I've seen ChristianCenturian post this link to the CDC.gov HIV statistics page on more than one occasion, which among other things indicates that homosexuals account for at least 41.6% of reported HIV cases in 2003.
I just have a few comments on them: the first thing to notice is that through to 2003, gay men accounted for about 48% of reported cases, and in 2003 they accounted for only 42%. At the very least, these are optimistic figures, because it means that the infection rate is much lower than it was before.
As far as I know, the statistics are accurate, however the implications of them are very misleading: first, the reason why gay men have a higher tendency to have AIDS has nothing to do with superstitious thinking, its just a matter of statistics. The statistics appear very unintuitive, but I assure you that our intuitional expectations have nothing to do with statistics (for instance we intuitively expect HIV to be evenly distributed across everyone, when in fact that isn't the case), and everything will make sense once the statistics are explained.
I've divided my comments into a few parts to make it slightly easier to read.
Individual Risk Of Infection: Heterosexual vs. Homosexual Men
Here is why the statistics work out the way they do:
- Imagine we have a population of 1000 people (500 men and 500 women), and that 2% of that population (or 20 people) is made up of homosexual males. We are neglecting lesbians and bisexuals for the purposes of simplicity.
- Imagine two men from that population, one heterosexual and one homosexual, both have HIV and don't know it.
- Now, if we assume that both HIV-positive men have sex with a random individual in the population, the risk of infection to any single female is 1:479, however the risk of infection to any single homosexual man is 1:19.
In other words, if we assume that both HIV-positive men will have an equal number of sexual partners and safe-sex, every sexual partner that a homosexual male meets have a greater chance of being infected.
Individual Risk With Condom Use
Of course, what I've mentioned above is only a most ideal case, because statistically speaking a heterosexual man is more likely to use a condom than a homosexual man. This is just a consequence of statistics as well, because having unprotected heterosexual sex runs a 1:10 chance of having an unwanted child (I don't have a source to back that statistic up, but it isn't essential for me to make my point), so the reinforcing factors for wearing a condom are much higher for heterosexual men than for homosexual men.
Unfortunately, most people forget that condoms aren't just for protecting against unwanted children, they are also for protecting your health. Because heterosexual men are more likely to use condoms than homosexual men, the individual risk for any single potential sexual partner is greater for homosexual men than for heterosexual women. Here are just a few mock statistics to illustrate the point:
- Assume that an average heterosexual man uses a condom for every 3 out of 4 partners, and that an average homosexual man uses a condom for every 2 out of 4 partners.
- Using the statistics above, the individual risk for sexual partners can be plotted according to the formula [individual risk of meeting an HIV-positive partner] * [Frequency that HIV-positive partner uses a condom]. For now, condoms are going to be assumed to be 100% effective, just for the purposes of simplicity:
-- Risk for heterosexual women: (1:479) * (3:4) = 3:1916, or ~1:639, or approximately .1568%
-- Risk for homosexual men: (1:19) * (1:2) = 1:38, or approximately 2.632%
Note On Statistics
The above does not take into account the average number of sexual partners that each heterosexual male and homosexual male will have. If its true that homosexual men have more partners, then the individual risk for each partner goes up slightly. (So far, I have not found reliable statistics on the number of partners heterosexual and homosexual males have.)
We also have to contrast these USA-centric statistics to the AIDS epidemic in Africa. The reason why the epidemic is so horrible in Africa is because the use of condoms is less frequent, and there are more open wounds where HIV can be transmitted. So the incidence of AIDS in Africa accelerates more quickly than in the US.
Conclusions
Hopefully, now, the explanation for why AIDS is more frequent in homosexual men than in any other group becomes more obvious: it is a myth that HIV is going to be evenly distributed, simply because the individual risk of infection for heterosexual and homosexual populations is not the same.
Statistically speaking, homosexual men are more likely to encounter an HIV-positive sexual partner and more likely to spread than his heterosexual counterparts, so the incidence of HIV-infection will accelerate more quickly among homosexuals than among heterosexuals. Even worse, as the number of infected homosexual males increases, the risk of infection for potential partners increases at a faster rate than his heterosexual counterparts.
So, take the above situation and fast-forward a few years, and what do you have: obviously, you have a greater percentage of infected homosexual males than infected heterosexuals, and a larger number of infected homosexuals overall.
Postscript
Unfortunately, there is a stigma among bigots to believe that prevalence of AIDS among homosexuals indicates that homosexuality is bad. That is a false conclusion, because the way the statistics and individual risk work out, the fact that homosexual men make up a higher number of new HIV infections a year is not statistically out of the ordinary.
Its not the fact that they are homosexual that matters, its because they have a smaller pool of potential partners, and that increases the individual risk of infection. The same conclusions hold true for any population where any single individual has only 19 potential partners, such as a population of 20 heterosexual men and 20 heterosexual women on a deserted island. If one person has HIV in such a small population, it could ravage the entire community.
Ironically, you'll notice that bisexuals have the least individual risk, because they have the largest pool of potential partners: for bisexual women its 479 men plus whatever number of lesbian and bisexual women, and for bisexual men its 500 women plus 20 gay men plus whatever number of other bisexual men. And if we assumed everyone in the population I have above was a bisexual with no change in the number of HIV infections, then bisexuals have about a 2:1000 or 1:500 risk of infection (assuming bisexuals have an equal number of male and female partners). So, the next time you hear someone say that being gay is immoral because it increases the risk of HIV, ask that person if he or she is a bisexual; if they say they aren't, call them a hypocritical immoral weasel.
Of course, hopefully this has been a valuable lesson in statistics for everyone. If you insist on being sexually active, it doesn't matter if you are heterosexual or not, you should always use a condom, get yourself tested for HIV often. And if condoms are 99% effective, then you can stop 99% of all future HIV-infections by just using a condom everytime.
