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Creationists: can you explain post-Flood repopulation? (2)

Davian

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popcorn.gif



animals-flood-flooding-flood_water-noahs-noahs_ark-cgon195_low.jpg
 
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Loudmouth

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It would take about 1,100 years to reach today's population at the current 2% population increase rate of today from 6 people.

That wouldn't produce the observed genetic variation within the human population.

Also, you could probably get the worlds mouse population in less than a decade. Doesn't mean that the Earth is 10 years old.
 
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Justatruthseeker

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Except we have seen the entire genetic variation within cats and dogs in a mere few hundred years, which you seem to be overlooking for some reason?????? Evolutionists always seem to overlook dogs and cats for some strange reason. Probably because they show that man did in a few thousand years what nature takes hundreds of thousands to do - and are still exactly what they started out as?

Why are you ignoring actual real world statistics and facts?

Except you can't get the entire mouse population in 10 years, unless none of them ever died from disease and every one born lived to make a new generation. Are you suggesting this is the case in the real world? But in 8,000 years we could certainly get the entire world mouse population and diversity of mice breeds. And since more mice live with man than they do in the wild, you can't get the mouse population until you first get the human population - they are now in a sense dependent on man.

Human genetic diversity, you mean 6 races and the variations amongst them - and the mixtures between them? Less human diversity than there are dog and cat variations in a mere few hundred years. Less than there are deer or any other animal varieties. So human diversity is no problem at all - it's the easiest of all of them to meet.
 
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Loudmouth

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Except we have seen the entire genetic variation within cats and dogs in a mere few hundred years, which you seem to be overlooking for some reason??????

What am I overlooking? Show me the studies on feline or canine genetic variation and how it was arrived at from a single breeding pair a few hundred years ago.

It would seem that you are confusing phenotypic and genotypic variation.

Except you can't get the entire mouse population in 10 years,

Sure you can. With a 2 month generation time, that is 6 generations per year. 10 years is 60 generations. There are about 6 per litter, so even if we have 2 die off every generation, that is still a doubling of the population every generation. Starting from 2 mice at 20 grams each, that would be about 1E18 mice in just 10 years which is more than the current population. Therefore, the Earth has to be less than 10 years old, right?
 
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Justatruthseeker

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What am I overlooking? Show me the studies on feline or canine genetic variation and how it was arrived at from a single breeding pair a few hundred years ago.

It would seem that you are confusing phenotypic and genotypic variation.

No just overlooking the facts is all.

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-qMTSgnaw2Bc/UEHFsOGf-tI/AAAAAAAAACU/vVnWkxpZ9Qc/s1600/hg.jpg



Sure you can. With a 2 month generation time, that is 6 generations per year. 10 years is 60 generations. There are about 6 per litter, so even if we have 2 die off every generation, that is still a doubling of the population every generation. Starting from 2 mice at 20 grams each, that would be about 1E18 mice in just 10 years which is more than the current population. Therefore, the Earth has to be less than 10 years old, right?

So then - we should be overrun with mice and humans both - starting from even 100,000 years ago. So again - real world facts just don't match your claims. As is always the case.

Even at the low 2% increase in population amongst man - the population of man just from 100,000 years should be 1,000's of times higher than it is - according to your math. Guess your math just doesn't fit the facts very well does it. Mice should be piled up 10 feet deep worldwide according to your math. Guess your math just doesn't fit the facts very well does it. So I guess basically your math is pretty much useless when it comes to anything but theory. But then you have never actually needed real world evidence have you.
 
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Loudmouth

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Where is the genetic variation in that chart?

So then - we should be overrun with mice and humans both - starting from even 100,000 years ago.

According to the creationist argument, yes we should. Shows you how good that creationist argument is.

Even at the low 2% increase in population amongst man - the population of man just from 100,000 years should be 1,000's of times higher than it is - according to your math. Guess your math just doesn't fit the facts very well does it. Mice should be piled up 10 feet deep worldwide according to your math. Guess your math just doesn't fit the facts very well does it. So I guess basically your math is pretty much useless when it comes to anything but theory. But then you have never actually needed real world evidence have you.

I already showed why that argument doesn't stack up.
 
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Justatruthseeker

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Where is the genetic variation in that chart?



According to the creationist argument, yes we should. Shows you how good that creationist argument is.



I already showed why that argument doesn't stack up.

