Your premise is incorrect to begin with free will is not defined as the ability to make decision independent of prior events. It is simply the ability to make decision independent of a present external forces.
So prior events, our now very familiar antecedent conditions, play no part in your decision making? I can point out some very obvious ones if you like. Your age, your upbringing, your education, your culture, your diet, your sex, your IQ, your health, your mood, your marital status...do I need to go on? Are you saying that they don't, in some way, determine the decisions you make?
Take for example your broken guitar string. From the point you are aware of the situation you have the ability to select multiple actions such as buy a new string, just not bother or borrow a friend's guitar instead. Determinism would be regardless you wanted to buy a new string an external force controls you to borrow from a friend even at your protest.
We're not considering anything that forces you to make a decision. This was discussed very early on. Being constrained to do something is the very opposite of doing it as a result of a free will decision. Yes, I had choices when the string broke. But making choices doesn't equate to free will. Decision making doesn't mean that free will therefore exists. So I made a choice and it determined what happened from that point on. If I hadn't broken it then I wouldn't have driven to the next suburb to buy another, so the fact that it broke was one of the antecedent conditions which determined my breakfast.
When people say they had no choice they meant they had no beneficial choices. You have to go grab lunch because you're hungry. You always have a choice to not grab lunch and continue to be hungry. Your hunger might be a determinant of a prior event but doesn't mean your reaction is determinism.
And no free will doesn't equate to having no choices. Beneficial or not. You can have multiple choices and you'll choose one with or without free will.
If you are hungry that is most definitely one of the determinants for what you might decide to do. But there'll be a monstrous number of others. Are you unwell? Is food available? Do you have something more important to do? Are you trying to lose weight? Should the only food available go to your children? Is the food something you don't like? Is it affordable? Out of those conditions pne will determine your choice. That is plainly obvious.
Something has to determine it. Else it will be a random decision.
Exitance is not deterministic.
Then give me an effect without a cause.
Deterministic is always a hindsight conclusion.
This has been covered. You can always tell in hindsight what some of the conditions which determined your choice were. But you'll never know what they all were. The number is virtually infinite. So you can rarely take one in advance and predict a decision. How would I know that breaking a string one evening would be one of the antecedent conditions that determined my breakfast the following day? But it obviously and undeniably was.
Events will always happen that will shift the choices people will make. That doesn't made the choices made deterministic.
That really doesn't make any sense as an argument against free will. When you say that 'events will always happen that will shift the choices people will make', that is
exactly the point I am making. That events will determine the choices you make.
Also the fact that you can reason that free will is an illusion is prove that free will is not an illusion. Determinism will ensure you are not aware of the free will itself.
Determinism has ensured that antecedent conditions (me reading umpteen authors and reams of literature on free will over very many years) have determined that I know it doesn't exist. I know it feels like I have free will. So those two premises can only lead to the conclusion that it's an illusion.
Like a machine you will follow a preordained instruction to its logical end. Unless you're fully aware with certainty of a future point and all actions that lead to it without variations then and only then you can say all are determinism.
Prediction of future events is not possible. Breaking that string (and that is a monstrously simple example) couldn't possibly predict what I would have for breakfast. And the lack of an ability to predict an outcome does not mean that a system is indeterminate.