080808 = War

[ArnautDaniel]

My prophecy:

[thundering voice of God or James Earl Jones]

We're going to have some cold weather this January!

Well this makes God uncomfortably reminiscent of Darth Vader.

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

Well this makes God uncomfortably reminiscent of Darth Vader.

I find your lack of faith disturbing...

 

[marshlewis]

Its interesting the parralel between the break away region of serbia and the breakaway region of georgia. Will the west accept the precident of its own making?

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

I don't think this conflict is going to go much further.

There are now rumblings in Ukraine about joining this conflict on the side of Georgia. We should remember that, after the breakup of the Soviet Union, far eastern Europe/southwest Asia are littered with states that were once part of the USSR. These states have had an uneasy peace with Russia, but are still wary of being gobbled up again by Russia. Some of these states are Muslim.

So long as Russia confines its takeover to South Ossetia, these other countries are liable to stay out of it. However, if Russia gets greedy and tries to occupy Georgia itself, these states like Ukraine and Belarus and Azerbaijan and Tajikistan might figure that what happened to Georgia could happen to them, and best to send a message to Russia to "keep yer stinkin' paws off." Together these states could pose a challenge to Russia. If it becomes a Russia vs. Islam conflict, other entities could step in as well.

 

[joebudda]

According to The Moscow Times the Conflict is Escalating.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/600/42/369683.htm

 

[ACougar]

I wonder what we promised Georgia, to get them to provide so much suport?

It seems that Georgia threw the first punch.

And they have now withdrew from Iraq where they were the third largest force along with the United States and Britain.

Which leads to the question on where the United States and Britain are going to stand on this? Will they stay out of it or will they support Georgia?

This might get really messy.

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

A lot depends on how well Georgia's troops are trained to wage guerrilla warfare. Given the imbalance in numbers and equipment, they might not be able to repel a full-fledged Russian invasion, but given the terrain they could make the cost to the Kremlin of holding into Georgia quite high.

Then there's the question of how other ex-Soviet states perceive Russia's actions. Ukraine seems to be rather nervous, and the other ex-Soviet states have to wonder if what happened to Georgia could happen to them.

 

[Ryal Kane]

Forgive my ignorance of specifics but isn't this similar to how World War One started?

 

[ACougar]

There are plenty of parallels. However, I suspect this is positioning in advance of the big energy wars, not the beginning of the actual energy wars. Then again some believe that Iraq was a bold first move by the US in the struggle to secure energy resources.

Forgive my ignorance of specifics but isn't this similar to how World War One started?

 

[RealDealNeverstop]

I wonder what we promised Georgia, to get them to provide so much suport?

Bush has already ordered support so we are using our permanent bases in iraq to stretch ops out further. Now just wait for the Bush admin to declare Russia fired on one of our planes delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia.

This is a messy conflict that stretches back years. Georgia didn't throw the first punch because a decade ago S. Ossetia broke from Georgian rule but it is still a Province inside Georgian borders so Russia is occupying sovereign territory, even if the residents are pro-russian.

The Bush admin's quick response absent UN authorization is very telling and this could very easily be the spark that sets off several other conflicts, especially if we interfere.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080813/twl-uk-georgia-ossetia-bush-bd5ae06.html

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

Bush has already ordered support so we are using our permanent bases in iraq to stretch ops out further. Now just wait for the Bush admin to declare Russia fired on one of our planes delivering humanitarian aid to Georgia.

This is a messy conflict that stretches back years. Georgia didn't throw the first punch because a decade ago S. Ossetia broke from Georgian rule but it is still a Province inside Georgian borders so Russia is occupying sovereign territory, even if the residents are pro-russian.

The Bush admin's quick response absent UN authorization is very telling and this could very easily be the spark that sets off several other conflicts, especially if we interfere.
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/rtrs/20080813/twl-uk-georgia-ossetia-bush-bd5ae06.html

The UN isn't going to authorize anything, because Russia has veto power.

South Ossetia should never have been made a part of Georgia in the first place. It's just lines drawn on a map, and, as was done by the British Empire in Iraq long ago, those lines don't reflect the reality on the ground.

I agree the Russian response has been excessive, but then again, Georgia had to realize it was provoking that 800-pound gorilla when it blasted and charged into South Ossetia like a bull in a china shop. What we need now is Russia out of Georgia, and for Georgia to pledge not to station troops in South Ossetia. That region should be administered by international peacekeepers until a plebiscite can be held to allow the citizens there to choose whether they want to be part of Russia, part of Georgia, or independent.

And while that's going on, the events of the Georgian attack on South Ossetia and the Russian response need to be independently investigated, because both sides may have committed war crimes.

 

[RealDealNeverstop]

The UN isn't going to authorize anything, because Russia has veto power.

South Ossetia should never have been made a part of Georgia in the first place. It's just lines drawn on a map, and, as was done by the British Empire in Iraq long ago, those lines don't reflect the reality on the ground.

I agree the Russian response has been excessive, but then again, Georgia had to realize it was provoking that 800-pound gorilla when it blasted and charged into South Ossetia like a bull in a china shop. What we need now is Russia out of Georgia, and for Georgia to pledge not to station troops in South Ossetia. That region should be administered by international peacekeepers until a plebiscite can be held to allow the citizens there to choose whether they want to be part of Russia, part of Georgia, or independent.

