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China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0.

Tuur

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Its a huge market that we've now lost, probably long term as theyve gone and found providers elsewhere.
And?

I take it there's not many who've been involved in farming here. The market is in a constant flux. I once went to check an irrigation installation and the farmer met me, thinking I was checking why he wasn't using electricity. It was obvious from looking at the corn field that he wasn't running irrigation. The reason was that a big crop in the Midwest meant the price dropped to where there was no way he was going to turn a profit on corn. It was cheaper not to put more money into the crop and let it die in the field than to put more in it and not make back his investment.

This is nothing new. Locals who tried to plant canola found they had to shift. I've seen cotton go away and come back, and pretty much go away again this year. There's the aforementioned investment in peanuts locally this year. I don't think anyone wants to talk about tobacco, but remember when that was a huge crop. Some are trying olives. We'll see. Blueberries are big in places now. And come to think of it, I haven't seen a traditional pulpwood truck, with logs cut into six to eight foot sections and stacked perpendicular to the frame, in decades.

BTW, the next time you go grocery shopping, check out the vegetable oils. You should be able to find soybean oil. The print industry shifted to soybean oil based inks back when newspapers were still a thing. It's also used in products like paints and plastics. And, while doing a quick fact-check, found biodiesel, though I don't think it's doing as well as some thought it would.
 
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FAITH-IN-HIM

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Free trade is a misnomer to me. There has never been absolute free trade. Trade agreements always came with tariff schedules when enacted between countries. I think protectionism has it's place. Biden placed a 100 percent tariff on Chinese EVs simply because it would have killed the US EV market. Canada had dairy agreement where once the US bought a given amount, a 100 percent tariff kicked in. They did it to protect their dairy market.
I agree with your viewpoint. Considerations of national interest often take precedence over absolute free trade, resulting in certain necessary restrictions. Both Democratic and Republican parties took such factors into account when passing trade agreements prior to 2017. However, this does not reflect Senator Sanders' position. While he may not have explicitly declared himself a protectionist, a brief review indicates that Senator Sanders has never endorsed or voted for any trade agreement throughout his political career; none have met his standards.
 
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7thKeeper

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Its a huge market that we've now lost, probably long term as theyve gone and found providers elsewhere.
I can't remember what interview it was, but there was one with a farmer who dealt in soybeans and he said that even if the USA got 100% of every other market other than China now, they'd still be selling less than they were a while ago.
 
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durangodawood

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And?

I take it there's not many who've been involved in farming here. The market is in a constant flux. I once went to check an irrigation installation and the farmer met me, thinking I was checking why he wasn't using electricity. It was obvious from looking at the corn field that he wasn't running irrigation. The reason was that a big crop in the Midwest meant the price dropped to where there was no way he was going to turn a profit on corn. It was cheaper not to put more money into the crop and let it die in the field than to put more in it and not make back his investment.

This is nothing new. Locals who tried to plant canola found they had to shift. I've seen cotton go away and come back, and pretty much go away again this year. There's the aforementioned investment in peanuts locally this year. I don't think anyone wants to talk about tobacco, but remember when that was a huge crop. Some are trying olives. We'll see. Blueberries are big in places now. And come to think of it, I haven't seen a traditional pulpwood truck, with logs cut into six to eight foot sections and stacked perpendicular to the frame, in decades.

BTW, the next time you go grocery shopping, check out the vegetable oils. You should be able to find soybean oil. The print industry shifted to soybean oil based inks back when newspapers were still a thing. It's also used in products like paints and plastics. And, while doing a quick fact-check, found biodiesel, though I don't think it's doing as well as some thought it would.
This is a market that now appears to be lost. Of course people who want to continue farming will need to shift. But overall the market for US farmed goods has now declined. So any existing markets that farmers enter will just be more crowded and difficult.

Yes theres the option for new markets for soy (which will of course shrink the market for whatever commodity soy displaces.) Net, we've lost a large market for American goods. The plan is for China to lose markets here, which domestic capacity will pick up. That will take time and pain - and almost certainly inflation. We'll see if Americans find that all worth it.
 
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rambot

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And?

I take it there's not many who've been involved in farming here. The market is in a constant flux. I once went to check an irrigation installation and the farmer met me, thinking I was checking why he wasn't using electricity. It was obvious from looking at the corn field that he wasn't running irrigation. The reason was that a big crop in the Midwest meant the price dropped to where there was no way he was going to turn a profit on corn. It was cheaper not to put more money into the crop and let it die in the field than to put more in it and not make back his investment.
Seems weird that American farmers are arguing so unbelievably desperately and loudly.
 
