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Can we estimate the probability?
- Thread starter SharpSolaris
- Start date
"So God created mankind in his own image, in the image of God he created them; male and female he created them."
If we could create an artificial intelligence - AI1 and AI1 ​​could create an AI2 (and etc), probability that we are AI - increases​.
More the "levels", more the probability. If "levels" will become more and more... How we shall be able to justify our own uniqueness?
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I do not expect any comments.
If we could create an artificial intelligence - AI1 and AI1 ​​could create an AI2 (and etc), probability that we are AI - increases​.
More the "levels", more the probability. If "levels" will become more and more... How we shall be able to justify our own uniqueness?
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I do not expect any comments.
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How we shall be able to say that we are not AI? What makes us unique in this series: Ai1, AI2... AI142... AI1734645
=)
=)
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Calculating the probability is a non-linear problem. I think about how I would calculate the probability by formulating a neural network. Granted, it's going to be a really, really big neural network, and there is no way the biggest supercomputer could ever compute it, but one can still theorize.
The problem with calculating the probability via a neural network is that you have to train the neural network. For that to occur, you have to feed it a bunch of inputs presuming that there is a God. And then, you have to feed it a bunch of inputs presuming there is not. And then you feed it some real inputs mirroring reality, and the neural net spits out a probability that there is a God. Except, we don't have the data where it is known for sure there is a God or when it is not. The latter--the reality--is the ONLY data we have. Unless you wish to say that in reality, it is known 100% there is a God, in which case there is no point doing any of this.
So I'm going to say no: there is no way to calculate the probability. Insufficient data.
The problem with calculating the probability via a neural network is that you have to train the neural network. For that to occur, you have to feed it a bunch of inputs presuming that there is a God. And then, you have to feed it a bunch of inputs presuming there is not. And then you feed it some real inputs mirroring reality, and the neural net spits out a probability that there is a God. Except, we don't have the data where it is known for sure there is a God or when it is not. The latter--the reality--is the ONLY data we have. Unless you wish to say that in reality, it is known 100% there is a God, in which case there is no point doing any of this.
So I'm going to say no: there is no way to calculate the probability. Insufficient data.
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Cabal
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My mistake. I misread the question.
Fine, then it's the opposite. We weren't made by an AI.
Oh and btw:
"If we could create an artificial intelligence - AI1 and AI1 ​​could create an AI2 (and etc), probability that we are AI - increases​"
That is incorrect. Events that happened after an event occurred don't affect it's probability.
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Brak, provided that the God = a human, we need only calculate the probability of a human.
If A=B and B=C then A=C. Easy?
If A=B and B=C then A=C. Easy?
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That is the question! What makes us unique that we can say: "we weren't made by an AI". What is our feature?
What about - a statistical probability and statistical significance?
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Cabal
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Not knowing anything about an AI as they don't yet exist, I couldn't tell you.
It doesn't matter what you call it. Events in the future don't change the probability of something that occurred in the past.
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Whether God is human or not is immaterial. You have to have 3 sets of data:
1) data known to hold true if there was a God
2) data known to hold true if there was no God
3) data which is known true
You have to collect data for 1) and 2) so as to train your equation to estimate the probability of there being a God. Then you feed it 3)--the actual data--correlate the actual data against the data which produces a known result, and out comes your probability. The problem is, 3) is all the data we've got. If we had either 1) or 2), there would probably be no point in coming up with such a silly equation in the first place. Thus the probability cannot be calculated.
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Rightly.
I may be mistaken. I didn't mind.
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My mistake was that creation of AI is not casually (like tossing a coin). We can not say that we casually did AI. Here work other laws.
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Why we have to do it so hard? Enough for us to know the probability of favorable conditions for the appearance of human. Temperature, water, oxygen, etc.
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We need to know 2 things:
1. What is the probability of human existence ?
2. What is the probability that human shall create AI?
Then we need to impose these probabilities. That's all.
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And I want to say that this is not my belief or principled position. This is just my idle thoughts. Do not take too seriously.
1. What is the probability of human existence ?
2. What is the probability that human shall create AI?
Then we need to impose these probabilities. That's all.
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And I want to say that this is not my belief or principled position. This is just my idle thoughts. Do not take too seriously.
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