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Can an evolutionist explain these odds to me please?

I just took notes on a recording of a lecture I just heard. Try to read this entire email - it's a little long-winded, but very interesting... at least to me.

First, let's start by taking a quick look at skin... one piece of skin, the size of a postage stamp (or your thumb print), contains:

1 yard (3 feet) of blood vessels
4 yards (12 feet) of nerves
100 sweat glands
15 oil glands
25 nerve glands
3,000,000 "simple" cells

The platform for all forms of life is known as the basic building block of life that we know as - the "simple" cell. Let's take a look at just ONE of those simple cells. Don't forget, there are 3,000,000 - that's three million cells in one piece of skin the size of your thumb print.

ONE "simple" cell is made up of 239 protein molecules. ONE protein molecule is made up of 445 different amino acids. Each one of these 445 different amino acids must be placed in a specific, perfect order to form ONE protein molecule - if they are not in the EXACT order needed, the protein molecule will not work (don't forget - we need 239 protein molecules to form one cell).

How do these amino acids know how to get into that specific order? Each cell contains an "instruction booklet", or a "blueprint" that we know as DNA.

DNA contains the information that tells each amino acid how to line up in a specific, perfect order so that ONE protein molecule can be formed: of which, we need 239 protein molecules to form ONE cell: of which, a postage stamp sized piece of skin needs 3,000,000 cells to exist.

Most of us have seen pictures of the spiraling strands of DNA. Each strand contains 4 billion bits of information!! To put this in perspective: it would take a typist, who could type 6000 words per minute, 40 hours of continuous non-stop typing to enter 4 billion bits of information. Not only that, but that typist is not allowed to make ONE error - or the DNA strand would not work!

But... guess what? It gets even more difficult!! DNA speaks a different language than amino acids! It cannot communicate with the amino acids in order to tell them how to line up! Each living cell also contains RNA.

RNA is bi-lingual - it can communicate with both DNA and the amino acids. RNA makes a copy of the information contained in the DNA and then relays that to the amino acids in order to get them lined up in just the right order to form one protein molecule! So now picture if you will - another typist has to come along and type those 4 billion bits of information AND has to translate them from one language to another!! With ZERO errors!

AND... if that's not convincing enough...

do you know what the odds of ONE protein molecule SELF-organizing are?! 1 in 10 to 321st power. That's 10 followed by 320 zero's! That's the odds of just ONE protein molecule self-organizing - NOT the odds of 239 protein molecules needed to form ONE living cell.

There are not even enough fundamental particles in the entire universe that could be used to illustrate those odds! It's estimated that there are only 10 to the 134th power of fundamental particles in the entire universe.

But wait! There's more...!

The most ardent evolutionists claim that the earth is 4.5 billion years old. Which is approximately equivalent to 10 to the 18th power seconds.

In order to "self-organize" one protein molecule - do you know how many years it would take to run ALL of the possible combinations if that one molecule were to try and self organize? Let me tell you - 10 to the 234th power BILLION years. How old is the universe again? According to Evolutionists? Only a MERE 4.5 billion years. Don't forget - we're not talking about organizing the 239 protein molecules to form the cell yet - we're talking about the 449 amino acids needed in the right order to form one protein molecule!!

So... what do all these numbers mean?! If a different combination was run once per/second, the earth isn't even old enough to run all of the combinations required to form ONE protein molecule!!!... of which we need 239 to form ONE LIVING "SIMPLE" CELL!!! The odds of ONE living simple cell SELF-organizing are 1 in 10 to the 137,915th power... yeah, you read that right! That's a 10 followed by 137,914 zero's.

Give me a break! How can ANYONE feel good about justifying those kinds of odds when considering the creation of this complicated universe we live in?! Remember those 3 MILLION cells in just one postage stamp sized piece of skin?!

How can anyone, in their right mind, even consider the "big bang" theory - OR, "Yeah, really - we're all here by "just the right circumstances" as chance would have it." So the next time someone asks me if I believe in creation - I'm gonna tell them it's a lot easier to believe than the outside chance of all of the universe being exploded into one living cell, of which we all evolved!!! I like the odds of there being a supreme being much better!