Except it's not my math, but yours that predicts in 10 years we would have the current mice population - I'm arguing thousands - you are arguing 10 years. And yet in 100,000 years we only have the current population we observe. So again - your math fails on all counts when it comes to real world data. Don't try to turn it around to get out of your error that doesn't match anything we observe.

Sure you can. With a 2 month generation time, that is 6 generations per year. 10 years is 60 generations. There are about 6 per litter, so even if we have 2 die off every generation, that is still a doubling of the population every generation. Starting from 2 mice at 20 grams each, that would be about 1E18 mice in just 10 years which is more than the current population.

So we can be rest assured your claims of how many mice would be produced in 10 years do not match reality. Not in the slightest. But now suddenly you want to attempt the strawman of making it seem that creationists are arguing for this, when you can't even get your math to match reality by orders of magnitude. lol, you are something else.
 
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Loudmouth

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Except it's not my math, but yours that predicts in 10 years we would have the current mice population - I'm arguing thousands - you are arguing 10 years.

I am using your argument.

Also, I am still waiting for the genetic variation in cats and dog, how it is comparable to human genetic variation, and how it was produced by a single breeding pair over just the last few hundred years.
 
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OldWiseGuy

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samiam

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Since we’re going through the story of Noah’s Ark in our Bible study, I have revisited the post-flood re-population problem.

Summary: I did come up with a model that doesn’t require completely suspending disbelief to have the world repopulate to a reasonable (namely, enough people to build the pyramids) post-flood.

For the sake of convenience, I will hand-wave the issue with eight people (or two of each “kind” of animal, whatever a kind is) having enough genetic diversity for the entire human population away. God can perform a miracle where He just randomly mutates genes the right way, post-flood, so we get all the genetic diversity of modern humans. Mind you, this genetic diversity just happens to look just like the genetic diversity from about 100 people in central Africa about 100,000 years ago, but this is an ah-hoc explanation, not a scientific theory.

The only problem I will concern myself with is the problem of getting enough people to build the pyramids in ancient times, while having today’s population.

So, let’s allow God to perform some miracles with humans right after Noah leaves the Ark:
  • The women on the ark, being born before Genesis 6:3, can have children regardless of how old they get.
  • Every person born before the flood lives to be 1,000 years old (a little high, but this is an approximate calculation)
  • Every person born after the flood lives to be 120 years old (as capped with Genesis 6:3)
  • God commanded the people coming off of the ark to be fruitful and multiply (Genesis 9:7) so they do in my model. Starting on every girl’s 12th birthday (it was a long time ago, and yes ancient Jewish law does allow a 12-year-old to get married), each girl becomes pregnant and successfully gives birth to a child 36 weeks later. There is a 5% chance of having twins and a small chance of having triplets. Upon giving birth, every single girl becomes pregnant again within a week. This process continues until the female is 50 years old, so each and every woman has over 50 children. Yes, this requires an extreme level of obedience to Genesis 9:7, a level of suppression of women’s rights which would be unthinkable today, but we’ll let it pass saying “it’s a miracle” and “things were different back then”
  • Every man, woman, and child post-ark lives to be 120 years old. There is no death and no failed pregnancies in this model.
  • 52% of births are women. This is higher than real world figures, but if God is performing other miracles to maximize human fertility post-ark, he can perform this one.
What are the results? Over 20,000,000 people (20 million) from the eight on the ark in only 100 years. In more detail:

Years after leaving ark: 100
Year: 2270 BCE
Population: 21,507,526
Living: 21,507,526
Females: 11,180,800
Adult men: 1,885,216
Adult women: 2,041,023
Adults total: 3,926,239
Pregnant women: 2,031,797
Avg. weeks pregnant: 15.598720246166
Children: 17,581,287

Adults here are 12 and older; children are under 12. As one can see, in order to accomplish this hyperfertile growth, each and every teenager and adult has to care for over four preteen children. Death has to be eliminated, every women has to be able to become pregnant within a week of giving birth until they are 50. Also, every pregnancy results in a child being born, and God, in yet another miracle, has decreased gestation time down to 36 weeks (from 38-42 weeks) to maximize population growth.

