Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Tops Biden And Trump In New Favorability Poll

[ThatRobGuy]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Tops Biden And Trump In New Favorability Poll

A new poll showed Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. soaring above other 2024 presidential candidates in terms of favorability, though Biden and Trump still lead the Democratic and Republican fields.

www.forbes.com

2024 Democratic presidential contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—an environmental lawyer with anti-vaccine views and a strong family dynasty at his back—has higher favorability numbers than either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll by The Economist and YouGov, even as Biden maintains a lead in the 2024 primary.



I think this should be pretty concerning to people in both parties and should cause them to take a long hard look at the "horse they're putting their money on".

Rewind 2-3 years, being an anti-vaxxer was viewed as the worst thing someone could be. Even having a prominent platform and allowing them to speak was verboten and drew calls for people to get tossed off the air.

Fast-forward to now:
Kennedy Jr. was viewed favorably by 49% of respondents and unfavorably by just 30%, leaving him with a net rating of 19 points—higher than any other candidate in the poll, which surveyed 1,500 adult respondents from June 10 to 13.

Biden had a negative 9-point net favorability rating, with 52% of respondents viewing him somewhat or very unfavorably while 45% have very or somewhat favorable impressions, and Trump had a negative 10-point net rating, with 53% viewing him unfavorably and 43% favorably.

BIG NUMBER​

20%. A CNN poll last month showed that about one-fifth of Democratic voters supported Kennedy's run for president. Some 60% planned to support Biden, and 8% favored Williamson.


And to expound upon that:
A collection of tech moguls have gotten behind Kennedy Jr. in recent weeks, including former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, Social Capital founder Chamath Palihapitiya and venture capitalist David Sacks. Billionaire Twitter owner Elon Musk hosted him for a Twitter Spaces discussion earlier this month


So both the Twitter head that many people on the left liked (Dorsey) and the one they hate (Musk) have both given him something of a platform.



If there's a silver lining in all this, it's that it would seem the climate is right for 3rd party candidates and "others" keeping the trajectory going of getting more and more support with each passing election cycle.

 

[GreatLakes4Ever]

Speaking to a certified hate group that puts Hitler quotes on their newsletters is probably going to hurt those numbers.

 

[trunks2k]

I highly suspect that any favorability of RFK Jr is due primarily because of his name.

 

[KCfromNC]

I highly suspect that any favorability of RFK Jr is due primarily because of his name.

Probably combined with not really knowing anything about his policies or him personally.

That is, the name helps if people don't know his actual stances on issues. Once those views do become known, the name isn't going to help.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

I highly suspect that any favorability of RFK Jr is due primarily because of his name.

Probably combined with not really knowing anything about his policies or him personally.

That is, the name helps if people don't know his actual stances on issues. Once those views do become known, the name isn't going to help.

I knew who his Dad and Uncle were...but I've always thought of him, primarily, as a conspiracy theorist.

Oddly enough, this isn't the first time some people (even prominent Democrats) have given him at least some form of support.

He was on Obama's short list to become the Administrator of the EPA (which is actually a role he would've been pretty well qualified for giving his education and professional background as an environmental attorney -- he was only withdrawn because there were concerns that his prior drug arrest would be a likely roadblock in terms of Senate confirmation)

His status as "pusher of MMR vaccine conspiracies" was already well-disseminated information back in the mid-2000s.


I think the probable answer is one that's likely uncomfortable for a lot of Democrats. Which is, anti-vaxxerism being largely a "right wing thing" was only short lived and specific to covid, and now that covid has settled down, things are going back to the way they were pre-2020, which was that vaccine conspiracy sentiments were equally distributed between the two sides and didn't have the typical partisan divide that other conspiracies can tend to have, and therefore, not a "deal-breaker" in the eyes of a lot of people.

Anti-vaccination beliefs don’t follow the usual political polarization

Opposition to vaccines still prevents many children from getting needed preventative care. Understanding who is opposed, and why, can help, but the answers may surprise you.

theconversation.com

This article sums up what the anti-vaccine situation was in 2017 before covid was a thing...

And it would seem as if prior to covid, with regards to sentiments about vaccines, it wasn't so much a political spectrum but something of a political horseshoe, where the furthest parts of the right and left were somewhat in alignment on that issue.

Many now think of "anti-vaxxer" as a die-hard far-right person, but rewind about 6-7 years, and there was a time where if someone was espousing vaccine conspiracies, you could've been talking to a right-wing anti-government doomsday prepper, or it could've been a left-wing hippie who believed "all cures have to be natural and come from mother earth, I'm going to use these healing crystals instead"

 

[trunks2k]

I knew who his Dad and Uncle were...but I've always thought of him, primarily, as a conspiracy theorist.