This message has been brought to you by a heterosexual male.
I just have a few comments on them: the first thing to notice is that through to 2003, gay men accounted for about 48% of reported cases, and in 2003 they accounted for only 42%. At the very least, these are optimistic figures, because it means that the infection rate is much lower than it was before.
As far as I know, the statistics are accurate, however the implications of them are very misleading: first, the reason why gay men have a higher tendency to have AIDS has nothing to do with superstitious thinking, its just a matter of statistics. The statistics appear very unintuitive, but I assure you that our intuitional expectations have nothing to do with statistics (for instance we intuitively expect HIV to be evenly distributed across everyone, when in fact that isn't the case), and everything will make sense once the statistics are explained.
I've divided my comments into a few parts to make it slightly easier to read.
Individual Risk Of Infection: Heterosexual vs. Homosexual Men
Here is why the statistics work out the way they do:
- Imagine we have a population of 1000 people (500 men and 500 women), and that 2% of that population (or 20 people) is made up of homosexual males. We are neglecting lesbians and bisexuals for the purposes of simplicity.
- Imagine two men from that population, one heterosexual and one homosexual, both have HIV and don't know it.
- Now, if we assume that both HIV-positive men have sex with a random individual in the population, the risk of infection to any single female is 1:479, however the risk of infection to any single homosexual man is 1:19.
In other words, if we assume that both HIV-positive men will have an equal number of sexual partners and safe-sex, every sexual partner that a homosexual male meets have a greater chance of being infected.
Individual Risk With Condom Use
Of course, what I've mentioned above is only a most ideal case, because statistically speaking a heterosexual man is more likely to use a condom than a homosexual man. This is just a consequence of statistics as well, because having unprotected heterosexual sex runs a 1:10 chance of having an unwanted child (I don't have a source to back that statistic up, but it isn't essential for me to make my point), so the reinforcing factors for wearing a condom are much higher for heterosexual men than for homosexual men.
Unfortunately, most people forget that condoms aren't just for protecting against unwanted children, they are also for protecting your health. Because heterosexual men are more likely to use condoms than homosexual men, the individual risk for any single potential sexual partner is greater for homosexual men than for heterosexual women. Here are just a few mock statistics to illustrate the point:
- Assume that an average heterosexual man uses a condom for every 3 out of 4 partners, and that an average homosexual man uses a condom for every 2 out of 4 partners.
- Using the statistics above, the individual risk for sexual partners can be plotted according to the formula [individual risk of meeting an HIV-positive partner] * [Frequency that HIV-positive partner uses a condom]. For now, condoms are going to be assumed to be 100% effective, just for the purposes of simplicity:
-- Risk for heterosexual women: (1:479) * (3:4) = 3:1916, or ~1:639, or approximately .1568%
-- Risk for homosexual men: (1:19) * (1:2) = 1:38, or approximately 2.632%
Note On Statistics
The above does not take into account the average number of sexual partners that each heterosexual male and homosexual male will have. If its true that homosexual men have more partners, then the individual risk for each partner goes up slightly. (So far, I have not found reliable statistics on the number of partners heterosexual and homosexual males have.)
We also have to contrast these USA-centric statistics to the AIDS epidemic in Africa. The reason why the epidemic is so horrible in Africa is because the use of condoms is less frequent, and there are more open wounds where HIV can be transmitted. So the incidence of AIDS in Africa accelerates more quickly than in the US.
Conclusions
Hopefully, now, the explanation for why AIDS is more frequent in homosexual men than in any other group becomes more obvious: it is a myth that HIV is going to be evenly distributed, simply because the individual risk of infection for heterosexual and homosexual populations is not the same.
Statistically speaking, homosexual men are more likely to encounter an HIV-positive sexual partner and more likely to spread than his heterosexual counterparts, so the incidence of HIV-infection will accelerate more quickly among homosexuals than among heterosexuals. Even worse, as the number of infected homosexual males increases, the risk of infection for potential partners increases at a faster rate than his heterosexual counterparts.
So, take the above situation and fast-forward a few years, and what do you have: obviously, you have a greater percentage of infected homosexual males than infected heterosexuals, and a larger number of infected homosexuals overall.
Postscript
Unfortunately, there is a stigma among bigots to believe that prevalence of AIDS among homosexuals indicates that homosexuality is bad. That is a false conclusion, because the way the statistics and individual risk work out, the fact that homosexual men make up a higher number of new HIV infections a year is not statistically out of the ordinary.
Its not the fact that they are homosexual that matters, its because they have a smaller pool of potential partners, and that increases the individual risk of infection. The same conclusions hold true for any population where any single individual has only 19 potential partners, such as a population of 20 heterosexual men and 20 heterosexual women on a deserted island. If one person has HIV in such a small population, it could ravage the entire community.
Ironically, you'll notice that bisexuals have the least individual risk, because they have the largest pool of potential partners: for bisexual women its 479 men plus whatever number of lesbian and bisexual women, and for bisexual men its 500 women plus 20 gay men plus whatever number of other bisexual men. And if we assumed everyone in the population I have above was a bisexual with no change in the number of HIV infections, then bisexuals have about a 2:1000 or 1:500 risk of infection (assuming bisexuals have an equal number of male and female partners). So, the next time you hear someone say that being gay is immoral because it increases the risk of HIV, ask that person if he or she is a bisexual; if they say they aren't, call them a hypocritical immoral weasel.
Of course, hopefully this has been a valuable lesson in statistics for everyone. If you insist on being sexually active, it doesn't matter if you are heterosexual or not, you should always use a condom, get yourself tested for HIV often. And if condoms are 99% effective, then you can stop 99% of all future HIV-infections by just using a condom everytime.
This message has been brought to you by a heterosexual male.
