Democrats vs Corporate America

[KCfromNC]

the start in general for stocks increasing in value occurred ironically the end of January 2017 (right after Trump took office).

You have got to be kidding me. Do you really think I can't just look up VTSAX historical returns and see that this is an obvious falsehood?

 

[Sir Robbins]

You have got to be kidding me. Do you really think I can't just look up VTSAX historical returns and see that this is an obvious falsehood?

you're welcome to look them up. Look at employment increases, the number of people investing that never invested before. Those numbers went through the roof in 2017. More employment and more hope leads to a stronger market and more people willing to invest. I bought shares in multiple companies I hadn't invested in before and know many who did the same. The increase in value doesn't have to be in a dollar amount but in the added number of people investing

 

[iluvatar5150]

the start in general for stocks increasing in value occurred ironically the end of January 2017 (right after Trump took office).

That just isn't true. The only way 2017 looks that good is if you only compare it to 2015, which was slow. But if you look at the the progress since about Spring 2009, then 2017 is more or less a continuation of the trend that had been in place for several years. 2018 is negative, and every day I resist selling because there have been times in the past when I've tried to bail out of a sinking ship only to bail out at the bottom and miss some of the recovery. Yet, every day is a new low.

I believe the numbers you posted, but your buddies are betting on volatility, not the long-term health of the market. Your HD returns this year are doing about as well as my LMT returns are, which is to say:

 

[KCfromNC]

you're welcome to look them up. Look at employment increases, the number of people investing that never invested before. Those numbers went through the roof in 2017. More employment and more hope leads to a stronger market and more people willing to invest. I bought shares in multiple companies I hadn't invested in before and know many who did the same. The increase in value doesn't have to be in a dollar amount but in the added number of people investing

Does anyone else notice a pattern in these posts of jumping to several more assertions when previous ones turn out to not line up with reality?

 

[Steve Petersen]

Folks, I just watched this piece on CNBC:

Next year will be the Democrats vs. corporate America

Not sure what it all means to us investors (which would be all of us), but sure don't like the sound of this. Any and all inputs are welcome. Thanks and peace in Christ .

Maybe 'cause of stuff like this:

The Median Amazon Employee's Salary Is $28,000. Jeff Bezos Makes More Than That in 10 Seconds

 

[Sir Robbins]

Does anyone else notice a pattern in these posts of jumping to several more assertions when previous ones turn out to not line up with reality?

well, I'm trying to make my point and it seems to just confuse you so I'll stop. It may not be reality for most but it is for some. It's not long term, it's aggressive and honestly, in perfect timing and luck. There are people who make a living doing it but it fluctuates so much. Not sure what you're after. You won't get any physical records because those are not any of my business or yours. I'm going by what he tells me and since he paid $800k cash for a house last year and drives multiple cars, I'm not going to doubt him. Just because you've never heard of it or believe in it doesn't mean it doesn't exist (you should know this being an atheist)

 

[Sir Robbins]

That just isn't true. The only way 2017 looks that good is if you only compare it to 2015, which was slow. But if you look at the the progress since about Spring 2009, then 2017 is more or less a continuation of the trend that had been in place for several years. 2018 is negative, and every day I resist selling because there have been times in the past when I've tried to bail out of a sinking ship only to bail out at the bottom and miss some of the recovery. Yet, every day is a new low.

I believe the numbers you posted, but your buddies are betting on volatility, not the long-term health of the market. Your HD returns this year are doing about as well as my LMT returns are, which is to say:

what's good or not to me is based on how many people are actually invested in the company, not it's share value (though this is good too obviously). In 2017, more people invested than I have seen in years including from my own family who lost a lot in 2007-2009 as many did.

 

[iluvatar5150]

what's good or not to me is based on how many people are actually invested in the company, not it's share value (though this is good too obviously).

Market volume is an odd metric by which to measure performance (and also not the one you described earlier). Market volume in late 2008 / early 2009 was about as high as it is now.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

In 2017, more people invested than I have seen in years including from my own family who lost a lot in 2007-2009 as many did.

A lot of people got into Bitcoin last year, too.

 

[Sir Robbins]

Market volume is an odd metric by which to measure performance (and also not the one you described earlier). Market volume in late 2008 / early 2009 was about as high as it is now.

Dow Jones Industrial Average



A lot of people got into Bitcoin last year, too.

I know a lot who got out too after being in it from the start...

 

[KCfromNC]

well, I'm trying to make my point and it seems to just confuse you so I'll stop.

Yeah, you claim the stock market only stared going up in 2017 and I'm the confused one. Uh huh.

 

[Sir Robbins]

Yeah, you claim the stock market only stared going up in 2017 and I'm the confused one. Uh huh.

no, I said it stocks gained a lot in value in 2017 based on the rise in investors. Stocks always go up and down in price and on occasion may face a sell off if something dramatic happens with a company but generally speaking, faith in the markets went sky high in early 2017. The market would have lost a lot of faith and you'd have certainly seen a sellout if Hillary had won. We'd be in a nightmare situation right now

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Most decent jobs offer a 401k.

Also true homeowners in a way have an investment in the economy.

M-Bob

I remember when the decent jobs offered a real pension and great healthcare.