If God does all of these miracles post-ark, then, yes, one could have enough people to build the pyramids 100 years after Noah and his family gets off of the ark. Mind you, the first pyramid in Egypt (the Pyramid of Djoser, sometimes called the Step Pyramid) was built about 300 years before Noah left the ark, so we’ll either have to move the flood timeline back a few hundred years or move the Step Pyramid ahead a few hundred years, but assuming we can do that we could have people breed like rabbits for 100 years, then spend about 50 years building up enough civilization so we can have the Djoser Pyramid, and have something which kinda sorta works with the young Earth model for the Ark story.

It’s still a stretch and requires a number of extra-Biblical miracles from God.

I ran another hyper-fertile model which has women get married at the age of 14, where a woman has only an 8% chance of getting pregnant any given week, where there’s a small but significant chance of a miscarriage or of someone dying, and where women no longer get pregnant when they turn 40. This somewhat more reasonable, albeit still hyperfertile, model requires 200 years to get around 750,000 people. That’s probably enough people to have a society that can build the Step Pyramid, but we’re now having to move the date of the flood and/or Step Pyramid by about 500 years.

Source code and additional discussion is here:

GitHub - samboy/PopulationGrowth: Models of population growth in a world where the Noah story is a global cataclysm
 
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Larniavc

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God can perform a miracle where He just randomly mutates genes the right way, post-flood, so we get all the genetic diversity of modern humans.
This is where one must stop reading if one is using the scientific method. That’s not a good explanation: you can’t just say: ‘A then B, then some magic, then X’.
 
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samiam

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if one is using the scientific method.

I do not think anyone who takes the Noah’s Ark story seriously is using the scientific method, and, indeed, a lot of posters here are not using the scientific method. It’s like Doctor Who fans trying to solve the UNIT dating controversy where liberal “GodDidIt” explanations are made as needed for the narrative to not completely suspend disbelief.

My personal theory is that the Strait of Gibraltar broke in ancient times, and the Mediterranean Sea went from being farmland to being flooded, causing the flood story become part of ancient people’s oral history, one form of which became the Noah Story. See also: The story of Deucalion and Pyrrha. Not to mention the Gilgamesh flood story.

More to the point, a creationist institute has also come up with a computer model which they claim solves the re-population problem: Biblical human population growth model - creation.com

I was able to more or less reproduce their results, but getting, say, 20,000,000 people from eight people in 100 years, while possible, requires a bunch of “GodDidIt” miracles to work. Eight to 750,000 people in 200 years is probably the fastest we can have a reasonably plausible population growth.
 
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samiam

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Here’s the source code. It’s written in Lua 5.1, tested and runs in both Lua 5.1 and Lua 5.3.

Code:
#!/usr/bin/env lua

-- Public domain (or BSD0 if you must have a formal copyright and license)
-- By Sam Trenholme 2022

local people = {} -- Population
local thisWeek = 0 -- Weeks after -2370 (2370 BCE)
boyChance = 48 -- Chance out of 100 of giving birth to a boy
-- These ages are in *weeks* not years
preFloodDeathAge = 52000 -- People born before the flood live 1,000 years
postFloodDeathAge = 6240 -- As per Genesis 6:3 after the flood live 120 years
-- Keep in mind that as per [URL='https://www.jewfaq.org/marriage.htm']Marriage - Judaism 101 (JewFAQ)[/URL] a 12-year-old
-- girl getting married is allowed in traditional Jewish culture.  I will
-- assume that, on average, in ancient times women were 14 when they got
-- married.
minBirthAge = 728 -- They got married at 14 years (it was a long time ago)
maxBirthAge = 2080 -- Sarah (Genesis 17:17) aside, no pregnanacy once 40
gestationWeeks = 40 -- 38-42 weeks, we’ll make it 40
pregnancyChance = 8 -- 8% chance of getting pregnant every week
stillbirthChance = 2 -- This is per mil (not percent) chance of a pregnancy
                     -- becoming a stillbirth every week; it’s 0.2% here
deathChance = 1 -- Every week, everyone alive has a 0.1% of dying

--math.randomseed(os.time())
math.randomseed(222) -- Make this constant so others can reproduce results
rand = math.random

local function percent(p)
  if rand(0,99) < p then return true end
  return false
end
local function permil(p)
  if rand(0,999) < p then return true end
  return false
end

local function birth()
  local baby = {}
  if percent(boyChance) then baby.sex = "boy" else baby.sex = "girl" end
  baby.age = 0 -- Age is in weeks
  baby.weeksPregnant = 0 -- 0 means not pregnant
  baby.preFlood = false -- Person born after the flood, as per Gen 6:3
  baby.name = "You are number " .. tostring(#people + 1)
  baby.alive = true
  people[#people + 1] = baby
end

