"Democrats worried that economic recovery could lead to Trump reelection

[charsan]

I apologize for the late response. Life got in the way. You see, the problem with these models is that early into the pandemic, the projections were all over the place. With predictions ranging from 60, 000 to well over 2 million (Colombia University). These numbers are with the control measures in consideration. It was impossible to know who was right or wrong. What ended up happening was that the projections kept getting smaller every week. It was like a group of people blindly throwing darts at a board and not even hitting the wall. Then every week the take a few steps closer to the board and go to blindly throwing again. This continued until one of these "experts" managed to actually hit the board. Then people like you cling ahold of that lucky dart and wave it in Trump's face. Now you are using the same lucky dart thrower as your source. It is actually both humorous and sad at the same time.

Predicting the coronavirus: An examination of all the national models, what they predicted, and when

Which I can say for myself that this had led me not trust those "experts" at all

 

[The Barbarian]

The models depended on what, if anything, would done about the pandemic.

Which is why the projections changed each time Trump changed.

The consensus model, with some social distancing in place, was 162,000 deaths, back before Trump admitted that it wasn't a "hoax" after all. Right now, we have ... um ... a bit over 109,000 deaths, with the summer yet to go. So pretty good for a virus no one knew much about. Because the virus was largely unknown, there were big error bars, but the models turned out to be pretty good.

 

[Fantine]

Clinton should give some more "arithmetic" lessons like he did in 2012.
He is brilliant at explaining "Economics for Dummies."

 

[hedrick]

The number i remember was at least 1 million and maybe more if we did nothing. It’s harder to project what will happen with controls, since they vary so much and the effects of specific measures aren’t known. But the numbers we’re seeing seem within the range predicted. What happens now is anyone’s guess. Some states are opening without having the virus under control. I think many will get away with it, but there are states that are a concern.

the current us death rate is 1000 per day. If it stays that way to the end of the year we’ll be over 250,000. I think it will take another few weeks to see whether that’s likely.

 

[The Barbarian]

The deaths/day, were declining, but the decline is slowing, and the curve is becoming horizontal. Which suggests we aren't going to see much improvement for a while.

 

[hedrick]

If you remove the NYC area, most of the decline goes away.

 

[The Barbarian]

If you remove the NYC area, most of the decline goes away.

Yes, that is true. The real fear is that the rural pandemic will be slower-acting, but equally serious.

 

[Fantine]

Every time Trump hears the demographics about the majority of deceased are Hispanic, black, poor, elderly, or the imprisoned the more eager he gets to move to Phase 3. He hasn't spoken to Dr. Fauci in two weeks.