Heat wave, Fire, Flood and Hurricane

[Halbhh]

You do realize I hope that you are not seeing the actual fires, but rather what someone colored in with a red marker?

of course! Did you feel that's not clear enough? It's the first thing to notice I thought. They used that simple graphic symbol to keep that clear that these are simply fire locations.

On the map link you posted above in post #164, I expect the fire areas are artificially colored, right? This is pretty normal.

Do you think there are not fires in Siberia???

 

[ZNP]

 

[ZNP]

 

[ZNP]

 

[Halbhh]

Both the Republican and Democratic parties as they are are more like a reflection of where the people are at culturally -- just reflections -- instead of being the cause of where the people are at.

If one had to choose more dangerous and a less dangerous version of lostness, the less dangerous one would be those simply not knowing about God (accurately) == some of them will find Him, and be saved! == but the more dangerous lostness would be to pretend/imagine/claim one knows of God, while really ignoring God by not listening to His Words and commands to us --

John 9:41 "If you were blind," Jesus replied, "you would not be guilty of sin. But since you claim you can see, your guilt remains."

!

 

[ZNP]

Both the Republican and Democratic parties as they are are more like a reflection of where the people are at culturally -- just reflections -- instead of being the cause of where the people are at.

If one had to choose more dangerous and a less dangerous version of lostness, the less dangerous one would be those simply not knowing about God (accurately) == some of them will find Him, and be saved! == but the more dangerous lostness would be to pretend/imagine/claim one knows of God, while really ignoring God by not listening to His Words and commands to us --

John 9:41 "If you were blind," Jesus replied, "you would not be guilty of sin. But since you claim you can see, your guilt remains."

!

The apostasy

 

[johneb]

On the map link you posted above in post #164, I expect the fire areas are artificially colored, right? This is pretty normal.

The color in areas tend to be larger than the fire actually is.

 

[ZNP]

12 If anyone builds on this foundation using gold, silver, costly stones, wood, hay or straw, 13 their work will be shown for what it is, because the Day will bring it to light. It will be revealed with fire, and the fire will test the quality of each person’s work. 14 If what has been built survives, the builder will receive a reward. 15 If it is burned up, the builder will suffer loss but yet will be saved—even though only as one escaping through the flames.

Remember the Lord's word about the tower of Siloam, this should be a warning to all of us.

 

[johneb]

Chicken little never rests.

 

[johneb]

Do you think there are not fires in Siberia???

Do you think you know the extent of the fires in Siberia, or are you just believing what you are told???

 

[Halbhh]

Do you think you know the extent of the fires in Siberia, or are you just believing what you are told???

I'm confident that satellites can detect fires, and that NASA will continue to perform as I've seen in the past, when I sometimes check on their reports. One could best go and verify independently, if they never have -- if you've never gone to the effort (as I have several times) of checking something NASA said by independent sources, then it's a good general practice to check at least once or twice, for all sources.

Now, as it so happens, we've reports of the fires in Siberia from diverse sources already.

Not just 1 source.

Example:
On Thursday, the Russian weather service said wildfires this year have already covered an area that is 9.6 percent larger than last year over the same period.

https://phys.org/news/2020-07-wildfires-siberia-weather.html

 

[Jonathan Walkerin]

Should we run to the cave?

It is a symptom of a climate change not a meteor shower so running to caves seems pretty futile.

 

[ZNP]

Chicken little never rests.

 

[johneb]

We've seen Twenty five years of fuel load build up in the forests of California, Oregon and Washington since the environmentalist movement shut down logging, do your research and get your facts straight before you post garbage.

 

[ZNP]

We've seen Twenty five years of fuel load build up in the forests of California, Oregon and Washington since the environmentalist movement shut down logging, do your research and get your facts straight before you post garbage.

The science connecting wildfires to climate change

CLIMATE CHANGE HAS inexorably stacked the deck in favor of bigger and more intense fires across the American West over the past few decades, science has incontrovertibly shown. Increasing heat, changing rain and snow patterns, shifts in plant communities, and other climate-related changes have vastly increased the likelihood that fires will start more often and burn more intensely and widely than they have in the past.

The scale and intensity of the wildfires burning across the western U.S. right now is “staggering,” says Philip Higuera, a wildfire scientist and paleoecologist at the University of Montana. More than five million acres have already burned this year—and much more may be yet to come.

