Developing Herd immunity

[ZNP]

Preliminary research suggests it may be possible for some people to get the virus twice. (low antibodies from some recovered patients) or alternative theories exist where the virus may re-emerge, as the patient never really cleared it in their first encounter. Other possibilities included testing issues. In light of these findings, it would be wrong at this point to assume herd immunity Can You Get Sick With Coronavirus Twice? The Jury Is Still Out Recovered coronavirus patients are testing positive again. Can you get reinfected? - CNN

But if that is true then it is also wrong to assume a vaccine solves the problem.

 

[ZNP]

ABC News

'I don’t know that I'd have made it' without coronavirus plasma treatment, patient says

'I don’t know that I'd have made it' without coronavirus plasma treatment, patient says

This is a case where they used the plasma from someone who had recovered from the disease to help someone who was in the ICU. This is my point. If you gave the live virus to those most likely to survive, and you did it in a way that was most likely the least virulent possible, then even if 5% still got very sick (unlikely) you would have 95% that didn't to provide the plasma. Again, this is why I said you start with those who fully understand the risks, and that if they recover they will be expected to donate plasma. These people are not elderly, infirm, they don't have compromised immune systems, and they are monitored 24 hours a day for a fever after the inoculation (you can use wearable devices). If you start with 100 people you would probably get 80 that don't show symptoms, 10-15 with mild symptoms and 5 with much more serious symptoms if your inoculation was just as virulent as the real thing. This information would be huge at understanding the virus early on (say December) and you would be able to treat those who are more seriously ill the hospital is not overwhelmed and you have plasma from 80 people.

The beauty of this approach is that it can be completely targeted to hot spots with a goal of keeping the virus contained, and by starting with health care workers and front line workers you develop herd immunity in those who in contact with others. Even if the city is in lockdown some people are going to have to put themselves at risk.

Also, 5% would have been worst case scenario, we now know it may be much closer to 0.3% which means you might not even have had one person seriously sick from the initial 100.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

Whether a person can get it twice so soon appears to be in doubt. It is still too soon to tell. For more on people that appear to have gotten it a second time you can read more here:

Can You Develop COVID-19 Twice? Here's What We Know

I've been following a forum where people are reporting their experiences of COVID-19, and there is quite a high proportion saying their symptoms come and go over days or weeks, and return after they think they have recovered, suggesting that the virus is not always being fully cleared and the 'recovery' is often a temporary remission.

I have had similar (though milder) symptoms since an episode of viral meningitis some years ago - if I overstress my system or get a severe cold or sinus infection, I can have subsequent weeks of mild headache, sore neck & shoulders, sore throat & chest, and tiredness symptoms that vary in intensity over periods of weeks, days, and even hour by hour, before eventually fading away.

Some viruses can, like herpes, take up residence in various tissues and remain dormant or relatively dormant until system stress allows them to re-emerge and show their effects. I sincerely hope the COVID-19 virus is not one.

 

[RDKirk]

Tell that to the WHO which has declared certain diseases essentially extinct. I for one hope Polio does not come back and that the Measles continue to be held at bay.


One form. But we have eradicated certain diseases as well thru immunization, that also is herd immunity and what we are talking about here, not mythical beasts.

That's not what you said or even implied in your OP. You said:

I think we should examine this concept of Herd immunity. The main issue I have with vaccinations is that they take 12 to 18 months to get one. There should be (and is) a better alternative, not a replacement for an inoculation, but a way to greatly increase herd immunity immediately. Herd immunity is another way to reduce the spread of an epidemic. I am not suggesting that social distancing is not effective (it is) nor am I suggesting that we need 100% people immune, we only need 90%.

You excluded vaccinations in your concept of reaching 90% herd immunity.

 

[ZNP]

That's not what you said or even implied in your OP. You said:



You excluded vaccinations in your concept of reaching 90% herd immunity.

I don't care how you get to herd immunity, and I made it clear I don't think the Best (indicating immunization) should be the enemy of the better.

I am 100% for a vaccine, but if it takes 12-18 months then I am also 100% for having a better plan for those 18 months.

If I excluded vaccinations it was only referring to this period of 12-18 months while they are being developed.

 

[Bobber]

Third, there are ways to weaken this virus. For example, at 104 degrees F it does not have the ability to invade a cell and replicate.

When I read what you said I thought then why not try some tests putting some in saunas. You have high humidity and heat for a short period of time. I know science says high humidity brings down flu rates, or at least it's thought to. Then when clicking on about high humidity and viruses I came across this....

The scientists aren’t sure why humidity affects the flu virus survival. But they hope their discovery can be put to work. Emergency rooms and nursing homes, for example, could up their humidity during the winter. Maybe it’s time for a new health mantra: a sauna a day keeps the flu bug away.