-- Show demographics
local function report()
  print("")
  print("Weekly demographic report")
  print("")
  print("Years after leaving ark: " .. tostring(thisWeek/52))
  print("Year: " .. tostring(-2370 + (thisWeek / 52)))
  print("Population: " .. tostring(#people))
  local girls = 0
  local children = 0
  local men = 0
  local women = 0
  local living = 0
  local adults = 0
  local isPregnant = 0
  local totalWeeks = 0
  for a = 1,#people do
    if people[a].alive then
      if people[a].sex == "girl" then girls = girls + 1 end
      if people[a].age < minBirthAge then children = children + 1 end
      if people[a].weeksPregnant and people[a].weeksPregnant > 0 then
        isPregnant = isPregnant + 1
    totalWeeks = totalWeeks + people[a].weeksPregnant
      end
      if people[a].age >= minBirthAge then
        if people[a].sex == "girl" then
          women = women + 1
        end
        if people[a].sex == "boy" then
          men = men + 1
        end
    adults = adults + 1
      end
      living = living + 1
    end
  end
  print("Living: " .. tostring(living))
  print("Girls: " .. tostring(girls))
  print("Men: " .. tostring(men))
  print("Women: " .. tostring(women))
  print("Adults: " .. tostring(adults))
  print("Pregnant women: " .. tostring(isPregnant))
  print("Avg. weeks pregnant: " .. tostring(totalWeeks / isPregnant))
  print("Children: " .. tostring(children))
end

-- Weekly tick: Every week, update age, etc
local function tick()
  thisWeek = thisWeek + 1
  for a = 1,#people do
    h = people[a]
    if h.sex == "girl" and h.alive and h.age >= minBirthAge and
       h.weeksPregnant == 0 and (h.preFlood or h.age <= maxBirthAge) and
       percent(pregnancyChance) then
      h.weeksPregnant = 1
    end
    if h.sex == "girl" and h.weeksPregnant >= 1 and h.alive then
      h.weeksPregnant = h.weeksPregnant + 1
      if permil(stillbirthChance) then h.weeksPregnant = 0 -- Miscarriage
      elseif h.weeksPregnant >= gestationWeeks then
        birth()
    if percent(5) then -- Twins are 2%, but 5% because of miracles
      birth()
      if percent(1) then -- Triplets!
        birth()
      end
    end
    h.weeksPregnant = 0
      end
    end
    -- People die of old age.
    if h.preFlood and h.age > preFloodDeathAge then
      h.alive = false
    end
    if h.preFlood == false and h.age > postFloodDeathAge then
      h.alive = false
    end
    -- Small chance of dying otherwise each month
    if permil(deathChance) then h.alive = false end
    -- One week older
    h.age = h.age + 1
  end
end
  
-- A handful of people leave the Ark
local function leaveArk()
  people[1] = {}
  people[1].name = "Noah"
  people[1].age = 21736 -- 418 years
  people[1].sex = "boy"
  people[1].alive = true
  people[1].preFlood = true

  people[2] = {}
  people[2].name = "noahsWife"
  people[2].age = 5200 -- 100 years
  people[2].sex = "girl"
  people[2].alive = true
  people[2].weeksPregnant = 0
  people[2].preFlood = true

  people[3] = {}
  people[3].name = "shem"
  people[3].age = 5096 -- 98 years
  people[3].sex = "boy"
  people[3].alive = true
  people[3].preFlood = true

  people[4] = {}
  people[4].name = "shemsWife"
  people[4].age = 1560 -- 30 years
  people[4].sex = "girl"
  people[4].alive = true
  people[4].weeksPregnant = 0
  people[4].preFlood = true

  people[5] = {}
  people[5].name = "ham"
  people[5].age = 4576 -- 88 years
  people[5].sex = "boy"
  people[5].alive = true
  people[5].preFlood = true

  people[6] = {}
  people[6].name = "hamsWife"
  people[6].age = 1560 -- 30 years
  people[6].sex = "girl"
  people[6].alive = true
  people[6].weeksPregnant = 0
  people[6].preFlood = true

  people[7] = {}
  people[7].name = "japeth"
  people[7].age = 5616
  people[7].sex = "boy"
  people[7].alive = true
  people[7].preFlood = true

  people[8] = {}
  people[8].name = "japethsWife"
  people[8].age = 1560 -- 30 years
  people[8].sex = "girl"
  people[8].alive = true
  people[8].weeksPregnant = 0
  people[8].preFlood = "true"

end

-- OK, let’s run the simulation
leaveArk()
for z=1,10400 do
  tick()
  if z % 52 == 0 then
    report()
    io.flush()
  end
end