Not only do I believe God created the entire universe in six days, like He said... I believe He could've done it in less than 6 seconds if He wanted to!! So don't look at me like I'M the crazy one for believing in God - maybe you should be chuckling at those who try to defend evolution?
 

seebs

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I think you're misunderstanding the odds. It's not as if there's a whole lot of molecules consisting of thousands of amino acids, which are *ALMOST* DNA, but not quite, and we have to shuffle through them looking for DNA.

What are the chances that, if you roll a dozen dice, they'll come up 1-2-3-4-5-6-1-2-3-4-5-6?

Now, let's say you roll the dice, and if the first die is a 1, you keep it, and if the die after it is one higher, you keep it, and so on... How long will it take that way?

Selection makes a GIGANTIC difference in the alleged "odds". I don't see it as particularly out of the realm of possibility that things would have come out the way they did.

Keep in mind also that copying DNA is prone to certain specific kinds of errors, which may make it much easier to make longer DNA molecules. In particular, excess duplications are not unheard of, and viruses sometimes end up adding genetic material to something else.
 
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Late_Cretaceous

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A protein molecule, nomatter how complex is may appear to our limited minds is really based on very simple chemical bonding rules. The same rules that bind 2 hyrogen atoms to make a hydrogen molecule out in intergalactic space somewhere are obeying the same principles as a convoluted and dynamic hemoglobin molecule as it changes shape when bonding to oxygen. Life itself, including all our minds imaginations asperations and emotions, is really just very complex chemistry - all based on the simple fact that electrons get lonely and like to be in pairs, but think three is a crowd. It is the limitation of the human mind that says "whoa this is way too complex to exist without intelligent input".

SInce the even most complicated biochemical pathways occur without violating a simple set of chemical groundrules, why is it so hard to see that it could occur naturally?
 
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Pete Harcoff

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Originally posted by Glen
do you know what the odds of ONE protein molecule SELF-organizing are?! 1 in 10 to 321st power.

Where did this number come from?

The rest of it contains the usual probability mumbo-jumbo (i.e. life has to try every single "combination" before it gets it right; ignores the fact that life occurs in parallel, not series; assumes that life has a pre-defined goal that it must reach -- hence, trying every "combination")

I've yet to see any convincing "odds" arguments against life forming on our planet.

On a similiar note, I remember seeing a bit on talk.origins that life could have evolved into cyanobacteria ("blue-green algae") in only 10 million years (Reference: How long did it take for life to begin and evolve to Cyanobacteria?, A. Lazcano & S.L. Miller, Journal of Molecular Evolution 39(6): 546-554, December 1994)

Has anyone read that article? I'm curious as to what it has to say. *looking in Rufus's direction*
 
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Hector Medina

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Glen,

You are abosolutly right(on the begining of the post)!

Don't let any evolutionists brain wash you.

Everything is FAR too complicated to evolve and there is 0% proof that it did evolve
Even some athiests admit that that life is too complicated to evolve.

To help out here are good creation links:

www.drdino.com

www.chick.com

www.awnsersingenesis.com



In Christ,

-Hector
 
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Pete Harcoff

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Morat

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  Anyone using Chick as a reference really does scrape the bottom of the barrel....

   The statistics used in the first post hurt me. Specifically, they hurt me in the portion of my brain where my knowledge of math is kept. (Hint: It's because they're so badly misapplied).

 
 
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Nathan Poe

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Originally posted by Morat
  Anyone using Chick as a reference really does scrape the bottom of the barrel.... 

 

Nope. Dr. Dino is scraping the bottom of the barrel. By the time you get to Jack T. Chick, the barrel is empty and you've started to dig.

Originally posted by Hector Medina

Don't let any evolutionists brain wash you.

Everything is FAR too complicated to evolve and there is 0% proof that it did evolve
Even some athiests admit that that life is too complicated to evolve.


Everything? So are we to understand that anything we can't comprehend at this moment must be created? Or are we limited to your knowledge? (Argument from ignorance.)

"Men think epilepsy divine, merely because they do not understand it. But if they called everything divine which they do not understand, why, there would be no end of divine things." --Hippocrates.
 
