Developing Herd immunity

[Richard T]

But if that is true then it is also wrong to assume a vaccine solves the problem.

Yes, a vaccine may not be a magic bullet. They now have identified 30 strains of COVID-19. It is mutating and this will make it tougher. https://nypost.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-study/

 

[RDKirk]

I don't care how you get to herd immunity, and I made it clear I don't think the Best (indicating immunization) should be the enemy of the better.

I am 100% for a vaccine, but if it takes 12-18 months then I am also 100% for having a better plan for those 18 months.

If I excluded vaccinations it was only referring to this period of 12-18 months while they are being developed.

Vaccines already essentially exist. It's the testing process that is so lengthy, and there is no difference between vaccines and plasma in that regard.

 

[RDKirk]

I don't think that you understood your link. High humidity will do nothing to a virus in the body. What it can do is to kill the virus in the open air. The high heat of a sauna, at least 180 F and preferrably 200 or more, would probably also kill airborne virus. But in the body, nada.

Because the body will regulate its internal temperature to no more than a very low-grade fever.

 

[RDKirk]

The following is a much better article with an ivestigation of how and why. There are some clear benefits and it may do what you said:

Effect of a Single Finnish Sauna Session on White Blood Cell Profile and Cortisol Levels in Athletes and Non-Athletes

Still one must be careful, further studies would be helpful. But jumping to the conclusions should make you happy:

"
The following conclusions can be drawn based on the results obtained in the present study:

1. Sauna bathing with a body cool-down causes a significant increase in an overall WBC count only in the group of trained men.
   
   
2. Sauna bathing considerably elevates neutrophil count, basophil count and lymphocyte count in the blood of trained men.
   
   
3. Sauna bathing causes a significantly higher increase in WBC and monocytes in athletes compared to untrained subjects.
   
   
4. Changes in the white blood cell profile suggest a faster mobilization of cells in the first line of immune defence in athletes compared to untrained subjects after a sauna bathing session.

Sauna bathing could be recommended for athletes as a means of enhancing immunological defence."

White blood cell hyper activity is part of the problem with covid-19.

 

[Bobber]

It wasn't my argument it was yours. You misread what I said as some kind of scientific evidence rather than the possibility of there being evidence which is how I phrased it. I did do a search of the available studies months ago and found them to be problematic. It seems that most of the studies are funded with grants from companies that sell saunas.

The other issue is that there are health risks as well as health effects. If someone thinks it is something they would be interested in I'd encourage them to look into it as I did with the person who expressed interest above, but for various reasons I have shied away from actually recommending saunas.

And I was just wondering. If high humidity and heat could possibly effect even one's surroundings where it's in the air.....could even having humidifiers recommended in home and work places at least hinder the virus? More dampness in the air the better?

 

[ZNP]

Vaccines already essentially exist. It's the testing process that is so lengthy, and there is no difference between vaccines and plasma in that regard.

Not just the testing procedure, they then need to make hundreds of millions of doses.

 

[ZNP]

And I was just wondering. If high humidity and heat could possibly effect even one's surroundings where it's in the air.....could even having humidifiers recommended in home and work places at least hinder the virus? More dampness in the air the better?

I think the goal is to improve your overall health and immune response. I don't think living in an environment of high humidity and high heat which would promote mold would do that.

 

[ZNP]

White blood cell hyper activity is part of the problem with covid-19.

I agree, far too many questions to say anything for sure. Maybe sauna will help, but if it makes you feel better, cleaner, healthier, then go ahead.

 

[ZNP]

Because the body will regulate its internal temperature to no more than a very low-grade fever.

I agree, the studies that have been done are far too narrow, if the scientists really thought this would be a way to boost the immune system you would think they would have done some bigger studies. You aren't supposed to stay in the sauna for more than an hour. So how much of a boost is one hour of a low grade fever? Also, this is not a practical solution for 90% of the population which is what you need for herd immunity.

 

[ZNP]

Vaccines already essentially exist. It's the testing process that is so lengthy, and there is no difference between vaccines and plasma in that regard.

The difference is they can use plasma on people who are in the ICU, vaccine wouldn't help there, and we are already using plasma. We could anticipate that we would always have enough plasma since they estimate that less than 5% would get sick enough to need it.

