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After months of anticipation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the onset of El Niño today. It could become one of the strongest El Niño events in history.
According to the agency, there is now a 63% chance of El Niño intensifying to “very strong” status between November and January, potentially ranking among the largest events in the historical record going back to 1950.
A so-called “super” El Niño would also have major implications for the climate crisis. “Starting soon all months will be the warmest on record once El Niño kicks into high gear,” Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist for WFLA Tampa Bay, posted on X yesterday.
NOAA is the second major weather agency to declare El Niño after the Japanese Meteorological Agency made the call on Wednesday. Other countries and the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization are sure to follow. NOAA made its determination based on persistent above-average sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region
[From another thread
Interesting wrinkle:
Human-caused climate change will add a layer of complexity to the 2026-2027 El Niño. As carbon emissions have continued to crank up Earth’s temperature, it’s become increasingly difficult for meteorologists to separate the affects of anthropogenic warming from the natural climate variation of ENSO, meteorologist Ben Noll explains in an article for the Washington Post.
To address that problem, NOAA and other agencies now use a climate change-adjusted El Niño index called the Relative Oceanic Niño index, or RONI.
[Of course the ocean is hotter because everything is hotter, so they have to adjust for that in their calculations.]
After months of anticipation, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) officially declared the onset of El Niño today. It could become one of the strongest El Niño events in history.
According to the agency, there is now a 63% chance of El Niño intensifying to “very strong” status between November and January, potentially ranking among the largest events in the historical record going back to 1950.
A so-called “super” El Niño would also have major implications for the climate crisis. “Starting soon all months will be the warmest on record once El Niño kicks into high gear,” Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist and climate specialist for WFLA Tampa Bay, posted on X yesterday.
NOAA is the second major weather agency to declare El Niño after the Japanese Meteorological Agency made the call on Wednesday. Other countries and the United Nations’ World Meteorological Organization are sure to follow. NOAA made its determination based on persistent above-average sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region
[From another thread
Interesting wrinkle:
Human-caused climate change will add a layer of complexity to the 2026-2027 El Niño. As carbon emissions have continued to crank up Earth’s temperature, it’s become increasingly difficult for meteorologists to separate the affects of anthropogenic warming from the natural climate variation of ENSO, meteorologist Ben Noll explains in an article for the Washington Post.
To address that problem, NOAA and other agencies now use a climate change-adjusted El Niño index called the Relative Oceanic Niño index, or RONI.
[Of course the ocean is hotter because everything is hotter, so they have to adjust for that in their calculations.]