Oddly enough, this isn't the first time some people (even prominent Democrats) have given him at least some form of support.

Yes, people who are pretty familiar with him know he's a conspiracy theory kook. But I'm willing to bet not many people know who he is much beyond that he's a Kennedy.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Yes, people who are pretty familiar with him know he's a conspiracy theory kook. But I'm willing to bet not many people know who he is much beyond that he's a Kennedy.

I think he's been pretty popular in the environmental activism scene for a few decades now. Clearly Obama was well aware of him if he had him on the list of candidates to head up the EPA during his second term.

And I would have to imagine that after his name started coming up more and more after that first poll showed that 20% of Democrats favored him over Biden (he's being talked about pretty regularly on mainstream outlets lately), that people must have googled him in that interim and saw what he was known for. His name has long been linked to Jenny McCarthy and Wakefield.

But none the less, the recent favorability poll happened a month after the first one (meaning people had plenty of time to look him up).

I'll stick with my original theory, which is that now that covid is largely "over" (or at the very least, largely a non-issue now), things are trending back to the way they were prior, where anti-vaccine/vaccine-skepticism wasn't a "right vs. left" thing like it was for those 2-3 years, and the the anti-vaccine types were split between both sides, and for the remainder of people, someone having those particular views isn't being viewed as the dealbreaker that it would've been in 2021.


This article is a little earlier than the previous one I linked (this one's from 2014)

https://www.realclearscience.com/journal_club/2014/10/20/are_liberals_or_conservatives_more_anti-vaccine_108905.html

During that time, blue states had the highest number of non-medical exemptions issued for vaccines, and the most "pro-vaccine" states were red states (they also mentioned that Blue states during that time had some of the highest percentage of people buying into the anti-fluoride junk science).

That tells me that the "follow the science convictions" we saw from some on the left during covid were more of a political stance, and less of a sincere ideological position. Because vocal people on the right were claiming the covid vaccine was bad were rejecting mask wearing, some on the left responded by making "taking covid as seriously as possible" a virtue (that they wouldn't have held otherwise) and manifested in the form of healthy 20-somethings people getting jabbed 4 times, wearing two masks, and cutting off ties with friends and family over it.


When things settled down a bit, things are operating as they were before where it's "yeah, RFK Jr has some cooky ideas, but he's strong on the environment and holds progressive views on a lot of other issues, so we'll let some of the other stuff slide"

 

[RocksInMyHead]

If you look at the poll results, Kennedy's favorability is pretty evenly distributed, with a slight lean towards Republican/conservative voters. 44% of Dems view him favorably or somewhat favorably, 48% of Independents, and 55% of Republicans. Compare that to Trump, who comes in at 17% / 36% / 82% or Biden at 82% / 38% / 10%. While he does have higher overall favorability ratings, they're rather decentralized, and he's not going to be winning any primaries.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

44% of Dems view him favorably or somewhat favorably

he's not going to be winning any primaries.

Well obviously he's not going to be winning anything anytime soon... the point of the thread wasn't to suggest that we're going to have President RFK Jr...

But if you were to poll a democratic cohort of people about a prominent anti-vaxxer in 2020-2021, do you think 44% would've viewed him favorably or somewhat favorably?

Jack Dorsey was kicking people off his platform for spreading vaccine misinformation during covid.

Now, he's endorsing one of the most prominent anti-vaxxers in history

Ex-Twitter leader Jack Dorsey endorses RFK Jr. for president

Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey appeared to endorse anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the Democratic presidential nomination over the weekend. Dorsey retweeted a video of Kennedy sayin…

thehill.com

I'm just highlighting that either the democratic resentment toward anti-vaxxerism is fading back to where it was in 2017 where it's sort of a "meh, it's cooky, but it's not a deal breaker", or that there's enough dissatisfaction with Biden that 20% of his own party would prefer a conspiracy theorist over him. (when 2 years ago, they were suggesting that anti-vaxxers should be fired and deplatformed)

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Well obviously he's not going to be winning anything anytime soon... the point of the thread wasn't to suggest that we're going to have President RFK Jr...

But if you were to poll a democratic cohort of people about a prominent anti-vaxxer in 2020-2021, do you think 44% would've viewed him favorably or somewhat favorably?

You're assuming that most people are aware of Kennedy's views about vaccines. Personally, that wasn't something that I was really aware of until he threw his hat into the ring as a presidential candidate, and that only because I pay some attention to politics.

Jack Dorsey was kicking people off his platform for spreading vaccine misinformation during covid.

