DeathMagus
Stater of the Obvious
- Jul 17, 2007
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Doubt it. The cost-benefit curves will converge at some point and alternatives will be developed. I really doubt it will be a sudden collapse of deposits. As the supply decreases, the cost will rise. It won't happen over night.
The oil supply doesn't have to tank overnight - it only need happen faster than the alternatives can be adequately researched and deployed. Yes, as more money is pumped in, research will speed up - but there's still a minimum time frame for testing, prototyping, and initial manufacture. I'd rather let proven alternatives sit on a shelf for the five years before we need them because we started a bit earlier than we had to, than have to deal with a decade of obscenely expensive energy because it turned out to be harder than we anticipated to make the transition.
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