Perhaps our differences are semantic in nature.
Perhaps.
As you say, we have pushed total catastrophe off 50 years. More focus should push catastrophe out even further. Having so many countries having carbon-free goals is a HUGE plus. It may take longer for each country than their goals, but almost all countries are showing improvements.
Are they? I haven't seen any nation that has actually managed to reduce their total carbon footprint. If there's one or two I'd be surprised.
What I have seen is "progress" being described as "we only polluted this much....and although it's more than we polluted over the last decade....it's less than we would have polluted if we didn't make those changes".
If someone is describing that as progress, you need to keep in mind they aren't able to accurately assess all the current, sometimes completely new problems of the current decade.
They are lying to you.
That's simply not progress. Progress is a significant decrease in total carbon footprints worldwide....and the only thing that solves the problem (and prevents catastrophe entirely) is a total end of fossil fuels entirely. I'm not going to applaud a continued increase in the carbon footprint just because it's "less" than the increase we estimate would have happened otherwise.
I can't be optimistic because I've looked really hard at the basics of the problem.
The changes happening right now are caused by pollution from decades ago. It's a delayed effect. The pollution today will be felt in coming decades. Delayed effects.
Catastrophe (think widespread famine and violence killing billions) comes at "best estimate" 2 degrees Celsius increase. To avoid this....we would have to stop our total worldwide carbon footprint (every single nation) entirely....tomorrow. Our best estimate is that if we did this (and we won't, because we can't) we only see an increase of 1-1.5 degrees Celsius.
In practical terms it means that all the changes that you're optimistic about are too little too late, in addition to the ways you realize they simply aren't enough.
We aren't stopping our total carbon footprint tomorrow. We aren't even going to decrease it 10 years from now. It's done.
If you want to delay catastrophe? You need to reconsider how it will happen...because it will happen. End democracy. Establish an authoritarian military state. They have a much better track record at suppressing violence and forcing large groups to suffer through difficulty. I don't think you have the stomach to support that sort of thing. I don't know how to choose a considerate and gentle authoritarian who is also willing to do whatever it takes to hold this society together. Those are contradictory personality traits.
You would do better to look at it this way....our way of living, our society, the entire world has terminal pancreatic cancer. It's dying. Whatever comes through the other side of the changes that will happen will be wildly different.
Now....how do you want to spend the remaining time? We can desperately attempt to fix the dying patient, keep it on life support. In this analogy the painful chemo, days of sickness, experimental treatments, may result in some extra time....but don't kid yourself into thinking it will be pleasant. It's going to be very rough. Lots of suffering, lots of poverty, famine, and violence.
Option two is getting your affairs in order. Want to leave whoever is left with the best of possible outcomes? See above. Stop all the debating about policy, and rights, and freedom and get everyone together for a big fight. It's our best chance of winning the fight that's coming. No more sympathy for victims, and lots of praise for ruthlessness. Get the largest group possible in board, eliminate or completely suppress all others. It's ugly but that's an option.
The last option? Enjoy the time we have left. Don't spend your time in hospital waiting rooms....spend it on a beach in Aruba. It appears that is what most of our world leaders have decided. I'm not complaining. It's mostly because of Democracy. If they go with either of the other two options....they won't win elections. We aren't changing anything significantly enough to rock the boat before it hits the iceberg. We don't want to, frankly, we can't.
I don't know if you understand that and I don't want to bother going to grear details to explain it. If you don't understand that a brief partial business lockdown, like we had in 2020, had a devastating effect on the economy and resulted in widespread social upheaval, homelessness, job loss, etc....then you won't understand why a drastic permanent change in these interrelated systems will be much much worse.
Politicians in France tried a minor price increase on gasoline to slow use and fund green tech. Minor. The resulting riots, started by people who had long work commutes, threatened the removal from office of those politicians....and they reversed the increase.
Truckers in Canada engaged in a completely peaceful and nonviolent protest....against a vaccine mandate that amounted to a loss of bodily autonomy. The result? The government completely suspended their most basic right...a fundamental right...the right to own property. Their bank accounts were frozen. They were forced from their trucks. People were forced from helping them. They had to quit protesting or starve. Immediate suspension of rights.
You think they're going to make widespread systemic changes to the economy? No. Why? Why would they ever commit economic suicide? It only will work if every nation does it....it only works if every nation agrees on both the problem and solution. Something that never happens.
I honestly don't care what anyone chooses. I understand all the options and why some seem more attractive than others. I get it. You want to feel good about yourself and blame others? Fine. Just don't complain when others point out your hypocrisy. Do you support forced social cohesion? Ok. Just don't complain if it turns out they don't have your best interests in mind. Your best interests and those of the group aren't the same. Want to continue on as normal? Enjoy the remaining days? Ok. Just don't complain when your streets are flooded, houses burn down from wildfires, and your beachfront property is swept away by hurricanes. We aren't rebuilding it for you. We aren't going to save you.
