Everyone expected a recession. The Fed and White House found a way out.

[iluvatar5150]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/12/18/recession-economy-inflation/

As 2023 winds to a close, Powell and his colleagues are far from declaring victory on inflation. They routinely caution that their actions could be thwarted by any number of threats, from war in the Middle East to China’s economic slowdown. Americans are upset about the high costs of rent, groceries and other basics, which aren’t going back to pre-pandemic levels. The White House, too, is quick to emphasize that much work remains.

Yet the economy is ending the year in a remarkably better position than almost anyone on Wall Street or in mainstream economics had predicted, having bested just about all expectations time and again. Inflation has dropped to 3.1 percent, from a peak of 9.1. The unemployment rate is at a hot 3.7 percent, and the economy grew at a healthy clip in the most recent quarter. The Fed is probably finished hiking interest rates and is eyeing cuts next year. Financial markets are at or near all-time highs, and the S&P 500 could hit a new record this week, too.

That strength and stability — defying even many of the most optimistic predictions — represents a remarkable development after seemingly endless economic crises that started with the 2020 coronavirus pandemic and continued through an inflation spike that the bank and the White House were slow to recognize.

 

[JustOneWay]

Trump would have fixed all of this in February 2021 with a few perfect phone calls.

/s

 

[USincognito]

That's great, but gas is $3 so I'm voting for the guy who's promising to be a dictator "for one day".

 

[Richard T]

No accolades, the budget is busted. Biden is the number one budget buster. In 1972 Biden became a Senator. the public debt was 450 billion, now it is 33.9 trillion. So 33 trillion created on Biden's watch if i just assign him a simple Senate role. I get this by the debt since 1972 divided by the number of senators. Biden personally is responsible for at least 330 billion dollars of deficits; more than any politician in the history of the world.

. Not too mention all the off the books debt and promises that have already been made for the future, the 60 plus billion trade deficit that is unaddressed and the only end in sight for both parties is to spend more. Trump is guilty too, Reagan, Bush, every elected member in Congress since 1972 that voted for any budget except for the 1-2 years of Clinton's surplus.

You might think this does not matter. Ok, well is any end in sight? What if there is a war? Notice we are at debt to GDP levels of WWII, but no war has started. If it did you think the dollar is worth much when the government doubles or triples the deficits? Even worse the USA encouraged other nations to take debt too. Insanity to not have the guts to spend or tax within your means.

 

[JustOneWay]

No accolades, the budget is busted. Biden is the number one budget buster. In 1972 Biden became a Senator. the public debt was 450 billion, now it is 33.9 trillion. So 33 trillion created on Biden's watch if i just assign him a simple Senate role. I get this by the debt divided by the number of senators Biden personally is responsible for at least 339 billion dollars of deficits more than any politician in the history of the world.

. Not too mention all the off the books debt and promises that have already been made for the future, the 60 plus billion trade deficit that is unaddressed and the only end in sight for both parties is to spend more.

Biden is not the CFO of the country. Perhaps you should look to who creates the budgets and sends the budget to be signed by the President.

By the way, the math you posted is atrocious.

 

[NxNW]

No accolades, the budget is busted. Biden is the number one budget buster. In 1972 Biden became a Senator. the public debt was 450 billion, now it is 33.9 trillion. So 33 trillion created on Biden's watch if i just assign him a simple Senate role. I get this by the debt since 1972 divided by the number of senators. Biden personally is responsible for at least 330 billion dollars of deficits; more than any politician in the history of the world.

Ronald Reagan proved that deficits don't matter.
- Dick Cheney 2002

 

[Richard T]

Biden is not the CFO of the country. Perhaps you should look to who creates the budgets and sends the budget to be signed by the President.

By the way, the math you posted is atrocious.

 

[Richard T]

Here is the budget process:

1. "Federal agencies create budget requests and submit them to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
2. OMB refers to the agencies’ requests as it develops the budget proposal for the president.
3. The president submits the budget proposal to Congress early the next year.
4. Proposed funding is divided among 12 subcommittees, which hold hearings. Each is responsible for funding for different government functions such as defense spending or energy and water.
5. The House and Senate create their own budget resolutions, which must be negotiated and merged. Both houses must pass a single version of each funding bill.
6. Congress sends the approved funding bills to the president to sign or veto." Source: The federal budget process | USAGov

The government has no CFO. Both the House and Senate must pass a budget. Biden was a Senator from 1973-2009 (Elected in 1972) VP from 2009 to 2017. As a VP does he have any influence on the budget or should we give Biden a pass for doing very little? Fortunately there are transcripts where Biden as VP advocated for Obama's budgets.

"Seven years later, Biden has become one of the defining figures of this administration. Biden directed the implementation of the 2009 economic stimulus. He at times led the administration's negotiations with congressional leaders on budget deals. " Source: Surprising Obama-Biden Partnership Goes on Display at Convention

You might be right my math likely understates the extent of Biden's budget busting of America. Subjective choices have to be made as to how accountability for deficits are assigned. As VP and President Biden should be assigned a greater role in busting the budget. I oversimplified and gave Biden a pass but even if just a Senator for all the years he served, I still think he is the greatest spending politician, contributing to more debt over a lifetime than any politician in history.

