Ecclesiastical Strategic Studies 101: If a German schism comes to pass, what would it look like?

[Michie]

ROME – At venues such as the National War College in Washington, future leaders in politics, intelligence and the military are challenged to ponder the strategic implications of various hypothetical, but still real-world, scenarios: What if Russia uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine? What if China invades Taiwan? What if Israel bombs nuclear facilities in Iran?

Though no one can predict the future, the idea is to look at plausible future developments and to consider what the best strategic response would be, before the crisis is actually upon us.

The Catholic Church has no real equivalent of a War College, but it probably should, as it too faces a complex and shifting set of global challenges. As an illustration of the kind of exercise such a program in Ecclesiastical Strategic Studies might offer, let’s take a scenario that doesn’t seem that far-fetched right now: A formal schism in Germany, driven by its controversial “synodal path.”

What would it mean, should at least some portion of the German church actually break ties with Rome, adopting a new leadership model based upon the idea of a “synodal council” in which bishops and laity jointly make decisions?

Continued below.

Ecclesiastical Strategic Studies 101: Gaming out a German schism

What would it mean should at least some portion of the German church actually break ties with Rome, adopting a new leadership model based upon the idea of a “synodal council” in which bishops and laity jointly make decisions?

cruxnow.com

 

[Bob Crowley]

I'd be more interested in a strategic analysis if Europe went Moslem.

As for a German schism, there was a much bigger and more violent one a bit over 500 years ago - the Reformation. Somehow the Catholic Church survived in Germany, despite the incredible violence (William Shirer author of "The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich" stated that the population decreased from 16 million to 6 million in the century after Luther).

In terms of the German Church today, there appears to be two sides - left (allegedly "synodal") and conservative. A schism would be within the Church, so presumably one or the other would break away from Rome.

If that happens, the one that breaks away will eventually die away as there isn't the sort of general emotional and political turmoil that accompanied the Reformation. If another schism occurred, the world and the rest of Germany would probably shrug it's shoulders and say "So what?"

I don't think there's much to fear about Protestants gaining members from such a split. They seem to be doing even worse.

6 facts about church influence in Germany – DW – 04/01/2021

How Christian is Germany? Judging by a sharp decline in church attendance, not very. But a look at tax revenue, board memberships and land holdings suggest that its two biggest churches still have a wealth of influence.

www.dw.com

According to the German Bishops' Conference, only 10 percent of registered Catholics attend church on Sundays. Among Protestants, it's barely 3 percent. Not only that, but churches are seeing fewer baptisms, brides, and — where Protestants are concerned — burials: Between 2010 and 2019, church weddings declined by nearly 20 percent among Catholics and 19 percent among Protestants.

From the Vatican's point of view, the biggest short term threat would be financial - the German Church provides a disproportionate share of finance and employs a lot of people.

Meanwhile the Moslems are taking the call seriously.

Prominent mosque in Germany sounds 1st public call to prayer

The Islamic call to prayer has been sounded in public for the first time from one of Germany’s biggest mosques in Cologne, but at limited volume

abcnews.go.com