increasing earthquakes

[Chuck_Darwin]

I was at a philosophy discussion group last night at my local christain college(it is a mainstream reformed school).  The topic was "Does God exist?"  It was a lot of fun.  But here is the question about science.

Someone in the group(who has a PhD in psychology)  claimed that earthquakes have dramaticly(90% or more) increased in the recent(1990's) past.  This claim struck me as non-sense and I told him that I doubted the claim.  He told me that the data came from the USGS.  I was still very doubtful. 

So I went home and did a bit of research.  I found the USGS data and did a quick plot of it.  There is only 100 years of data and there was no incline in frequency if anything it has gone down but very slightly in the last 100 years. 

My question is:  Why would someone that should know better parrot such information as if were true?  This is a basic problem that I have encountered over and over again in my dealings with theist.  Is this a case of uncritically accepting a claim on his part or is it a pious lie or what? 

 

 

[notto]

I think that snopes.com should be required reading. Or at least a quick Google search. I think it has to do with what people want to believe. End times and all. It looks like myth is perpetrated by the end times groups and started with guys like this:

http://www.according2prophecy.org/41colleague.html

You would think that someone who is watching or prophecy would check their facts a bit more carefully.

USGS indeed.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/faq/myths.html
Q: Why are we having so many earthquakes? Has earthquake activity been increasing? Does this mean a big one is going to hit? OR We haven't had any earthquakes in a long time; does this mean that the pressure is building up and there will be a big one?

A: Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records, have actually seemed to decrease in recent years. A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more that 4,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by telex, computer and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years, and we are able to locate earthquakes more rapidly. The NEIC now locates about 12,000 to 14,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 35 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes. According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 18 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year. However, let's take a look at what has happened in the past 32 years, from 1969 through 2001, so far. Our records show that 1992, and 1995-1997 were the only years that we have reached or exceeded the long-term average number of major earthquakes since 1971. In 1970 and in 1971 we had 20 and 19 major earthquakes, respectively, but in other years the total was in many cases well below the 18 per year which we may expect based on the long-term average.

A temporal increase in earthquake activity does not mean that a large earthquake is about to happen. Similarly, quiescence, or the lack of seismicity, does not mean a large earthquake is going to happen.

See NEIC's Earthquake Statistics webpage for the tables of earthquake counts by magnitude and year.

 

[Arikay]

It makes me think of "year of the shark attack." When a year or two ago, everyone claimed that shark attacks had dramatically increase. When in reality they hadnt increased at all, and only the reporting and national news of the attacks increased. Or last years "increase in child abductions." but in reality, child abduction were actually down from the year before, the only change was that the reporting of them went up.

 

[ocean]

Earthquakes have not increased recently at all, if anything there have been less earthquakes.

(Fundamentalist Christians believe that increased earthquakes are sign of the "rapture".)

 

[Arikay]

I would agree, California hasnt had a large one for a little while.

 

[lucaspa]

Today at 03:07 PM Chuck_Darwin said this in Post #1

My question is:  Why would someone that should know better parrot such information as if were true?  This is a basic problem that I have encountered over and over again in my dealings with theist.  Is this a case of uncritically accepting a claim on his part or is it a pious lie or what?  

It's a phenomenon I've noticed among True Believers of whatever worldview. Claims that support the worldview are uncritically accepted simply because they support the worldview.  There seems to be no desire to check up on the claims.

That explains your psychology major.  However, it begs the question: why does a True Believer make the false claim in the first place?  That I have no idea.  Why does infidels.org tout Witham and Larsen's letter to the editor on the atheism of "greater scientists" when it did not make it thru peer review, there are obvious flaws with the conclusion, and Eugenie Scott in RNCSE critiqued the letter for methodological flaws?  I can't explain that one, either.

 

[Terak]

However, did you bother to take a look at their charts?

http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/eqstats.html

According to their charts worldwide earthquakes have increased from 16612 in 1990 to 25404 in 2002. That's nearly double over the past 12 years.

Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant throughout this century and, according to our records, have actually seemed to decrease in recent years.

It's specifically talking about higher magnitude earthquakes, not all earthquakes in general.

A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications.