 

[whatbogsends]

well, I'm trying to make my point and it seems to just confuse you so I'll stop. It may not be reality for most but it is for some. It's not long term, it's aggressive and honestly, in perfect timing and luck. There are people who make a living doing it but it fluctuates so much. Not sure what you're after. You won't get any physical records because those are not any of my business or yours. I'm going by what he tells me and since he paid $800k cash for a house last year and drives multiple cars, I'm not going to doubt him. Just because you've never heard of it or believe in it doesn't mean it doesn't exist (you should know this being an atheist)

You might want to explain that to this guy:

aside from my production business, I do mutual funds for Primerica.

90% of people earn 10% of the money while the remaining 10% of the people earn the remaining 90% of the money. Investments, IRAs, 401Ks, stocks, etc are where most real wealth and money is built. There are people making $60k a year living off $40k and investing $20k a year. If you do this for just a few years, you can retire on your investments (given you leave the principal alone and live off the interest). Most aggressive accounts today have a 12% return rate. This is great but also kind of scary

Who made the absurd claim that "if you just invest $20K for a few years you can retire on your investments".

While 2017 was a very good market year under Trump, 2018 was the first negative year for the market in a long time. Peddling falsehoods about investing returns and then further trying to correlate the upward trend in the market to Trump is turd-covered excrement.​

 

[Mountainmanbob]

I remember when the decent jobs offered a real pension and great healthcare.

It would be nice if we could get back to that.
Feel blessed to have those two.
Although it was something that I went looking for while job searching.

City jobs, Fed jobs, County jobs, School jobs etc. -- I applied at them all.
Took about a year to land one -- full benefits with retirement free medical for life.

MB

 

[KCfromNC]

no, I said it stocks gained a lot in value in 2017 based on the rise in investors.

Not exactly :

the start in general for stocks increasing in value occurred ironically the end of January 2017 (right after Trump took office)

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Perhaps we will get back to the days when a company rewarded the workers for making them rich instead of passing the profits to the shareholders and new CEO’s who come along every three years or so.

 

[KCfromNC]

aside from my production business, I do mutual funds for Primerica.

90% of people earn 10% of the money while the remaining 10% of the people earn the remaining 90% of the money. Investments, IRAs, 401Ks, stocks, etc are where most real wealth and money is built. There are people making $60k a year living off $40k and investing $20k a year. If you do this for just a few years, you can retire on your investments (given you leave the principal alone and live off the interest). Most aggressive accounts today have a 12% return rate. This is great but also kind of scary

Oh, I missed this one initially.

In case anyone is confused by this, here's the reality. You can't live off "principal alone and live off the interest", because the market doesn't always go up every year. Since they can't just stop spending money for a year or two until the market recovers retirees are forced to spend down some of the principal in order to buy food.

Instead, using historical return data studies have shown that generally, people need 25x of their post retirement income needs saved up to fund their retirement needs. For the example above, that would be a nice round $1 million invested at the date of retirement. From this, people could safely withdraw 4% the first year and increase that every year to keep up with inflation. That gives the $40K income mentioned above per year indefinitely.

To generate $1 million from $20K a year investing takes a bit longer than "just a few years". Even assuming the totally unreasonable 12% a year listed above it would take 18 years. Add another year to make up for inflation.

For returns more in line with historical norms, it is more like 25+ years to put this much together.

In any case, that's more than a few years.

 

[Steve Petersen]

Oh, I missed this one initially.

In case anyone is confused by this, here's the reality. You can't live off "principal alone and live off the interest", because the market doesn't always go up every year. Since they can't just stop spending money for a year or two until the market recovers retirees are forced to spend down some of the principal in order to buy food.

Instead, using historical return data studies have shown that generally, people need 25x of their post retirement income needs saved up to fund their retirement needs. For the example above, that would be a nice round $1 million invested at the date of retirement. From this, people could safely withdraw 4% the first year and increase that every year to keep up with inflation. That gives the $40K income mentioned above per year indefinitely.

To generate $1 million from $20K a year investing takes a bit longer than "just a few years". Even assuming the totally unreasonable 12% a year listed above it would take 18 years. Add another year to make up for inflation.

For returns more in line with historical norms, it is more like 25+ years to put this much together.

In any case, that's more than a few years.

If you earned 40k per year over your career, Social Security benefits would be around 18K. That means you would need 22K from retirement funds.

 

[KCfromNC]

If you earned 40k per year over your career, Social Security benefits would be around 18K. That means you would need 22K from retirement funds.

Yeah, good point. Even so, you'd need a decade or two of savings to get to the $550K needed to supplement SS investing 20K a year plus returns. Nowhere close to "just a few years" as promised in the post I was responding to.

ETA - plus, you're not going to earn that if you invest for "just a few years" then retire and live off investment returns. It takes, what, a decade to earn enough SS credits?

 

[Steve Petersen]

Yeah, good point. Even so, you'd need a decade or two of savings to get to the $550K needed to supplement SS investing 20K a year plus returns. Nowhere close to "just a few years" as promised in the post I was responding to.

If you are married, your spouse would have SS also. If the spouse didn't work outside the home, the spouse would receive an amount equal to half your SS. So now we have a household income from SS of 27K.