Humidity Helps Fight Flu

The above was written in 2009. They might have meant it as a joke but could there actually be truth to it?

 

[ZNP]

When I read what you said I thought then why not try some tests putting some in saunas. You have high humidity and heat for a short period of time. I know science says high humidity brings down flu rates, or at least it's thought to. Then when clicking on about high humidity and viruses I came across this....

The scientists aren’t sure why humidity affects the flu virus survival. But they hope their discovery can be put to work. Emergency rooms and nursing homes, for example, could up their humidity during the winter. Maybe it’s time for a new health mantra: a sauna a day keeps the flu bug away.

Humidity Helps Fight Flu

The above was written in 2009. They might have meant it as a joke but could there actually be truth to it?

There has been some evidence that sitting in a sauna activates your immune system, that perhaps having an elevated temperature somehow tells the immune system to ramp up.

I work at a HS in NYC, we have 2,400 people come into our building from all the burroughs as well as Westchester, NJ, and Long Island. These students use the subway and buses. So I knew I would be exposed. As a result I hit the gym as usual (though washing hands more often and more consciously) and I sat in a sauna each day. I did get it, but it was a mild case.

However, I have my own sauna at home. Which is why I am hesitant to say something like that since most people do not have access to a sauna, at least not in NYC.

 

[Subduction Zone]

When I read what you said I thought then why not try some tests putting some in saunas. You have high humidity and heat for a short period of time. I know science says high humidity brings down flu rates, or at least it's thought to. Then when clicking on about high humidity and viruses I came across this....

The scientists aren’t sure why humidity affects the flu virus survival. But they hope their discovery can be put to work. Emergency rooms and nursing homes, for example, could up their humidity during the winter. Maybe it’s time for a new health mantra: a sauna a day keeps the flu bug away.

Humidity Helps Fight Flu

The above was written in 2009. They might have meant it as a joke but could there actually be truth to it?

I don't think that you understood your link. High humidity will do nothing to a virus in the body. What it can do is to kill the virus in the open air. The high heat of a sauna, at least 180 F and preferrably 200 or more, would probably also kill airborne virus. But in the body, nada.

 

[ZNP]

. Maybe it’s time for a new health mantra: a sauna a day keeps the flu bug away.

There are health benefits to a sauna. But there is no evidence at all that this statement is true. For example, it may be that elevating your temperature in a sauna will signal to the body to activate the immune system. That could be helpful if you have already been exposed to a virus and are still in the incubation period. Second, sweating out the pores followed by a shower in an environment that will kill virus might help if an active virus is on your body and has not yet infected you. Third, if you are in the incubation period there is evidence that raising your bodies temperature will stop the virus from replicating. Now since you are only in a sauna for 30 minutes this is not likely to have a big effect, but still it would be helpful, the virus doesn't replicate while your immune system ramps up.

 

[Subduction Zone]

There are health benefits to a sauna. But there is no evidence at all that this statement is true. For example, it may be that elevating your temperature in a sauna will signal to the body to activate the immune system. That could be helpful if you have already been exposed to a virus and are still in the incubation period. Second, sweating out the pores followed by a shower in an environment that will kill virus might help if an active virus is on your body and has not yet infected you. Third, if you are in the incubation period there is evidence that raising your bodies temperature will stop the virus from replicating. Now since you are only in a sauna for 30 minutes this is not likely to have a big effect, but still it would be helpful, the virus doesn't replicate while your immune system ramps up.

I love a good sauna. My grandparents on my mother's side did not even have any sort of indoor bathroom until very late in their lives, but they did have a separate buillding just for the sauna. I do not know of any evidence that they will help activate the immune system. And getting viruses out of the body once they are within you is all but impossible. Ethy alcohol kills the virus too, but one would be dead long before one consumed enough to kill the virus inside you if it was inside.

 

[ZNP]

I love a good sauna. My grandparents on my mother's side did not even have any sort of indoor bathroom until very late in their lives, but they did have a separate buillding just for the sauna. I do not know of any evidence that they will help activate the immune system. And getting viruses out of the body once they are within you is all but impossible. Ethy alcohol kills the virus too, but one would be dead long before one consumed enough to kill the virus inside you if it was inside.

Immune system

 

[Subduction Zone]

Immune system

That site is a sauna vendor. They offerend no support themselves. Would you trust a cigarette manufacturer when they told you that cigarettes do not cause lung cancer?

Saunas were a daily part of my life for years and I do miss them. But I am fairly sure that they do not do what you claim. Still it would be nice.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

30 mins in a sauna at 80⁰C will raise body temp by about 0.9⁰C, but it will take time to get there, so it's not really going to emulate a fever.