Higher temperatures and drought increase

the potential for wildfire.

Climate change exacerbates the factors that create perfect fire conditions. Lower

precipitation and warmer air temperatures dry the forests and other vegetation. Add

strong winds and decades of fire suppression into the mix and you have a dangerous

recipe for wildfire.

Noah Diffenbaugh, a climate scientist at Stanford University, makes a baseball analogy to describe increase in risk. “If there’s a three-run home run in baseball, it’s the home run that definitely caused the runners to round the bases and score. The home run is the proximal cause of the event. But people being on base matters," he says, and global warming is putting people on base.

Other factors also hike fire risk, like forest management decisions that have allowed for the buildup of vast amounts of vegetation that can quickly turn into fuel, as well as more problematic issues like the slow creep of houses and other infrastructure into risky areas. But for fires near that so-called wildland-urban interface, as well as more remote, forest-centered burns, climate change has significantly heightened the baseline risks.

Heat like a thirsty sponge
In some ways, fire is simple. It takes three components: the right weather and climate conditions, plenty of burnable fuel, and a spark.

“People are changing all three of those,” says Jennifer Balch, a fire ecologist at the University of Colorado, Boulder. “Climate change is not the only thing going on, but it is a big and important part of the story.” (Human-caused ignitions are clearly a major part of the risk: A study published in September, on which Balch was a co-author, found that humans were responsible for 97 percent of the ignitions that caused fires that then threatened homes in the wildland-urban interface, between 1992 and 2015).

Climate change has affected the first two components (and in some cases, the third) in clear, measurable ways that have become increasingly obvious over the past few decades.

The clearest connection is with warming air temperatures. The planet has heated up nearly continuously since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the late 1800s, when humans started burning massive quantities of fossil fuels, releasing carbon dioxide that traps excess heat in the atmosphere. Since then, global average temperatures have ticked up roughly 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius); California’s change is closer to 3 degrees Fahrenheit. Warming has accelerated since the 1980s to just under 0.2 degrees Celsius (0.3 degrees F) per decade, and it's likely to accelerate further in the future.

That might not seem like very much warming, but just a little can go a long way. Hot air, if it’s not at 100 percent humidity, is like a thirsty sponge: It soaks up water from whatever it touches—plants (living or dead) and soil, lakes and rivers. The hotter and drier the air, the more it sucks up, and the amount of water it can hold increases exponentially as the temperature rises; small increases in the air's heat can mean big increases in the intensity with which it pulls out water. Scientists can measure this "vapor pressure deficit"—the difference between how much water the air holds and how much it could hold. If that deficit is cranked up for a long time, soils and vegetation will parch.

Climate change intensifies wildfires in the West.

Fire radiative power (FRP) is the rate of radiant heat emitted by a fire. California and Oregon’s

2020 fire season has the highest fire intensity of the past 18 years...

Changing rains, changing snows
Climate change is messing with the seasonal rain and snow patterns across the Western U.S., too—one of the other factors that controls fire risk...

The bottom line
So climate change has increased fire risk in both direct and indirect ways. When an ignition happens, even if it’s natural— like the unusual and dramatic lightning swarm that hit the Bay Area in August—the chances of it spawning a big fire are much higher than they would be, absent climate change. Overall, over the past few decades in California, the annual average area burned increased fivefold.

Today’s fires are both shocking and wholly expected, say many researchers. “That’s the tricky thing about fires—it isn’t any one thing that’s causing them, it’s multiple puzzle pieces fitting together,” says Balch. Climate change. Forest management. Human behavior. Learning to adapt to the new reality and mitigate risks requires swift, decisive action from many different angles, she says.

 

[ZNP]

We've seen Twenty five years of fuel load build up in the forests of California, Oregon and Washington since the environmentalist movement shut down logging, do your research and get your facts straight before you post garbage.

Satellite Data Record Shows Climate Change's Impact on Fires – Climate Change: Vital Signs of the Planet

Hot and dry. These are the watchwords for large fires. While every fire needs a spark to ignite and fuel to burn, the hot and dry conditions in the atmosphere determine the likelihood of a fire starting, its intensity and the speed at which it spreads. Over the past several decades, as the world has increasingly warmed, so has its potential to burn.