Now, he's endorsing one of the most prominent anti-vaxxers in history

Ex-Twitter leader Jack Dorsey endorses RFK Jr. for president

Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey appeared to endorse anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. for the Democratic presidential nomination over the weekend. Dorsey retweeted a video of Kennedy sayin…

thehill.com

Jack Dorsey is one man - one very rich man with some rather strange political views sometimes (he supported Tulsi Gabbard in 2020, for example). I'm not sure he should be viewed as a representative sample.

I'm just highlighting that either the democratic resentment toward anti-vaxxerism is fading back to where it was in 2017 where it's sort of a "meh, it's cooky, but it's not a deal breaker", or that there's enough dissatisfaction with Biden that 20% of his own party would prefer a conspiracy theorist over him. (when 2 years ago, they were suggesting that anti-vaxxers should be fired and deplatformed)

This was not a universal view. ~10% of Democrats were never vaccinated, and ~16-20% were opposed to vaccine mandates (source). Furthermore, 17% of Democrats apparently have a favorable view of Trump - so 20% preferring Kennedy (especially if not all of them are aware of his views on vaccines) is hardly surprising.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

You're assuming that most people are aware of Kennedy's views about vaccines. Personally, that wasn't something that I was really aware of until he threw his hat into the ring as a presidential candidate, and that only because I pay some attention to politics.

I would assume quite a few were/are aware of him and what he's all about

I think you're likely an outlier in that regard (of not being aware of his anti-vaccine status)

https://www.npr.org/2017/01/10/509185540/despite-the-facts-trump-once-again-embraces-vaccine-skeptics

How Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Distorted Vaccine Science

His anti-vaccine credentials date back to 2005

www.scientificamerican.com

Vast Majority of Americans Say Benefits of Childhood Vaccines Outweigh Risks

While most Americans support requiring childhood vaccinations for measles, mumps and rubella, parents of young children rate the risks of the vaccine higher and the benefits lower.

www.pewresearch.org

Donald Trump said to give vaccine skeptic Robert Kennedy Jr. chair of new panel that will probe vaccine safety

Scientists have repeatedly said there is no link between autism and vaccinations.

www.cnbc.com

https://www.cnn.com/2017/01/10/politics/robert-f-kennedy-jr-donald-trump-vaccine-commission/index.html

(these are all articles from well before covid)

Major publications were have been doing articles about him (and what he stands for) for nearly a decade now. (many of them invoked it as a means of going after Trump in 2017 for using RFK Jr. to pander to certain anti-vaccine types)


But, now that it's been made very public (with regards to his anti-vaccine stances), if he's still polling at 20% among democrats in a month (or if that number goes up a bit), I think we can, at that point, rule out the "they just don't know that dirty little secret about him"

Jack Dorsey is one man - one very rich man with some rather strange political views sometimes (he supported Tulsi Gabbard in 2020, for example). I'm not sure he should be viewed as a representative sample.

...but he was "one man" with a heck of a lot of power and influence.

And if you recall, one of the reasons why so many progressives were upset about him leaving and Musk taking over was precisely because Musk declared his intent to put guys like Robert Malone back on Twitter and remove some of the vaccine misinformation filtering that Dorsey had in place.

This was not a universal view. ~10% of Democrats were never vaccinated, and ~16-20% were opposed to vaccine mandates (source). Furthermore, 17% of Democrats apparently have a favorable view of Trump - so 20% preferring Kennedy (especially if not all of them are aware of his views on vaccines) is hardly surprising.

Like I said, time will tell. If he's still sitting a 44% favorability among Democrats in a month or so, then that may prove my theory that things are drifting back to where they were pre-pandemic (where the medical science quackery existed in relatively numbers on both sides)

It was only during the pandemic where you had the situation of medical misinformation heavily skewing to the right-leaning base, prior to that, you could find people like that pretty easily on both sides of the aisle.

Medical-related conspiracy stuff doesn't tend to fall into the same left v. right dynamic that many other conspiracies do.
(For instance, if you're talking to a person who thinks climate change is a hoax, betting odds are that you're talking to someone on the right-wing... if you're talking to someone who thinks "Bush did 9/11", you're probably talking to someone from the left)

Things like
"Vaccines cause autism"
"Chiropractors are real doctors"
"Homeopathy actually does something"
"Magnet therapy is real"
"The government is putting fluoride in the water to make us docile"

...are beliefs that had somewhat equal pervasiveness in both political parties pre-covid.

 

[Jamdoc]

I highly suspect that any favorability of RFK Jr is due primarily because of his name.

I think the opposite. I think a lot of people just really tired of trump and biden and anyone with any chance to win "sure back them"

 

[JSRG]

Speaking to a certified hate group that puts Hitler quotes on their newsletters is probably going to hurt those numbers.

