Paul has hope, but not presumption
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Every works related verse in the NT implies that works is a product of faith and if you don't bear good fruit through works it is indicitive that you don't have faith. So there are constant reminders to check yourself.
The Elect may sin but will not permantently fall away as they are predestined and elected by God.
You seem to think that the bible teaches that men are somehow deserving of a "fair shake". God is the author of life. He is the potter we are the clay. We are sinners and he saves who he will by His mercy. If he decided to save absolutely nobody that would be a good choice because it would be just. He saves simply because he wants to.
Note these passages about the soverignty of God:
Romans 9:13-24
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13] As it is written, "Jacob I loved, but Esau I hated."
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14] What shall we say then? Is there injustice on God's part? By no means!
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15] For he says to Moses, "I will have mercy on whom I have mercy, and I will have compassion on whom I have compassion."
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16] So it depends not upon man's will or exertion, but upon God's mercy.
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17] For the scripture says to Pharaoh, "I have raised you up for the very purpose of showing my power in you, so that my name may be proclaimed in all the earth."
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18] So then he has mercy upon whomever he wills, and he hardens the heart of whomever he wills.
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19] You will say to me then, "Why does he still find fault? For who can resist his will?"
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20] But who are you, a man, to answer back to God? Will what is molded say to its molder, "Why have you made me thus?"
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21] Has the potter no right over the clay, to make out of the same lump one vessel for beauty and another for menial use?
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22] What if God, desiring to show his wrath and to make known his power, has endured with much patience the vessels of wrath made for destruction,
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23] in order to make known the riches of his glory for the vessels of mercy, which he has prepared beforehand for glory,
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24] even us whom he has called, not from the Jews only but also from the Gentiles?
Notice here that some men are destined to disobey:
1 Peter 2:8
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8] and "A stone that will make men stumble,
a rock that will make them fall";
for they stumble because they disobey the word, as they were destined to do.
However, the Christian Elect is a chosen people a royal priesthood, God's own people:
1 Peter 2:9-10
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9] But you are a chosen race, a royal priesthood, a holy nation, God's own people, that you may declare the wonderful deeds of him who called you out of darkness into his marvelous light.
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10] Once you were no people but now you are God's people; once you had not received mercy but now you have received mercy.