 

[Subduction Zone]

The following is a much better article with an ivestigation of how and why. There are some clear benefits and it may do what you said:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3916915/

Still one must be careful, further studies would be helpful. But jumping to the conclusions should make you happy:

"
The following conclusions can be drawn based on the results obtained in the present study:

1. Sauna bathing with a body cool-down causes a significant increase in an overall WBC count only in the group of trained men.
   
   
2. Sauna bathing considerably elevates neutrophil count, basophil count and lymphocyte count in the blood of trained men.
   
   
3. Sauna bathing causes a significantly higher increase in WBC and monocytes in athletes compared to untrained subjects.
   
   
4. Changes in the white blood cell profile suggest a faster mobilization of cells in the first line of immune defence in athletes compared to untrained subjects after a sauna bathing session.
   

Sauna bathing could be recommended for athletes as a means of enhancing immunological defence."

 

[Subduction Zone]

30 mins in a sauna at 80⁰C will raise body temp by about 0.9⁰C, but it will take time to get there, so it's not really going to emulate a fever.

80 C? Are you kidding. That is far too cold. I would be shivering in that sauna. When I took them daily at the Universiy of Minnesota we would often wrap the thermostat in cold paper towels to get the heat up. 200 F was our preferred temperature, that is 93 C. 80C is lukewarm in the sauna world.

 

[ZNP]

That site is a sauna vendor. They offerend no support themselves. Would you trust a cigarette manufacturer when they told you that cigarettes do not cause lung cancer?

Saunas were a daily part of my life for years and I do miss them. But I am fairly sure that they do not do what you claim. Still it would be nice.

Did you read what I said? "It may be" that is not a very high level of trust. Yes, the sauna vendors refer to studies which have been done. Have others been done which disprove this? I don't know. What I do know is that a sauna makes me feel better, especially when I feel like I am coming down with something. I was not the one who raised this issue, and I have not used it in any way as a way to develop herd immunity, nor have I claimed that there is solid scientific evidence to support it. There is some evidence that people who regularly use a sauna get sick less and less severely, but it is almost always the sauna companies that push this. So my post was simply my experience to someone else. Since when does every single post and every single opinion have to be verified by some kind of scientific elite? This is just another form of censorship.

 

[Subduction Zone]

Did you read what I said? "It may be" that is not a very high level of trust. Yes, the sauna vendors refer to studies which have been done. Have others been done which disprove this? I don't know. What I do know is that a sauna makes me feel better, especially when I feel like I am coming down with something. I was not the one who raised this issue, and I have not used it in any way as a way to develop herd immunity, nor have I claimed that there is solid scientific evidence to support it. There is some evidence that people who regularly use a sauna get sick less and less severely, but it is almost always the sauna companies that push this. So my post was simply my experience to someone else. Since when does every single post and every single opinion have to be verified by some kind of scientific elite? This is just another form of censorship.

The problem that you chose a very poor source. That harms your argument. It did not take long to find a much more reliable source that went into detail. I do not come into these arguments with a preset belief. My criticism was of your methodology. Not the results. I actually like the results as shown in the much more thorough study that I linked.

 

[ZNP]

The problem that you chose a very poor source. That harms your argument. It did not take long to find a much more reliable source that went into detail. I do not come into these arguments with a preset belief. My criticism was of your methodology. Not the results. I actually like the results as shown in the much more thorough study that I linked.

It wasn't my argument it was yours. You misread what I said as some kind of scientific evidence rather than the possibility of there being evidence which is how I phrased it. I did do a search of the available studies months ago and found them to be problematic. It seems that most of the studies are funded with grants from companies that sell saunas.

The other issue is that there are health risks as well as health effects. If someone thinks it is something they would be interested in I'd encourage them to look into it as I did with the person who expressed interest above, but for various reasons I have shied away from actually recommending saunas.

 

[Subduction Zone]

It wasn't my argument it was yours. You misread what I said as some kind of scientific evidence rather than the possibility of there being evidence which is how I phrased it. I did do a search of the available studies months ago and found them to be problematic. It seems that most of the studies are funded with grants from companies that sell saunas.

No, I was responding to those advocating saunas without looking into them. You presented a very questionable source. That was bad methodology. And I did not jump to conclusions. I always ask for evidence. I also try not to approach topics with bias. My point was that even if a person is correct siting a bad source makes one look as if they are wrong.

 

[ZNP]

No, I was responding to those advocating saunas without looking into them. You presented a very questionable source. That was bad methodology. And I did not jump to conclusions. I always ask for evidence. I also try not to approach topics with bias. My point was that even if a person is correct siting a bad source makes one look as if they are wrong.

Can't you get it through your head, this is not a scientific journal. "Bad methodology" is questioning every point someone says, questioning their right to have an opinion based on personal experience, and requiring a scientific study in a respected journal to support every statement they make. That is bad methodology.