I have no idea what this is in reference to. Can you clarify?

 

[ranunculus]

I have no idea what this is in reference to. Can you clarify?

Moms For Liberty, a non profit that tries to meddle in school curriculums. They try to get their way through harassment and intimidation of school administrators and is basically an anti-woke Q-anon adjacent conspiracy group.

 

[returntosender]

I like that idea

 

[GreatLakes4Ever]

I have no idea what this is in reference to. Can you clarify?

Robert F Kennedy Jr is going to speak at a conference of this group

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1671262336458399747

Who puts this in their newsletter

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1671879149970137093

 

[Landon Caeli]

I think they're suggesting that no sociopolitical activists should "own" the youth, and that likewise, Hitler was a monster.

 

[ThatRobGuy]

Robert F Kennedy Jr is going to speak at a conference of this group

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1671262336458399747

Who puts this in their newsletter

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1671879149970137093

I think the angle they were going for was trying to compare left-leaning public schools to Hitler, and not trying to cite Hitler as a "good guy people should look up to".

Sort of a "See, this is how the liberal public school system thinks!" kind of vibe.

There was a context for the quote they added which read:
“The quote from a horrific leader should put parents on alert, If the government has control over our children today, they control our country’s future. We The People must be vigilant and protect children from an overreaching government.”

Moms for Liberty chapter apologizes for quoting Hitler in its newsletter

An Indiana chapter of the nonprofit group Moms for Liberty is apologizing and condemning Adolf Hitler after using a quote attributed to the Nazi leader in its newsletter.

apnews.com

But it was in extremely poor taste on their part.



Although, I will say, for some elected democrats to act shocked and appalled by this approach...it rings a tad hollow considering many of them did the same thing for 3 years.

https://www.cnn.com/2019/03/20/politics/james-clyburn-trump-hitler-comparison/index.html

Former governor stands by tweet comparing Trump to Hitler

Former New Jersey Gov. Christie Whitman says she stands by a tweet she deleted in which she compared President Donald Trump to Adolf Hitler.

apnews.com

People shouldn't be invoking Hitler for the purposes of trying to compare their political opponents to him...full stop.

 

[GreatLakes4Ever]

I think they're suggesting that no sociopolitical activists should "own" the youth, and that likewise, Hitler was a monster.

Where are they suggesting that in the newsletter. That quote is above the stories of their newsletter, set apart, without comment in an area that traditionally newsletters put who they are. I think they support that quote and using only that newsletter, you are going to be very hard pressed to prove me wrong.

 

[Ana the Ist]

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Tops Biden And Trump In New Favorability Poll

A new poll showed Democrat Robert F. Kennedy Jr. soaring above other 2024 presidential candidates in terms of favorability, though Biden and Trump still lead the Democratic and Republican fields.

www.forbes.com

2024 Democratic presidential contender Robert F. Kennedy Jr.—an environmental lawyer with anti-vaccine views and a strong family dynasty at his back—has higher favorability numbers than either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump, according to a new poll by The Economist and YouGov, even as Biden maintains a lead in the 2024 primary.



I think this should be pretty concerning to people in both parties and should cause them to take a long hard look at the "horse they're putting their money on".

Rewind 2-3 years, being an anti-vaxxer was viewed as the worst thing someone could be. Even having a prominent platform and allowing them to speak was verboten and drew calls for people to get tossed off the air.

Fast-forward to now:
Kennedy Jr. was viewed favorably by 49% of respondents and unfavorably by just 30%, leaving him with a net rating of 19 points—higher than any other candidate in the poll, which surveyed 1,500 adult respondents from June 10 to 13.

Biden had a negative 9-point net favorability rating, with 52% of respondents viewing him somewhat or very unfavorably while 45% have very or somewhat favorable impressions, and Trump had a negative 10-point net rating, with 53% viewing him unfavorably and 43% favorably.

BIG NUMBER​

20%. A CNN poll last month showed that about one-fifth of Democratic voters supported Kennedy's run for president. Some 60% planned to support Biden, and 8% favored Williamson.


And to expound upon that:
A collection of tech moguls have gotten behind Kennedy Jr. in recent weeks, including former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey, Social Capital founder Chamath Palihapitiya and venture capitalist David Sacks. Billionaire Twitter owner Elon Musk hosted him for a Twitter Spaces discussion earlier this month


So both the Twitter head that many people on the left liked (Dorsey) and the one they hate (Musk) have both given him something of a platform.



If there's a silver lining in all this, it's that it would seem the climate is right for 3rd party candidates and "others" keeping the trajectory going of getting more and more support with each passing election cycle.

Seems unlikely to win with that voice.