Beto O'Rourke

[mark46]

The Democrats need to win Senate seats. If Beto is so popular and such a good campaigner, why isn't he running for the Senate in 2020?

Ditto for Stacey Abrams in Georgia.

 

[USincognito]

Beto O'Rourke (@BetoORourke) | Twitter

 

[JacobKStarkey]

Abrams may. Beto is trying to get on the ticket in the VP slot.

 

[SimplyMe]

The reason I suspect Beto isn't trying for the Senate in 2020 is that it will be a tough election for a Democrat to win. From what I recall seeing, all things being equal, in a Texas statewide race, Republicans have at least an 8% advantage. That is an almost impossible deficit to overcome.

Beto thought he had a shot against Sen. Cruz because Cruz is not well liked as a Senator -- his "favorability" in Texas tends to be negative. When it comes to Sen. Cornyn, he has a much better approval rating and so will likely be almost impossible to beat in Texas.

 

[mark46]

So, Beto isn't good enough to give him a reasonable chance to make up 8% in 21 months, with lots of money from everywhere. If that is the case, he certainly shouldn't be considered as a candidate for president. I say this as a liberal Democrat. The "best use" of Beto is to attempt to win a Senate seat. There are lots of presidential candidates with at least as a good a chance of winning nationally than a white man from Texas who can't win a Senate seat in his own state.

The reason I suspect Beto isn't trying for the Senate in 2020 is that it will be a tough election for a Democrat to win. From what I recall seeing, all things being equal, in a Texas statewide race, Republicans have at least an 8% advantage. That is an almost impossible deficit to overcome.

Beto thought he had a shot against Sen. Cruz because Cruz is not well liked as a Senator -- his "favorability" in Texas tends to be negative. When it comes to Sen. Cornyn, he has a much better approval rating and so will likely be almost impossible to beat in Texas.

 

[LoAmmi]

So, Beto isn't good enough to give him a reasonable chance to make up 8% in 21 months, with lots of money from everywhere. If that is the case, he certainly shouldn't be considered as a candidate for president. I say this as a liberal Democrat. The "best use" of Beto is to attempt to win a Senate seat. There are lots of presidential candidates with at least as a good a chance of winning nationally than a white man from Texas who can't win a Senate seat in his own state.

Is our benchmark on who would be a good Democratic candidate if they can win Texas? The last one to win that state was Carter and I suspect that has a lot to do with how absolutely unpopular Ford was in the country.

 

[JacobKStarkey]

Beto wants to be VP on the ticket. He is not following what Mark46 wants.

 

[Albion]

So, Beto isn't good enough to give him a reasonable chance to make up 8% in 21 months, with lots of money from everywhere. If that is the case, he certainly shouldn't be considered as a candidate for president. I say this as a liberal Democrat. The "best use" of Beto is to attempt to win a Senate seat. There are lots of presidential candidates with at least as a good a chance of winning nationally than a white man from Texas who can't win a Senate seat in his own state.

That's probably correct to say and a good reason why the party wont rally around him for VP if he thinks he has a shot at the position. My impression is also that there are a lot of contenders who are more effective campaigners than Beto.

 

[mark46]

Beto wants to be VP on the ticket. He is not following what Mark46 wants.

Let him want to be VP. He would be of ZERO value to any Democratic ticket.

 

[Albion]

But they say he looks Kennedy-esque.

 

[mark46]

But they say he looks Kennedy-esque.

 

[USincognito]

So, Beto isn't good enough to give him a reasonable chance to make up 8% in 21 months, with lots of money from everywhere. If that is the case, he certainly shouldn't be considered as a candidate for president. I say this as a liberal Democrat. The "best use" of Beto is to attempt to win a Senate seat. There are lots of presidential candidates with at least as a good a chance of winning nationally than a white man from Texas who can't win a Senate seat in his own state.

As a liberal Democrat you should know that while metropolitan and south Texas are trending purple, it still is a very red and tribalist state. As simply me astutely pointed out Beto had a chance because Cruz is unpopular among Republicans though he's still "their guy".

Cornyn is very popular among Republicans and a large number of right leaning Independents. There's no way the Democratic candidate is going to beat him.

 

[JacobKStarkey]

Beto cannot beat Cornyn in 2020, maybe in 2026.

 

[JacobKStarkey]

Let him want to be VP. He would be of ZERO value to any Democratic ticket.

That is silly talk if you believe that.

 

[mark46]

Beto cannot beat Cornyn in 2020, maybe in 2026.

So, I would think that Beto should work really hard on his campaign war chest and run in 2024 or 2026.

 

[mark46]

I've analyzed Democratic politics for over 60 years. My conclusion may be many things, but I don't that it is silly. My belief is that Beto on the ticket as VP would not add to the likelihood of winning, compared to other candidates available at the time. And yes, the number may not be zero, but I do believe that it is close.

That is silly talk if you believe that.

 

[JacobKStarkey]

Your analysis skews because of your political beliefs. Beto would offer a tremendous benefit if VP'ing for a more moderate Dem of stature.

 

[Albion]

So would a dozen other Democrats with better resumes than Beto.

 

[mark46]

I'm confused. Why do you think that 60 years of being a Humphrey/Bill Clinton liberal Democrat makes my analysis skewed against Beto?

Your analysis skews because of your political beliefs. Beto would offer a tremendous benefit if VP'ing for a more moderate Dem of stature.

 

[Speedwell]

I'm confused. Why do you think that 60 years of being a Humphrey/Bill Clinton liberal Democrat makes my analysis skewed against Beto?

I'm not a Humphrey/Clinton Liberal Democrat and I agree with you. I like the man, but his present notoriety is not enough.