If Roe vs Wade is overturned, will the GOP lose in 2022?

[Basil the Great]

Most experts now expect Republicans to retake the House next year and possibly the Senate as well. However, a huge uproar over the abortion issue could cause a shift in the odds and keep both chambers under Democratic control. What think ye?

 

[timothyu]

That depends on whether the Catholic vote it was intended for returns to the Democrat side.

 

[chevyontheriver]

Most experts now expect Republicans to retake the House next year and possibly the Senate as well. However, a huge uproar over the abortion issue could cause a shift in the odds and keep both chambers under Democratic control. What think ye?

If Roe v Wade is overturned there will be plenty of Democrats acting badly. The whole electoral calculus would be very unpredictable. Catholic voters are not all that unpredictable, but for myself I was a Democrat until pushed to the door because of my disapproval of abortion. I'm not likely to forget that, particularly if Democrats throw violent temper tantrums if they lose Roe v Wade.

 

[Sketcher]

Is there some blockbuster case that's going to cause Roe vs. Wade to be overturned coming through the pipeline? Because we know that Washington won't pass legislation that would overturn it with Democrat majorities.

 

[chevyontheriver]

That depends on whether the Catholic vote it was intended for returns to the Democrat side.

Democrats and Catholics had lots of common ground a few generations ago. But the Democrats of today are not grandpa's Democrats. I'd be happy with an unDemocrat unRepublican political option. The Democrats, if Roe v Wade is overturned, are going to be the strident party of over-overturning Roe v Wade. They will be unsufferable. And if Roe v Wade is upheld they will consider that a mandate to expand abortion access. They will be unsufferable that way too. No point being a Catholic and a Democrat. Pick one and give up on the other.

 

[chevyontheriver]

Is there some blockbuster case that's going to cause Roe vs. Wade to be overturned coming through the pipeline? Because we know that Washington won't pass legislation that would overturn it with Democrat majorities.

Yup. Oral arguments are in December and a ruling likely in January. They would not likely have taken the case if there was no prospect for a humongous change.

 

[timothyu]

Both sides must seem powerless having no vote in the outcome. lol

 

[chevyontheriver]

Both sides must seem powerless having no vote in the outcome. lol

It's whatever nine folks decide.

Last time nine folks decided it put a nasty tear in the body politic that has not healed.

I do expect the protests are all arranged if the ruling is not in favor of the status quo. Good thing it is winter.

 

[Basil the Great]

Is there some blockbuster case that's going to cause Roe vs. Wade to be overturned coming through the pipeline? Because we know that Washington won't pass legislation that would overturn it with Democrat majorities.

Yes, it is the Mississippi abortion case that is up before the Supreme Court.

 

[grasping the after wind]

Most experts now expect Republicans to retake the House next year and possibly the Senate as well. However, a huge uproar over the abortion issue could cause a shift in the odds and keep both chambers under Democratic control. What think ye?

I don't see that as very likely. Even if the Court Overturned R v W , which is doubtful, abortion would not be outlawed in the places where the majority of people favored it being legal. Most likely it would not have much effect on abortion availability except for a very few states where it being unavailable might be popular.

 

[CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN]

Most experts now expect Republicans to retake the House next year and possibly the Senate as well. However, a huge uproar over the abortion issue could cause a shift in the odds and keep both chambers under Democratic control. What think ye?

If Roe vs Wade is overturned. Women will seek abortion pills over the internet, or have abortions in a different state. There's just too much access for abortions.

 

[Basil the Great]

I don't see that as very likely. Even if the Court Overturned R v W , which is doubtful, abortion would not be outlawed in the places where the majority of people favored it being legal. Most likely it would not have much effect on abortion availability except for a very few states where it being unavailable might be popular.

Your point is well taken and in reality, is quite true. Nevertheless, I still think that enough suburban women might be upset enough to cost the GOP at the polls, despite the fact that most of them would not have to worry about access to an abortion.

 

[dogs4thewin]

Actually, what I see happening if the ruling is overturned is that it will become a state by state issue.

 

[Basil the Great]

Actually, what I see happening if the ruling is overturned is that it will become a state by state issue.

That is indeed correct. The abortion issue then goes back to the 50 states to decide.

 

[timothyu]

The original count

Nevertheless, I still think that enough suburban women might be upset enough to cost the GOP at the polls, despite the fact that most of them would not have to worry about access to an abortion.

That's not what their mothers said.

 

[dogs4thewin]

The original count

That's not what their mothers said.

but it is not what their mothers said it is what they say.

 

[Silverback]

Most experts now expect Republicans to retake the House next year and possibly the Senate as well. However, a huge uproar over the abortion issue could cause a shift in the odds and keep both chambers under Democratic control. What think ye?

It could happen, sadly though, I think it will stand. If ROE vs WADE were to be found unconstitutional, then look for a major push to stack the court.

 

[durangodawood]

That is indeed correct. The abortion issue then goes back to the 50 states to decide.

Which gives D's something to get hot about. Theyve been fairly lukewarm without Trump to hate.

R's meanwhile are all hotted up over nonsense like CRT and the "stolen election".

 

[dogs4thewin]

It could happen, sadly though, I think it will stand. If ROE vs WADE were to be found unconstitutional, then look for a major push to stack the court.

that would require another case to be brought before that would "work".

 

[Pommer]

That is indeed correct. The abortion issue then goes back to the 50 states to decide.

The question then becomes “how much control does a woman have over her own bodily autonomy, (Constitutionally speaking)?”