And while that's going on, the events of the Georgian attack on South Ossetia and the Russian response need to be independently investigated, because both sides may have committed war crimes.

Who drew the S Ossetia line? Since it is a Province of Georgia iam not sure how it could be guilty of war crimes for simply fighting a foreign military within its own borders? I agree with some of your suggestions but one problem is the bush admin has backed non-russian entities for energy contracts so in addition to the other issues, specifically the strategic location of georgia, it doesn't seem anybody involved is going to rush to acquiesce any time soon.

 

[TheNewWorldMan]

Who drew the S Ossetia line? Since it is a Province of Georgia iam not sure how it could be guilty of war crimes for simply fighting a foreign military within its own borders?

This (or at least the latest iteration of this conflict) began when Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia before the Russians came in. The whole reason Russia intervened (ostensibly) was because Georgian forces shelled and bombed civilians in South Ossetia.

So far I haven't seen proof that Georgian forces committed war crimes, but I'm not willing to dismiss the possibility out of hand either. The actions of Georgia prior to the Russian invasion should be investigated, and if Georgian forces committed wanton acts of violence against civilians, then war crimes indictments should follow.

Likewise, the actions of the Russian forces should be investigated, and if they engaged in ethnic cleansing or other attacks on civilians, their leaders too should be indicted.

 

[RealDealNeverstop]

This (or at least the latest iteration of this conflict) began when Georgian forces attacked South Ossetia before the Russians came in. The whole reason Russia intervened (ostensibly) was because Georgian forces shelled and bombed civilians in South Ossetia.

So far I haven't seen proof that Georgian forces committed war crimes, but I'm not willing to dismiss the possibility out of hand either. The actions of Georgia prior to the Russian invasion should be investigated, and if Georgian forces committed wanton acts of violence against civilians, then war crimes indictments should follow.

Likewise, the actions of the Russian forces should be investigated, and if they engaged in ethnic cleansing or other attacks on civilians, their leaders too should be indicted.

A country can't commit war crimes within its own borders. (Strictly speaking of course) Georgia attacking a group All I saw was Russia said Georgia killed ten Russian soldiers.

Who created the Georgian borders? You compared it to the British empire when it drew iraq's lines (and then it created the nation of kuwait) so iam wondering who was the British in this case?

 

[ACougar]

South Osetia is an area populated by Osetians and Georgians... about 1/3 of the people there are Georgian, there are Georgian villages interspersed with Osetian villages. The Georgians jumped in for a reason, no one seems really sure why... other than that Osetians had steped up the shelling of Georgian villages and that US inteligence might have completly misread the situation, and advised Georgia that it could get away with that move.

In this simple chronicle, there is something quite mysterious: Why did the Georgians choose to invade South Ossetia on Thursday night? There had been a great deal of shelling by the South Ossetians of Georgian villages for the previous three nights, but while possibly more intense than usual, artillery exchanges were routine. The Georgians might not have fought well, but they committed fairly substantial forces that must have taken at the very least several days to deploy and supply. Georgia’s move was deliberate.

The United States is Georgia’s closest ally. It maintained about 130 military advisers in Georgia, along with civilian advisers, contractors involved in all aspects of the Georgian government and people doing business in Georgia. It is inconceivable that the Americans were unaware of Georgia’s mobilization and intentions. It is also inconceivable that the Americans were unaware that the Russians had deployed substantial forces on the South Ossetian frontier. U.S. technical intelligence, from satellite imagery and signals intelligence to unmanned aerial vehicles, could not miss the fact that thousands of Russian troops were moving to forward positions. The Russians clearly knew the Georgians were ready to move. How could the United States not be aware of the Russians? Indeed, given the posture of Russian troops, how could intelligence analysts have missed the possibility that t he Russians had laid a trap, hoping for a Georgian invasion to justify its own counterattack?

 

[RealDealNeverstop]

South Osetia is an area populated by Osetians and Georgians... about 1/3 of the people there are Georgian, there are Georgian villages interspersed with Osetian villages. The Georgians jumped in for a reason, no one seems really sure why... other than that Osetians had steped up the shelling of Georgian villages and that US inteligence might have completly misread the situation, and advised Georgia that it could get away with that move.

S Ossetia is a province of Georgia but they have been trying to secede from Georgia for a while. Georgia shelling S Ossetia is exactly what we did when the South tried to secede in the 1850s.

The parallels to Desert Storm are spooky:

1. Iraq was a US ally in 1989.

2. Kuwait was a break-away nation from Iraq.

3. The US gave Saddam permission to invade Kuwait.

4. We watched Saddam amass his military on the Kuwait border.

5. We acted "SHOCKED" when Iraq invaded Kuwait.

1. Georgia is a US ally in 2008.

2. S Ossetia is a break-away from Georgia.

3. (Putting the bull in the barn for a moment.) Seems clear the US gave Georgia permission to attack itself via a break-away province.

4. We watched Georgia and Russia amass their militaries on the borders.

5. We acted "SHOCKED" when Russia invaded Georgia.

I don't see us rolling over on Georgia like we did with Iraq unless we can secure an alliance with Russia against Iran. That's a stretch, so what I see is the Bush admin expanding military operations by the playbook released in Sept 2000. (Iam going to go look up Iran's reaction.)