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

80 C? Are you kidding. That is far too cold. I would be shivering in that sauna. When I took them daily at the Universiy of Minnesota we would often wrap the thermostat in cold paper towels to get the heat up. 200 F was our preferred temperature, that is 93 C. 80C is lukewarm in the sauna world.

Nevertheless, over the 20 to 30 mins spent in the sauna, the body is doing everything it can to minimise the core temperature rise, so if your core does reach fever temperature it is likely to be for only a short time. The core temperature difference between fever and heatstroke is relatively small (40C makes doctors panicky).

I speak as someone who was once a guinea pig for the development of a heatstroke treatment bed for the Mecca pilgrimage - pedalling a stationary bike in a sealed plastic suit in a heated room until my body temp was at the limit, then seeing how quickly it could be safely brought back down. It was voluntary in the sense that it was made clear that mine was the sort of job that involved such things...

 

[ZNP]

Nevertheless, over the 20 to 30 mins spent in the sauna, the body is doing everything it can to minimise the core temperature rise, so if your core does reach fever temperature it is likely to be for only a short time. The core temperature difference between fever and heatstroke is relatively small (40C makes doctors panicky).

I speak as someone who was once a guinea pig for the development of a heatstroke treatment bed for the Mecca pilgrimage - pedalling a stationary bike in a sealed plastic suit in a heated room until my body temp was at the limit, then seeing how quickly it could be safely brought back down. It was voluntary in the sense that it was made clear that mine was the sort of job that involved such things...

So tell us, did you get corona virus while doing this or did it protect you!

 

[FrumiousBandersnatch]

So tell us, did you get corona virus while doing this or did it protect you!

No virus, but the feet of the suit collected a couple of pints of sweat - yuk. The solution we came up with was blissful to cool down on - lying on a net with fans blowing air over me and fine mist sprays providing the evaporative cooling (if you've ever been to a humidity-controlled hot-house, it was the same kind of spray nozzle). [/off-topic]

 

[ZNP]

1 in 5 NYC residents tested for antibodies is positive

This is not herd immunity yet, however we now have a treatment by using plasma from those that are recovered. If we create a registry of all those with immunity it opens up a potential strategy for incremental reopening of the economy.

This would depend on being able to test everyone. Anyone with a compromised immune system would need to be tested to determine if they should stay in a shelter in place or not. If they already have the antibodies then they don't. Likewise it would be very helpful to test all those who are front line workers. If you have a registry of 10,000 people with immunity you are in a position to treat 1-2,000 people who go to the hospital. So then, as you test people it gives the government the leeway to slowly open the economy back up.

Also, if a person is determined to have a compromised immune system and does not have the antibodies, we could give them priority for delivery from Amazon.com, Costco, etc. Also, if they were to test all the FedEx delivery men, we could even assign those with antibodies who are not contagious to deliver to these customers. This would require AI and Big Data but is one way we could use our technology to reopen the economy in a safe way.

 

[RDKirk]

1 in 5 NYC residents tested for antibodies is positive

This is not herd immunity yet, however we now have a treatment by using plasma from those that are recovered. If we create a registry of all those with immunity it opens up a potential strategy for incremental reopening of the economy.

For those who are already sick with the disease, not those who have not yet contracted it.

This would depend on being able to test everyone. Anyone with a compromised immune system would need to be tested to determine if they should stay in a shelter in place or not.

So would anyone who hasn't had the disease who comes into regular contact with anyone who has a compromised immune system.

BTW, it's not specifically "those with a compromised immune system." People who have elevated susceptibility to severe illness from covid-19 may still have very capable immune systems...in fact, that's part of the problem. It's the powerful reaction of the immune system in people who are more susceptible to covid-19 infection that creates the danger.

 

[ZNP]

For those who are already sick with the disease, not those who have not yet contracted it.



So would anyone who hasn't had the disease who comes into regular contact with anyone who has a compromised immune system.

BTW, it's not specifically "those with a compromised immune system." People who have elevated susceptibility to severe illness from covid-19 may still have very capable immune systems...in fact, that's part of the problem. It's the powerful reaction of the immune system in people who are more susceptible to covid-19 infection that creates the danger.

