidly elsewhere.

 

[mindlight]

I don't think a useful comparison can be made at this point, since Covid is still novel (new) and we don't understand it yet the way we understand influenza. Covid is more likely to strike fast and hard, and affect the young and healthy, because the global population doesn't yet have immunity or antibodies (though the more people who catch it and recover, this will improve) and we don't yet have an effective vaccine. It's hard to say whether it will be a seasonal or recurring virus, and whether a few years of having it circulate the globe might dampen down its effects significantly, and whether a vaccine will be effective.

Death rates from either disease are difficult to ascertain, since most deaths that involve the flu or Covid also involve other factors, like pneumonia or heart disease or diabetes. It's difficult to determine the ultimate cause of death in such cases.

We just have to wait and see for now.

That's what I hear from most scientists I know. "We do not know enough to give you the hard facts and reports you are screaming for, but it is obvious that cv19 is dangerous and you need to take every precaution."

 

[essentialsaltes]

I saw someone arguing that if you remove all the old people from the calculation, and assume that we're undercounting cases by some factor, then the death rate is about the same for flu.

They seemed unconcerned that COVID-19 is removing old people from the calculation.

 

[DaveISBA]

The risk of death is not the only risk with covid19. It is not like seasonal flu.

The stats for covid-19 are not like those kept for the "seasonal flu" who stats, according to a chart by the CDC, are kept from Oct to May. I'm sure the flu doesn't stops in May but stats for covid19 never stop in an apparent attempt to create fear and panic!
Total covid-19 deaths according to the CDC are, key word,"involving" influenza, pneumonia! Deaths just from covid-19 are much less at 6% of the total deaths and no such additional involvements in deaths are given for past flus?

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

The stats for covid-19 are not like those kept for the "seasonal flu" who stats, according to a chart by the CDC, are kept from Oct to May. I'm sure the flu doesn't stops in May but stats for covid19 never stop in an apparent attempt to create fear and panic!
Total covid-19 deaths according to the CDC are, key word,"involving" influenza, pneumonia! Deaths just from covid-19 are much less at 6% of the total deaths and no such additional involvements in deaths are given for past flus?

Such conspiracy theories are of little interest to me. My point was that, in addition to its fatality risk, Covid-19 can have potentially serious long-term systemic effects that seasonal flu does not. When you encounter friends or family suffering those effects, it brings home what a nasty virus it can be.

 

[mindlight]

I saw someone arguing that if you remove all the old people from the calculation, and assume that we're undercounting cases by some factor, then the death rate is about the same for flu.

They seemed unconcerned that COVID-19 is removing old people from the calculation.

You did not hear that in this thread.

 

[DaveISBA]

Such conspiracy theories are of little interest to me. My point was that, in addition to its fatality risk, Covid-19 can have potentially serious long-term systemic effects that seasonal flu does not. When you encounter friends or family suffering those effects, it brings home what a nasty virus it can be.

Conspiracy theories? The covid-19 and flu information given are straight from The (CDC) Centers for Disease Control and Prevention!
COVID-19 Provisional Counts - Weekly Updates by Select Demographic and Geographic Characteristics

You can listen to the MSM's dire covid-19 news everyday, languish in and feed your fear of it if you like but God tells me He has not "given us the spirit of fear; but of power, and of love, and of a sound mind."