COVID-19 Cases Top 3 Million World Wide. U.S. Cases Set to Hit 1 Million by End of April

[The IbanezerScrooge]

Global Death rate: 6.9%
Resolved Case Death Rate: 19.4%

We're not slowing down yet. Even with increased testing, though that has been lacking.

And Florida, Georgia and other states are actually opening back up. Even with restrictions I think this is probably a mistake. On top of news/rumors that people who have had the virus and recovered are not showing immunity and are able to continue to spread it.

 

[dogs4thewin]

View attachment 275548

Global Death rate: 6.9%
Resolved Case Death Rate: 19.4%

We're not slowing down yet. Even with increased testing, though that has been lacking.

And Florida, Georgia and other states are actually opening back up. Even with restrictions I think this is probably a mistake. On top of news/rumors that people who have had the virus and recovered are not showing immunity and are able to continue to spread it.

I started a thread about what I noticed about the states that are re-opening we shell see in a couple of weeks.

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

I started a thread about what I noticed about the states that are re-opening we shell see in a couple of weeks.

Can you link? I don't see it. Thanks!

 

[dogs4thewin]

Can you link? I don't see it. Thanks!

opening up and policial parties

 

[Bobber]

View attachment 275548

Global Death rate: 6.9%
Resolved Case Death Rate: 19.4%

We're not slowing down yet. Even with increased testing, though that has been lacking.

And Florida, Georgia and other states are actually opening back up. Even with restrictions I think this is probably a mistake. On top of news/rumors that people who have had the virus and recovered are not showing immunity and are able to continue to spread it.

I think if they did over all testing they'd find a lot more people have it as carriers. This would actually make the global death rate not true at all but much, much lower.

 

[Hazelelponi]

View attachment 275548

Global Death rate: 6.9%
Resolved Case Death Rate: 19.4%

We're not slowing down yet. Even with increased testing, though that has been lacking.

And Florida, Georgia and other states are actually opening back up. Even with restrictions I think this is probably a mistake. On top of news/rumors that people who have had the virus and recovered are not showing immunity and are able to continue to spread it.

This is a better metric by which to understand what public health officials are talking about when they say it's slowing down:

Link

 

[The IbanezerScrooge]

U.S. cases just topped 1 million

 

[Ricky M]

I think if they did over all testing they'd find a lot more people have it as carriers. This would actually make the global death rate not true at all but much, much lower.

3 million out of 7.8 billion. 1 million out of 330 million. It's not a good situation, but when numbers are skewed to make it look worse, it doesn't help anyone.

 

[CRAZY_CAT_WOMAN]

View attachment 275548

Global Death rate: 6.9%
Resolved Case Death Rate: 19.4%

We're not slowing down yet. Even with increased testing, though that has been lacking.

And Florida, Georgia and other states are actually opening back up. Even with restrictions I think this is probably a mistake. On top of news/rumors that people who have had the virus and recovered are not showing immunity and are able to continue to spread it.

It's probably a mistake . Since the numbers are going. We should have treated it like China. Forced Quarantine for everyone. Especially people coming back from China ,Italy and other countries.

 

[Bobber]

U.S. cases just topped 1 million

It's probably a lot, lot more than that and if so what does that tell us?

 

[wing2000]

It's probably a lot, lot more than that and if so what does that tell us?

...if half of the US population is eventually infected over the next year, a .6 percent fatality rate would kill a million people.

 

[Bobber]

...if half of the US population is eventually infected over the next year, a .6 percent fatality rate would kill a million people.

Hold it now....the question really is if a lot more people are infected NOW....what does that tell us. You're going by the assumption that if half the population were infected in the future their symptoms and state of being would all be similar to the ones having a real struggle with the virus.

 

[sfs]

Hold it now....the question really is if a lot more people are infected NOW....what does that tell us. You're going by the assumption that if half the population were infected in the future their symptoms and state of being would all be similar to the ones having a real struggle with the virus.

I'm not clear on what you're asking. After you correct for the fact that a lot more people have been infected than have tested positive, the death rate is in the range of 0.5% - 1.0% per infected person. That means a lot of people will die, since the bulk of the population (at least apart from the hottest of hot spots) still hasn't been infected.

 

[KCfromNC]

It's probably a lot, lot more than that and if so what does that tell us?

It tells me we don't have enough information to justify calls to reopen the country in at the peak of a global pandemic.

 

[Ricky M]

I'm not clear on what you're asking. After you correct for the fact that a lot more people have been infected than have tested positive, the death rate is in the range of 0.5% - 1.0% per infected person. That means a lot of people will die, since the bulk of the population (at least apart from the hottest of hot spots) still hasn't been infected.

Which poses an interesting conundrum... herd immunity will be the key to getting control over this, but you can't achieve herd immunity until the herd is exposed. I think the total lock-down is going to prove a mistake and extend the amount of time it will take to achieve herd immunity.

 

[sfs]

Which poses an interesting conundrum... herd immunity will be the key to getting control over this, but you can't achieve herd immunity until the herd is exposed.

You can achieve herd immunity by exposing most of the herd or by vaccinating most of the herd. In the absence of a vaccine, you can achieve herd immunity by exposing more of the population if the exposure is rapid or somewhat less if it is slower. You can expose them with an overwhelmed health care system or with a functioning system, and with working therapeutics in hand or without them.

In each case, slowing transmission leads to better health outcomes.