This is indeed just a partial explanation, we really won't know for sure if they are increasing until they start monitoring the 'same' seismograph stations instead of just expanding to find more earthquakes.

It's interesting to watch and see what happens and according to the data so far they are indeed increasing but to know for sure we'll just have to keep an eye on the data over the next several years.

And the scriptures just state "Mat 24:7 For nation shall rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom: and there shall be famines, and pestilences, and earthquakes, in divers places."

It doesn't state they will be stronger or more fierce but rather they will appear in divers or various places.

Another cool site is here: http://www.iris.edu/seismon/

 

 

[webboffin]

UK has been hit by earthquakes last year. I felt one rumble under my place and was quite shaking considering we don't even normally notice one and it was not the first here so they are getting more noticeable now.

 

[Arikay]

Its really all a perception thing. We havnt been alive long enough to truly understand an increase in earth quakes. Its like flipping a coin and having it land on tails 7 of the 10 flips. Would you say that probability has shifted and tails is now 70% or would you say that we havnt seen enough flips to truly be able to see the correct probability?

 

[Terak]

Today at 08:24 PM Arikay said this in Post #9
Its really all a perception thing. We havnt been alive long enough to truly understand an increase in earth quakes. Its like flipping a coin and having it land on tails 7 of the 10 flips. Would you say that probability has shifted and tails is now 70% or would you say that we havnt seen enough flips to truly be able to see the correct probability?

But to say we haven't been tracking them long enough or that we lack the understanding doesn't mean they aren't increasing or happening in various, unusual places.

 

[Kookaburra]

I noticed on that site: (http://www.according2prophecy.org/41colleague.html) they didn't use proper grammer several times. Now, I'm suspicious about sites that claim things and back those claims up without proper grammer. Very suspicious.

 

[Jerry Smith]

Today at 10:14 PM Terak said this in Post #10

But to say we haven't been tracking them long enough or that we lack the understanding doesn't mean they aren't increasing or happening in various, unusual places.

Right. Our objections are to the people making the positive claims that they are increasing. We are saying the claim is without foundation, and is therefore a false claim.

If I told you that there was a dragon in my basement, then I would be, in effect, trying to make you believe that I had found a dragon in my basement. If you find out that I have never been in my basement (and cannot possibly have found a dragon there), then you wonder why I was misleading you. If I turn around and say that simply because I have not been in my basement and actually seen a dragon doesn't mean there isn't one there, you will not accept this excuse for my false claim.

 

[Terak]

Today at 09:44 PM Jerry Smith said this in Post #12Right. Our objections are to the people making the positive claims that they are increasing. We are saying the claim is without foundation, and is therefore a false claim.

*nod*

Although, based on the chart from USGS over the past 12 years it would appear as though they are indeed increasing. To know for sure we would have to find out how many seismograph stations they have added over that 12 year period.

And I would agree with you. It's not good to claim something as fact if indeed you don't have the facts. Sometimes people get a little ahead of themselves and say something without really finding out the facts first, which is what James warns us of:

"James 1:19  Wherefore, my beloved brethren, let every man be swift to hear, slow to speak, slow to wrath"

And I'll admit, I've done it before and end up accepting the mistake and apologizing for it.

 

[Arikay]

Nope but it also doesnt prove that they are. Lack of information doesnt prove something as true.

After the Northridge, California earthquake, many, many more small faults were found in our area. Including one running behind my elementary school. It was believed one of the After shocks we felt was actually an earthquake from that fault. So new faults are appearing all the time, and go off at different times. Just like there are some rather large faults running under New York. Many people worry that if they go off it might destroy many things as the building code isnt the same in New York as it is in california. If the faults under New York go, it doesnt mean its a sign of the Appocalyse, just that they finally decided to go. Not being part of the ring of fire, they arent a common thing to happen, but they still might.

Dont believe everything you read. Many large and supposably reputable newspapers and magazines printed the headlines of "The year of the shark attack" or "Shark attacks on the rise" a couple years ago. But if you check the facts, shark attacks didnt increase at all, only peoples awareness of them.

Today at 07:14 PM Terak said this in Post #10 (http://www.christianforums.com/showthread.php?postid=655849#post655849)

But to say we haven't been tracking them long enough or that we lack the understanding doesn't mean they aren't increasing or happening in various, unusual places.

