CNN poll of polls: Obama's lead shrinks to just one point

[MichaelFJF]

(CNN) — Sen. Barack Obama’s lead in national polls has shrunk to one point, according to CNN’s latest “poll of polls.”
Sunday’s poll of polls shows Obama leading John McCain 44 to 43 percent.
Obama held a three-point lead in Saturday’s poll of polls. The senator from Illinois was leading McCain 45-42 percent.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/


It's a horse race, folks.

 

[Bootstrap]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/
It's a horse race, folks.

You betcha!

And with less than 60 days to go, doesn't it feel like the candidates are still introducing themselves or reintroducing themselves?

Every talk show, every stop counts ....

Jonathan

 

[oldbetang]

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/


It's a horse race, folks.

CNN’s most recent poll of polls consists of three surveys: CBS (September 1-3), Gallup (September 4-6), and Diageo/Hotline (September 2-4). The poll of polls does not have a sampling error.

​

Not quite up to date.

 

[oldbetang]

McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.

 

[Bootstrap]

McCain leads Obama by 54%-44% among those seen as most likely to vote.

I found the last paragraph of that comforting:

However, in an analysis of the impact of political conventions since 1960, Sabato concluded that post-convention polls signal the election's outcome only about half the time. "You could flip a coin and be about as predictive," he says. "It is really surprising how quickly convention memories fade."

Jonathan

 

[MichaelFJF]

Yeah, under normal circumstances I'd agree that convention memories fade. I don't think anyone will forget the RNC and their VP pick very soon though.

 

[oldbetang]

I found the last paragraph of that comforting:



Jonathan

Oh, I don't think that you should be panicking just yet. However, I don't think we've seen the peak of the bounce yet either.

 

[kermit]

McCain has been trailing Obama the whole time. His surges (like a post convention bounce) bring him close or give him a slight lead very temporarily and then he falls behind again.

This is not the first time I've heard "It's a horse race" only to have Obama up by 4+ points a few days later.

The bulk of McCain's bounce is from Palin. Or more acurately the tabla rosa, novelty effect; that she's new and unknown and people project onto her what they want her be. If he keeps her away from the press like is proposed he'll see his bounce gone by mid-week.

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

Who cares?

Whichever one of the Demopublicans wins, America loses.