What we need to reopen the economy is one of 3 things. 1. A vaccine. 2. Herd immunity or 3. a treatment.

We are using plasma from those with immunity as a treatment. Therefore we have #3 if we have enough people who are immune to treat the potential number of sick. Since 20% of those in NYC have already been exposed if we were to completely reopen the hospitals could get slammed worse than before, so that is not a good option. However, if we test all the front line workers and identify those with immunity we could begin incremental reopening.

Yes, a young, healthy person who does not appear to be high risk could get seriously sick. So initially even though you reopen you are still using masks and the six foot rule. You are also monitoring the hospitalization, so if that number goes up you can scale back. But even if that person who you would not expect gets sick we now have a treatment -- plasma.

There are many people who can continue a shelter in place with little difficulty -- those who are retired, those who are working from home, and those who are on a fixed income and don't need to return to work. If that represents 40% of the population then we could easily get the economy back to 60% right now (NYC).

If we can ramp up the testing everyone who has antibodies can return to normal, and as long as hospitalizations don't spike too high the government can continue loosening restrictions. I do not see them allowing large gatherings like sporting events or concerts, nor do I see them opening school before September, so I doubt NYC gets back to 80% of the economy before September. But the door is now open for an incremental opening of the economy.

 

[ZNP]

If the shelter in place is restricted to people 65 and older and those with underlying health conditions that increase their risk you deal with 80% of the problem.

Seventy-eight percent of all people put into intensive care for Covid-19 in the US have had an underlying condition like diabetes or heart disease: 32 percent had diabetes, 29 percent had heart disease, 21 percent had chronic lung disease, and 9 percent had compromised immune systems.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/8/21207269/covid-19-coronavirus-risk-factors

In the US, the CDC reports, “overall, 31% of cases, 45% of hospitalizations, 53% of ICU admissions, and 80% of deaths associated with COVID-19” are among adults older than 65. “With the highest percentage of severe outcomes among persons aged ≥85 years.” (To note: This CDC data is compiled from February 12 to March 16, when there were just 4,226 confirmed cases in the United States.)

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/8/21207269/covid-19-coronavirus-risk-factors

 

[ZNP]

Reducing the viral lode could also have a very big impact on the morbidity, so continuing with social distancing and face masks until the threat passes.

Scientists also wonder if the circumstances of how a person was first infected play a role in how sick they get. Data from China reveals that health care workers are getting sicker from Covid-19 than you might expect based on their age.

It’s possible these workers are being exposed to high concentrations of the virus, which may lead a person to more severe illness. “The more virus you are exposed to, the more likely you are going to replicate higher levels of virus [in the body], and that’s not going to help you cope with such an infection,” Iwasaki explains. “And, of course, if you’re a health care worker, inhaling someone coughing in your face —that’s a very high level of exposure.”

This is one scientists still need to figure out. “We don’t really know at this time if dose, or dosing route has an effect” on severity, Angela Rasmussen, a Columbia University virologist, says. “I would imagine that it probably does.”

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2020/4/8/21207269/covid-19-coronavirus-risk-factors

 

[ZNP]

Post #57 and #58 give the basis for a strategy to reopen the country.

#1. All those who are 65 and all those with preexisting conditions continue to shelter in place.

#2. Everyone else can return to work but must continue to practice social distancing and wear a mask. That of course may not be possible in some businesses (school for example and large arenas). Those businesses do not reopen fully.

#3. So, for a business that does not operate in a way that social distancing would be kept has to open in a modified way. For example, in our HS about 20% of kids are not able to work remotely from home due to a lack of wifi (school system has provided the computers). That represents 80 kids for a school that typically has 400 students. What the school could do is open up 4 computer labs for 10 kids each on a staggered schedule so that you schedule 80 kids each day. This would require 8 teachers a day (we have 32 teachers). So each teacher would have one 3 hour shift per week. Students are assigned a particular computer, so only 2 students use a computer each week. Protocols could be put in place where the first thing that is done when you come into the room is to clean your work station and the last thing you do when you leave is to clean your workstation.