"Why would that make my line of reasoning unlikely?"
I don't really need to explain this to you, do I? You understand why your argument fails... the first premise is wrong for at least two reasons...maybe more if I gave it some real thought. If your first premise is false, and the rest of your argument rests upon that premise, then the entire argument is wrong. Remember your first premise was this...
1. Everything that begins to exist has a cause.
Ah, no, you're mistaken. You see, the Kalam Cosmological Argument is based off of probabilities, that's all. All that it says is that it's reasonably certain that God exists. The first premise doesn't fail, as I'll get to here in a second.
Well...now you know that not everything that begins to exist has a cause. There are at least some things which begin to exist without any discernable cause. To account for this new information, we could change your first premise to something like this...
1. Most things that begin to exist have a cause.
Or even...
1. Nearly everything that begins to exist has a cause.
If we changed your first premise to one of these so that we can call it true, does the rest of the argument hold up? Of course not... because now the first premise allows for the universe to be one of those very few things that began to exist without a cause. You would need to prove that the universe is one of those things that begins to exist and has a cause... but your argument doesn't do that.
Actually, in this case the burden of proof would be on you since the overwhelming majority of things that begin to exist
do have a cause. You would have demonstrated one thing that began to exist that didn't have a cause (assuming you're right about your interpretation of virtual particles). Therefore, the overwhelming probability would be on my side and it wouldn't really harm the argument in the slightest.
To illustrate the logical flaw in your first premise (because I'm not sure you understood it when I explained that the universe is a set and the "rules of its members don't necessarily apply to it)
I understood, I'm just not sure I agree with you.
take a look at this statement you made a few pages back...
"Your understanding of how things work in this universe (sequences of thoughts and so on) doesn't necessarily apply beyond this universe!"
Your first premise is based upon the way things appear to work inside the universe. Well, the universe is not inside itself, is it? So the rules that appear to govern the way things work inside the universe don't necessarily apply to the universe itself.
I would assume that the universe is a part of itself. The things inside of the universe are both separate things (like stars, and so on) and also a part of the universe. The universe means all that there is - everything we can grasp with the five senses.
"
Did the universe begin to exist, or not? Did time have a beginning?"
Those are both good questions... and I don't know the answer to either of them. There was quite a bit of noise this year about some evidence that perhaps the universe has always existed in some form or another. I don't think anyone can say that theory is proven, but it certainly appears to be a genuine possibility. Maybe you heard about this? If not, I'll be happy to provide a link or two.
Time must have begun to exist since you can't have an infinite series of past events. If you did, you would have never arrived at the present event. Since the universe is subject to time, then the universe began to exist.
"The idea of being outside of time isn't meaningless at all. Perhaps we can't understand it..."
What exactly do you think the term "meaningless" means? When I asked you to tell me what it means to be outside of time... you told me you don't know what it means. How can you know then that something can exist "outside of time"? You don't even know what it means.
I meant it's not meaningless as an
explanation of something. Your following example fails because you experienced a "grumkin" (as you put it). No-one can experience what it's like to be outside of time, so we don't know what it's like. However, saying that God is outside of time, since he created it, isn't a meaningless explanation at all - it makes perfect sense. God isn't subject to time and is therefore outside of it.