080808 = War

[joebudda]

Everyone knows money is finite, and there are bigger and better fish to fry than Georgia.

If you can avoid social upheaval and the requisite use of police you do so.

The police are there when the action is unavoidable and the upheaval is inevitable.

I believe it is less about the location and more about the players involved.

And being on the other side of the line drawn with Russia, does not bode well for anyone.

And money is a concept in the form of paper in the United States today. Paper can be printed and numbers can be entered into a computer without much or any resources.

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

If we (America) are smart, we'll stay out of this one.

Georgia is in Russia's historical sphere of influence. Has been for centuries, was so even under the Czar and before him. I think the push to expand NATO as far east as Georgia was ill-advised. These are different people, different ethnic groups, with a different historical background.

I can see things from Russia's point of view on this one. NATO was founded to contain Russia (well, the Soviet Union, anyway) and here America was seeking to expand it to Russia's western doorstep. It was one thing to bring Poland into NATO, as that nation was historically part of Europe and brought into the Soviet sphere by force. Poland being part of a West-oriented alliance was a reversion to historical norms. Not so Georgia.

 

[joebudda]

July 15, 2008, US army exercises begin in Georgia

In Georgia itself, a total of around 1,650 soldiers form the US, Georgia and several other East European countries, have begun exercises on the formerly Russian-controlled Vaziani base, the Georgian defence ministry said.

It looks as if they might have been preparing for something like this.

 

[ArnautDaniel]

July 15, 2008, US army exercises begin in Georgia


It looks as if they might have been preparing for something like this.

That isn't really enough to do much fighting.

It looks more like the typical military exercise for sending a message to somebody that one is not indifferent to the area.

 

[joebudda]

That isn't really enough to do much fighting.

It looks more like the typical military exercise for sending a message to somebody that one is not indifferent to the area.

I don't know what its intended "meaning" is. I do know that it does mean we already have boots on the ground there.

 

[ArnautDaniel]

I don't know what its intended "meaning" is. I do know that it does mean we already have boots on the ground there.

You understand that when groups of nations conduct "military exercises" near the border of, or off the coast of another nation, the point is to send a message to that other nation, and not "play war"?

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

I don't know what its intended "meaning" is. I do know that it does mean we already have boots on the ground there.

I don't think we're going to get involved militarily. This is a very focused conflict (thank God). Russia is concerned about its citizens in South Ossetia. Georgia is at least as much an instigator in this as Russia, having determined to retake South Ossetia by force, knowing that this would antagonize its very large, powerful neighbor.

The smart thing for Georgia to have done would have been to call for an internationally-supervised referendum on the part of South Ossetians as to whether they want to be a part of Russia or Georgia. That way, if most people in that region do indeed want to be part of Georgia, Georgia could have gotten support from the international community and legitimized its possession of South Ossetia. If, on the other hand, the majority there wanted to be part of Russia, then let that territory go and no one would have had to die.

In short, there were peaceful, lawful ways this could have been handled, and Georgia opted for force. Not very smart. If I have a conflict with Mike Tyson and I have a choice of resolving it via a game of Monopoly or arm-wrestling, I'm not going to choose arm-wrestling.

 

[ArnautDaniel]

I don't think we're going to get involved militarily. This is a very focused conflict (thank God). Russia is concerned about its citizens in South Ossetia. Georgia is at least as much an instigator in this as Russia, having determined to retake South Ossetia by force, knowing that this would antagonize its very large, powerful neighbor.

The smart thing for Georgia to have done would have been to call for an internationally-supervised referendum on the part of South Ossetians as to whether they want to be a part of Russia or Georgia. That way, if most people in that region do indeed want to be part of Georgia, Georgia could have gotten support from the international community and legitimized its possession of South Ossetia. If, on the other hand, the majority there wanted to be part of Russia, then let that territory go and no one would have had to die.

In short, there were peaceful, lawful ways this could have been handled, and Georgia opted for force. Not very smart. If I have a conflict with Mike Tyson and I have a choice of resolving it via a game of Monopoly or arm-wrestling, I'm not going to choose arm-wrestling.

It is possible the Georgian leadership had delusions about the amount of support they'd get from the West.

They could think they bought support by having the 3rd largest force in Iraq (even though it was a really small force by most standards).

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

It is possible the Georgian leadership had delusions about the amount of support they'd get from the West.