 

[Terak]

Today at 10:12 PM Arikay said this in Post #14
Nope but it also doesnt prove that they are. Lack of information doesnt prove something as true.

After the Northridge, California earthquake, many, many more small faults were found in our area. Including one running behind my elementary school. It was believed one of the After shocks we felt was actually an earthquake from that fault. So new faults are appearing all the time, and go off at different times. Just like there are some rather large faults running under New York. Many people worry that if they go off it might destroy many things as the building code isnt the same in New York as it is in california. If the faults under New York go, it doesnt mean its a sign of the Appocalyse, just that they finally decided to go. Not being part of the ring of fire, they arent a common thing to happen, but they still might.

Dont believe everything you read. Many large and supposably reputable newspapers and magazines printed the headlines of "The year of the shark attack" or "Shark attacks on the rise" a couple years ago. But if you check the facts, shark attacks didnt increase at all, only peoples awareness of them.

I understand you fully.

 

[Terak]

I e-mailed the USGS asking about the earthquakes and here's what they responded with:

The world seismicity is not increasing, but we are able to detect more earthquakes with more and better equipment.

Perhaps a better indication of earthquake frequency trends would be provided by the list of magnitude 7+ events from 1900 to 1999 listed at http://neic.usgs.gov/neis/eqlists/7up.html

So, it seems that according to them more earthquakes are not happening whether above or below 7+ magnitudes. Although, the average seems to have increased from 18 to 20. Anyhow, I was glad they responded to the e-mail.

 

[Jerry Smith]

Terak: I like your approach. Let me just add that an apparent increase over a few decades of accurate measurement means little unless it is a very substantial increase. There will always be periods of higher, and periods of lower, seismic activity. That comes from the stochatic nature of this kind of activity.

 

[Red Panda]

14th February 2003 at 08:07 PM Chuck_Darwin said this in Post #1

I was at a philosophy discussion group last night at my local christain college(it is a mainstream reformed school).  The topic was "Does God exist?"  It was a lot of fun.  But here is the question about science.

Someone in the group(who has a PhD in psychology)  claimed that earthquakes have dramaticly(90% or more) increased in the recent(1990's) past.  This claim struck me as non-sense and I told him that I doubted the claim.  He told me that the data came from the USGS.  I was still very doubtful. 

So I went home and did a bit of research.  I found the USGS data and did a quick plot of it.  There is only 100 years of data and there was no incline in frequency if anything it has gone down but very slightly in the last 100 years. 

My question is:  Why would someone that should know better parrot such information as if were true?  This is a basic problem that I have encountered over and over again in my dealings with theist.  Is this a case of uncritically accepting a claim on his part or is it a pious lie or what? 

 

If the conclusion is already assumed to be true before any research is done, then supporting 'evidence' isn't really examined very carefully. 

By that I mean, if you start with the pre-supposition that something (in this case, an end-time prophecy) absolutely MUST be true, then any 'evidence' you find that reinforces that belief is accepted as true.  Even if the evidence doesn't hold up when examined closely.

Such an approach ignores the logical fallacy, of course, that an end *could* be true, but the evidence for it could still be wrong. 

Just my 0.02 worth.




 

 

[Cantuar]

Reminds me of a really frustrating discussion with a pentecostal reconstructionist on another board, who was saying that one sign that the End Times are just around the corner is that Israel is now the world's largest producer of citrus (apparently this has something to do with end-times prophecy). No amount of data from national and international government and independent groups showing that Florida alone out-produced Israel by a wide margin, even before you add in the other states in the USA that produce citrus, would convince her. Her reasoning was that she'd read it in a book written by a Christian and Christians don't lie and that was that.

 

[Terak]

Yes, sometimes we just take peoples words for things without investigating very much first. I've been known to do that and that's why I examine nearly everything now, especially if I expect to defend the view that I hold.

Just like this, I was hoping their answer would be "Yeah, of course there are more" but that wasn't the answer I got. But, then again, I guess it doesn't matter because the bible doesn't say that there will be more but rather they will be happening in various places so it doesn't matter if there are more or not.

Either way, it's interesting and I look forward to seeing things come about in the years to come. I'm excited to be living in the times that we're living in.