Use my Lunacy fork of Lua if you want the exact same numbers I posted (Lunacy uses a custom random number generator): GitHub - samboy/lunacy: This is my go to “Bigger than AWK but smaller than Perl/Python/Ruby” scripting language. Based on Lua 5.1.
 
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Larniavc

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I do not think anyone who takes the Noah’s Ark story seriously is using the scientific method, and, indeed, a lot of posters here are not using the scientific method. It’s like Doctor Who fans trying to solve the UNIT dating controversy where liberal “GodDidIt” explanations are made as needed for the narrative to not completely suspend disbelief.

My personal theory is that the Strait of Gibraltar broke in ancient times, and the Mediterranean Sea went from being farmland to being flooded, causing the flood story become part of ancient people’s oral history, one form of which became the Noah Story. See also: The story of Deucalion and Pyrrha. Not to mention the Gilgamesh flood story.

More to the point, a creationist institute has also come up with a computer model which they claim solves the re-population problem: Biblical human population growth model - creation.com

I was able to more or less reproduce their results, but getting, say, 20,000,000 people from eight people in 100 years, while possible, requires a bunch of “GodDidIt” miracles to work. Eight to 750,000 people in 200 years is probably the fastest we can have a reasonably plausible population growth.
Then I'm not sure what you are trying to achieve. What are these mental gymnastics for?
 
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Larniavc

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Strait of Gibraltar broke in ancient times
The Zanclean flood occurred about five and a half million years ago. Long before humans.
 
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I do not think anyone who takes the Noah’s Ark story seriously is using the scientific method, and, indeed, a lot of posters here are not using the scientific method. It’s like Doctor Who fans trying to solve the UNIT dating controversy where liberal “GodDidIt” explanations are made as needed for the narrative to not completely suspend disbelief.

My personal theory is that the Strait of Gibraltar broke in ancient times, and the Mediterranean Sea went from being farmland to being flooded, causing the flood story become part of ancient people’s oral history, one form of which became the Noah Story. See also: The story of Deucalion and Pyrrha. Not to mention the Gilgamesh flood story.

More to the point, a creationist institute has also come up with a computer model which they claim solves the re-population problem: Biblical human population growth model - creation.com

I was able to more or less reproduce their results, but getting, say, 20,000,000 people from eight people in 100 years, while possible, requires a bunch of “GodDidIt” miracles to work. Eight to 750,000 people in 200 years is probably the fastest we can have a reasonably plausible population growth.
Why not learn something about the geological
history of the Med instead of dreaming up.a
personal theory?
Perhaps you are thinking of the Black sea
that was periodically reflooded by the gradual
rise in sea level during interglacial periods
such as the present.
 
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Shemjaza

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I do not think anyone who takes the Noah’s Ark story seriously is using the scientific method, and, indeed, a lot of posters here are not using the scientific method. It’s like Doctor Who fans trying to solve the UNIT dating controversy where liberal “GodDidIt” explanations are made as needed for the narrative to not completely suspend disbelief.

My personal theory is that the Strait of Gibraltar broke in ancient times, and the Mediterranean Sea went from being farmland to being flooded, causing the flood story become part of ancient people’s oral history, one form of which became the Noah Story. See also: The story of Deucalion and Pyrrha. Not to mention the Gilgamesh flood story.

More to the point, a creationist institute has also come up with a computer model which they claim solves the re-population problem: Biblical human population growth model - creation.com

I was able to more or less reproduce their results, but getting, say, 20,000,000 people from eight people in 100 years, while possible, requires a bunch of “GodDidIt” miracles to work. Eight to 750,000 people in 200 years is probably the fastest we can have a reasonably plausible population growth.

I suspect multiple significant but not catastrophic floods of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers are the historical origin for the Genesis and Gilgamesh narratives.

A hundred year storm could all but annihilate a bronze age culture if they were unlucky.
 
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