Possibly. If they thought that America would go to war on their behalf over a tiny territory that historically has been aligned with Russia anyway, I've got a bridge to sell them.

But hopefully this makes clear the folly of further expansion of NATO eastward. Do we really want to be obligated by treaty to involve ourselves in this kinds of petty turf wars that really aren't our business and don't threaten our interests anyway?

 

[joebudda]

I don't think we're going to get involved militarily. This is a very focused conflict (thank God). Russia is concerned about its citizens in South Ossetia. Georgia is at least as much an instigator in this as Russia, having determined to retake South Ossetia by force, knowing that this would antagonize its very large, powerful neighbor.

The smart thing for Georgia to have done would have been to call for an internationally-supervised referendum on the part of South Ossetians as to whether they want to be a part of Russia or Georgia. That way, if most people in that region do indeed want to be part of Georgia, Georgia could have gotten support from the international community and legitimized its possession of South Ossetia. If, on the other hand, the majority there wanted to be part of Russia, then let that territory go and no one would have had to die.

In short, there were peaceful, lawful ways this could have been handled, and Georgia opted for force. Not very smart. If I have a conflict with Mike Tyson and I have a choice of resolving it via a game of Monopoly or arm-wrestling, I'm not going to choose arm-wrestling.

I don't know.
The United States has already said that they support Georgia in this.

And it looks like the United States is sending in more troops. Do you think it is a bluff? And what if the bluff is called? Will the United States just bow out?

I hope so, but I am wary.

 

[joebudda]

You understand that when groups of nations conduct "military exercises" near the border of, or off the coast of another nation, the point is to send a message to that other nation, and not "play war"?

And what message would that be if not "war"?

 

[ArnautDaniel]

Possibly. If they thought that America would go to war on their behalf over a tiny territory that historically has been aligned with Russia anyway, I've got a bridge to sell them.

But hopefully this makes clear the folly of further expansion of NATO eastward. Do we really want to be obligated by treaty to involve ourselves in this kinds of petty turf wars that really aren't our business and don't threaten our interests anyway?

Well that raises the question "What is the point of NATO?"

NATO has to some extent become an alliance in search of a mission.

 

[ArnautDaniel]

And what message would that be if not "war"?

Yeah, the message is usually "we are prepared to fight for X".

Of course geopolitics is like poker and messages can be serious and they can be bluffs.

Either way, I doubt the troops in Georgia were put there with the intent to fight Russia. They were only put there with the intent of implying to Russia that we would fight them.

They could also have been put there with the simple aim of creating closer relations with Georgia.

I'm betting that Russia has called the US's bluff, and the troops will either quietly leave or sit in their base on some pretext.

...

Of course the message may well be "You can have South Ossetia, but don't try to grab all of Georgia".

 

[xcrunner71]

It's all going down as God said it would. May God have mercy on our souls.

 

[Gremlins]

It's all going down as God said it would. May God have mercy on our souls.

:/

God said Russia would invade Georgia in 2008?

Did I, like, miss a book or something?

 

[joebudda]

It's all going down as God said it would. May God have mercy on our souls.

At least I will be safe, I have a magic penny, and I don't have a soul.

 

[ArnautDaniel]

:/

God said Russia would invade Georgia in 2008?

Did I, like, miss a book or something?

It is in the Epistle to the Tinfoil-Hatted-Ones.

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

Of course the message may well be "You can have South Ossetia, but don't try to grab all of Georgia".

I'd go with that response. I can't believe that we would go to war over a small province that has a Russian majority anyway, but the notion that we would send a signal to Russia to "stick with what you came for" and not get greedy is more reasonable.

I also hope our diplomats in Georgia are chastising them for escalating this conflict. Georgia is far from blameless here. In fact, they almost seem like a schoolyard punk who picks a fight with someone much larger than themselves, and then runs crying to the principal's office wanting intervention and complaining that they are being bullied.

To adapt that old Jim Croce tune, you don't tug on Superman's cape, you don't spit into the wind, and you don't mess around with Russia.

 

[xcrunner71]

:/

God said Russia would invade Georgia in 2008?

Did I, like, miss a book or something?

Not a book, but a verse.

 

[ArnautDaniel]

Not a book, but a verse.

You know, it is well within your powers to provide for us the verse in question.