Since 1880, the world has warmed by 1.9 degrees Fahrenheit (1.09 degrees Celsius), with the five warmest years on record occurring in the last five years. Since the 1980s, the wildfire season has lengthened across a quarter of the world's vegetated surface, and in some places like California, fire has become nearly a year-round risk. The year 2018 was California's worst wildfire season on record, on the heels of a devasting 2017 fire season. In 2019, wildfires have already burned 2.5 million acres in Alaska in an extreme fire season driven by high temperatures, which have also led to massive fires in Siberia.

Whether started naturally or by people, fires worldwide and the resulting smoke emissions and burned areas have been observed by NASA satellites from space for two decades. Combined with data collected and analyzed by scientists and forest managers on the ground, researchers at NASA, other U.S. agencies and universities are beginning to draw into focus the interplay between fires, climate and humans.

"Our ability to track fires in a concerted way over the last 20 years with satellite data has captured large-scale trends, such as increased fire activity, consistent with a warming climate in places like the western U.S., Canada and other parts of Northern Hemisphere forests where fuels are abundant," said Doug Morton, chief of the Biospheric Sciences Laboratory at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland. "Where warming and drying climate has increased the risk of fires, we’ve seen an increase in burning."

A Hotter, Drier World
High temperatures and low humidity are two essential factors behind the rise in fire risk and activity, affecting fire behavior from its ignition to its spread. Even before a fire starts, they set the stage, said Jim Randerson, an Earth system scientist at the University of California, Irvine who studies fires both in the field and with satellite data.

He and his colleagues studied the abundance of lightning strikes in the 2015 Alaskan fire season that burned a record 5.1 million acres. Lightning strikes are the main natural cause of fires. The researchers found an unusually high number of lightning strikes occurred, generated by the warmer temperatures that cause the atmosphere to create more convective systems — thunderstorms — which ultimately contributed to more burned area that year.

Hotter and drier conditions also set the stage for human-ignited fires. "In the Western U.S., people are accidentally igniting fires all the time," Randerson said. "But when we have a period of extreme weather, high temperatures, low humidity, then it’s more likely that typical outdoor activity might lead to an accidental fire that quickly gets out of control and becomes a large wildfire."

For example, in 2018 sparks flying from hammering a concrete stake into the ground in 100-degree Fahrenheit heat and sparks from a car's tire rim scraping against the asphalt after a flat tire were the causes of California's devastatingly destructive Ranch and Carr Fires, respectively. These sparks quickly ignited the vegetation that was dried out and made extremely flammable by the same extreme heat and low humidity, which research also shows can contribute to a fire's rapid and uncontrollable spread, Randerson said. The same conditions make it more likely for agricultural fires to get out of control.

A warming world also has another consequence that may be contributing to fire conditions persisting over multiple days where they otherwise might not have in the past: higher nighttime temperatures.

"Warmer nighttime temperature allow fires to burn through the night and burn more intensely, and that allows fires to spread over multiple days where previously, cooler nighttime temperatures might have weakened or extinguished the fire after only one day," Morton said.

 

[ZNP]

We've seen Twenty five years of fuel load build up in the forests of California, Oregon and Washington since the environmentalist movement shut down logging, do your research and get your facts straight before you post garbage.

Will global warming produce more frequent and more intense wildfires?
There isn’t a direct relationship between climate change and fire, but researchers have found strong correlations between warm summer temperatures and large fire years, so there is general consensus that fire occurrence will increase with climate change.

Hot, dry conditions, however, do not automatically mean fire—something needs to create the spark and actually start the fire. In some parts of the country (like Alaska), most fires are ignited by lightning. In other regions (like California), most fires are ignited by humans.

Climate models tell us that average summer temperatures will continue to increase through this century, but ignition is the wild card. What will happen in the future is a more complicated story because we don’t understand what will happen with convective storms and the lightning.


https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/will-glob...s_science_products=0#qt-news_science_products

 

[johneb]

I tend believe what I see more than what I hear. I have lived in the pacific northwest for over forty years I can assure you, you are being mislead.

 

[ZNP]

I tend believe what I see more than what I hear. I have lived in the pacific northwest for over forty years I can assure you, you are being mislead.

I am well aware that there are those trying to mislead us on this issue. But National Geographic is famous for making sure you see what they see, so is NASA and USGS are a reliable scientific organization to look to when I do my homework. I have quoted those three. Who are you?

 

[ZNP]

Chicken little never rests.

It's hard to rest when the smoke makes it hard to breathe