mzungu
INVICTUS
Spoken like a true scholar!Just as an update on the neutrino situation, I saw a talk today by one of the members of the collaboration. It was fairly interesting. My basic impression after walking away from the talk is:
1. I'm more convinced than ever that supernova 1987A observations make this result exceedingly unlikely. With SN1987A, the extremely long baseline (about 160,000 light years) means that measurement errors or errors in modeling the supernova simply aren't very important for the final result, which is that the difference in neutrino speed compared to the speed of light cannot be more than about one one thousandth of the observed speed discrepancy by the OPERA collaboration. It's going to be obscenely difficult, if not impossible, to come up with a theory that explains both observations (this was more from conversations before and after the talk than the talk itself, by the way).
2. The OPERA collaboration detected no difference in the arrival time at different energies. This, to me, was a giant red flag: in order to explain both the OPERA and the SN1987A observations, you're going to need the speed to depend upon energy. And yet it didn't appear to.
3. This measurement was an extremely sensitive and difficult measurement to make. It required a series of very accurate determination of time and position. And they did attempt to correct for the various errors by using a level of redundancy on these measurements. Still, if, for example, the delay induced by the electronics at the CERN laboratory were underestimated slightly, or the delay induced by the electronics at Gran Sasso was overestimated, that could explain the discrepancy as well.
4. There may have been some irregularities in the data reduction. As stated above, it's a really really sensitive measurement. And some people thought that the statistical analysis performed to extract the delays may have been a bit dodgy.
5. Approximately half of the OPERA collaboration declined to sign the paper. This may indicate some doubt within the OPERA collaboration that sufficient rigor was employed in this result, and is overall a pretty damning indictment of the results. There may be a mundane explanation for the fact that they didn't sign, but it really is not a good indication.
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