I do need to subtract out the 4 years Biden was not in office. Those 4 years equal 7.4 trillion
Source: FACT FOCUS: Who’s to blame for the national debt? It’s more complicated than one culprit

So now we have the budget that started in 1973 where debt was 458 billion, lets round that to 500 billion. Source: US National Debt by Year

Taking the current published deficit 33.995 trillion and subtracting out the years Biden was not in office I get 26.595 trillion. Again, just assigning a mere Senator share understates Biden's impact, but as Senator or better 26.595 in public debt occurred during the Biden years. Divided by 100 the figure is 265.95 billion dollars. If one were to assign the President one third of the responsibility. Biden numbers would be much higher. The combined VP, Presidential numbers and the role of Senator makes Biden the deficit King. I have no axe to grind other than accountability to every politician that impacts deficits absent a war. Sadly, I would predict no differences between Biden and Trump on this for the next 4 years.

The individual impact of a President or any Federal office holder on the budget is not a constant. Some have more influence that others, some actually do try to be more light on the budget (Paul Rand for instance). Some also try to raise taxes more and Biden has been active there. But it still seems fair to hold him accountable and I challenge anyone to come up with a politician that has had more impact on the sheer amount of deficits than President Biden. Perhaps as a % fo GDP or in real dollars, there might be others.

Yes, it is true that Cheney said deficits do not matter. He was wrong of course.

Biden's deficits: Source Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit

2022 1.38 trillion
2023 1.70 trillion
2023 2 trillion expected.
2024 Unkown

So it could be a close race between Trump's 7.4 and whatever biden ends up with for 4 years in office. Given inflation, Trump's deficits will probably rembe worse but again Trump was not a VP or Senator ever so the deficit king award seems to go to Biden..

 

[Pommer]

Here is the budget process:

1. "Federal agencies create budget requests and submit them to the White House Office of Management and Budget (OMB).
2. OMB refers to the agencies’ requests as it develops the budget proposal for the president.
3. The president submits the budget proposal to Congress early the next year.
4. Proposed funding is divided among 12 subcommittees, which hold hearings. Each is responsible for funding for different government functions such as defense spending or energy and water.
5. The House and Senate create their own budget resolutions, which must be negotiated and merged. Both houses must pass a single version of each funding bill.
6. Congress sends the approved funding bills to the president to sign or veto." Source: The federal budget process | USAGov

The government has no CFO. Both the House and Senate must pass a budget. Biden was a Senator from 1973-2009 (Elected in 1972) VP from 2009 to 2017. As a VP does he have any influence on the budget or should we give Biden a pass for doing very little? Fortunately there are transcripts where Biden as VP advocated for Obama's budgets.

"Seven years later, Biden has become one of the defining figures of this administration. Biden directed the implementation of the 2009 economic stimulus. He at times led the administration's negotiations with congressional leaders on budget deals. " Source: Surprising Obama-Biden Partnership Goes on Display at Convention

You might be right my math likely understates the extent of Biden's budget busting of America. Subjective choices have to be made as to how accountability for deficits are assigned. As VP and President Biden should be assigned a greater role in busting the budget. I oversimplified and gave Biden a pass but even if just a Senator for all the years he served, I still think he is the greatest spending politician, contributing to more debt over a lifetime than any politician in history.

I do need to subtract out the 4 years Biden was not in office. Those 4 years equal 7.4 trillion
Source: FACT FOCUS: Who’s to blame for the national debt? It’s more complicated than one culprit

So now we have the budget that started in 1973 where debt was 458 billion, lets round that to 500 billion. Source: US National Debt by Year

Taking the current published deficit 33.995 trillion and subtracting out the years Biden was not in office I get 26.595 trillion. Again, just assigning a mere Senator share understates Biden's impact, but as Senator or better 26.595 in public debt occurred during the Biden years. Divided by 100 the figure is 265.95 billion dollars. If one were to assign the President one third of the responsibility. Biden numbers would be much higher. The combined VP, Presidential numbers and the role of Senator makes Biden the deficit King. I have no axe to grind other than accountability to every politician that impacts deficits absent a war. Sadly, I would predict no differences between Biden and Trump on this for the next 4 years.

The individual impact of a President or any Federal office holder on the budget is not a constant. Some have more influence that others, some actually do try to be more light on the budget (Paul Rand for instance). Some also try to raise taxes more and Biden has been active there. But it still seems fair to hold him accountable and I challenge anyone to come up with a politician that has had more impact on the sheer amount of deficits than President Biden. Perhaps as a % fo GDP or in real dollars, there might be others.

Yes, it is true that Cheney said deficits do not matter. He was wrong of course.

Biden's deficits: Source Fiscal Data Explains the National Deficit

2021 2.77 trillion
2022 1.38 trillion
2023 1.70 trillion
2023 2 trillion expected.

So it is a close race between Trump's 7.4 and Biden's 7.85. Given inflation, Trump's deficits will be worse but again Trump was not a VP or Senator ever so the deficit king award seems to go to Biden..

Fiscal year 2021 is on Trump’s time.

 

[Richard T]

Fiscal year 2021 is on Trump’s time.

Thanks you are right. I will edit.

 

[The Barbarian]

Ronald Reagan proved that deficits don't matter.
- Dick Cheney 2002

But only if the president is a republican. WFTH-I