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jon1101

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I really wish people would stop referencing Chick and Hovind, or at least restrain from linking to both of their sites in one post (keep the excrement spread out).

For goodness' sake, Chick says that rock music CDs are possessed by demons* and that they cast spells on the listener by using old druidic drum beats (in his comic 'spellbound').

Hovind? He's been over discussed as it is.

-jon

*Or at least the masters are. I don't recall him explicitly saying that the demons come along when the CDs are copied. I don't know if that's demonologically valid ;)
 
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seebs

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Originally posted by Live!
How are they badly misapplied? There's no way human life could have just popped into existance by chance, without a Creator. That's impossible.

Well, why do you think it's impossible, apart from those alleged statistics?

Also, when you ask what's wrong with them, are you seriously interested in an explanation, or is that a rhetorical question?

If you'd like, I'd be happy to take some statistics and analyze them for you, but it's enough work that I'm not doing it unless I hear that people really want to see how it's done.
 
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fragmentsofdreams

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Originally posted by Nathan Poe
Nope. Dr. Dino is scraping the bottom of the barrel. By the time you get to Jack T. Chick, the barrel is empty and you've started to dig.



Everything? So are we to understand that anything we can't comprehend at this moment must be created? Or are we limited to your knowledge? (Argument from ignorance.)

"Men think epilepsy divine, merely because they do not understand it. But if they called everything divine which they do not understand, why, there would be no end of divine things." --Hippocrates.

I didn't realize that Hippocrates was that advanced.
 
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Glen: ...
1 yard (3 feet) of blood vessels
4 yards (12 feet) of nerves
100 sweat glands
15 oil glands
25 nerve glands
3,000,000 "simple" cells
[and all the complexity of a single cell...]

DNAunion: Agreed - life is extremely complex. But even Richard Dawkins admits this.

 

What you have are several different things -- blood vessels, nerves, etc. -- that come together to form "skin".  Don't look for how they could have all arisen together, look for the origin of each one individually.

Take blook vessels.  Dawkins would probably point out that other ("simpler") mammals (such as mice and rabbits) also have blood vessels, as do even "simpler" non-mammals (a grasshopper has blood vessels even though it has an open circulatory system). Dawkins would probably point out that you shouldn't look for an origin of blood vessels in humans - find the simplest living thing that possesses them, then see if there might be a gradual evolutionary pathway that could lead from that organism's kind to ours.

Same goes for nerves - even flatworms have a rudimentary nervous system, and they are far less complex than we are. The question isn't "How could the amazing human nervous have arisen from scratch?", but more like, "How could the human nervous system have evolved from something simpler, such as that of a flatworm?"

And cells - we should look at the simplest ones (prokaryotic cells) not ones as complex as our own (those of multicellular eukaryotes). If you have a prokaryotic cell, evolving it into a eukarotic cell is "not all that hard". 
 
Same goes for those complex, contemporary proteins.  Could they have evolved from simpler proteins?   If you say know, how can you demonstrate that?

Changing the frame of reference here a bit...  I looked at mitosis (cellular division as it occurs in the somatic cells of eukaryotes) a while back.  Took all my college biology texts (one on genetics, two on molecular cell biology, one on general biology, etc.) that had more than a paragraph on mitosis and studied them.  They all presented the same general picture, and the "universal" consensus form of mitosis was very complex.  You need this to happen, but it can't happen unless this other thing happens, which relies on this occurring first, which ...  I wondered how something as complex and intricate as mitosis could have possibly evolved.  So I went to Infidels and asked.  They (in particular someone named Niiicholas) pointed out that there are -- contrary to what one is led to believe from undergraduate texts -- many variations on mitosis.  For example, in some forms...the nuclear envelope remains intact throughout; the spindle fibers form within the nucleus; centrioles are not present (this last fact can be found in the general texts); etc.  What we see is something much akin to Darwin's explanation for the evolution of the eye.  Look out there in nature and you will find variations on the basic theme, and those variations are of differeing complexity and can be -- at least in one's mind -- linked into a fairly continuous series of intermediates.
 
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