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rambot

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Who knew a nation with over a billion soy consumers would be hard to replace?
I wonder if it's fair to say that this particular struggle at this particular instant in time is 100% due to Trump.

Seems like it. IT's REALLY hard to go from 11billion to nothing....he must have really pwned the Chinese good!
 
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Richard T

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What’s sad about a group of people getting what they overwhelmingly asked for?
lol, I think people are getting more than they asked for. I just wonder how far it will go
 
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Aryeh Jay

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lol, I think people are getting more than they asked for. I just wonder how far it will go

Getting more than one asked for is a good thing. When I order 10 McNugggets and find 12 in the box, I am happy! The farmers should be happy their guy won fare and square. They should be happy to be legal citizens, they should be happy to still have a farm, and should be excited for an even better third term!
 
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Say it aint so

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Another note about a potential bailout of Argentina. In some words, US hedge fund managers and Javier Milei, a Trump ally.. They have invested heavily in that countries potential economy. But Milei is mucking the country up. So Scott Besset, a hedge fund manager himself and the Trump admin propose a bailout. It's really a hedge fund bailout. Meanwhile, US farmers take a beat down but hey, it's what they voted for ignoring what happened Trump tariffs 1.0. Now they are yammering for a bailout. And again like last time that money will end up in the hands of the corporate farming.
 
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Richard T

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Getting more than one asked for is a good thing. When I order 10 McNugggets and find 12 in the box, I am happy! The farmers should be happy their guy won fare and square. They should be happy to be legal citizens, they should be happy to still have a farm, and should be excited for an even better third term!
Under "Farmageddon" many may not have a farm for much longer. I expect they will get a bailout but the ultra-wealthy too are looking for land deals, so Trump may pull the plug on US farmers so the rich can further force out many farmers and use that asset to diversify. Farming landlords now own 30% of all farmland. At some point they will hit a critical mass where they can dicate higher prices if they choose.
 
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Tuur

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This is a market that now appears to be lost. Of course people who want to continue farming will need to shift. But overall the market for US farmed goods has now declined. So any existing markets that farmers enter will just be more crowded and difficult.
Not necessarily. See my post about how the market stays in flux. I've watched local agriculture change all my life, and it will continue to change long after I'm gone. That's the nature of agriculture. The one thing that most farmers have learned the hard way is that you don't go into something where you don't have a market.

Agriculture has changed so much in the US that it's unreal. Florida and part of Georgia was once known as cattle country. Once saw in an old Sears & Roebuck catalog cattle whips billed as being in the Florida and Georgia pattern. Then there were the sheep shears I found growing up, and learned from my father that sheep were once a going thing locally. I know of where there were rice plantations where rice hasn't been grown for more than a century. We used to grow tobacco. Before that, sugarcane. I've seen local fields of canola. And, as I pointed out, locally I haven't seen soybeans, but farmers planted a lot of peanuts this year. At one point I thought cotton was finished locally, but then it came back. The same for corn. Now, this year, have seen less cotton and even less corn planted. It all changes.
 
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durangodawood

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Not necessarily. See my post about how the market stays in flux. I've watched local agriculture change all my life, and it will continue to change long after I'm gone. That's the nature of agriculture. The one thing that most farmers have learned the hard way is that you don't go into something where you don't have a market.

Agriculture has changed so much in the US that it's unreal. Florida and part of Georgia was once known as cattle country. Once saw in an old Sears & Roebuck catalog cattle whips billed as being in the Florida and Georgia pattern. Then there were the sheep shears I found growing up, and learned from my father that sheep were once a going thing locally. I know of where there were rice plantations where rice hasn't been grown for more than a century. We used to grow tobacco. Before that, sugarcane. I've seen local fields of canola. And, as I pointed out, locally I haven't seen soybeans, but farmers planted a lot of peanuts this year. At one point I thought cotton was finished locally, but then it came back. The same for corn. Now, this year, have seen less cotton and even less corn planted. It all changes.
Flux is one thing. But this is a recipe for decline across the industry. Net loss of customers, shrunken overall market for US ag, after it all shakes out.
 
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Tuur

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Flux is one thing. But this is a recipe for decline across the industry. Net loss of customers, shrunken overall market for US ag, after it all shakes out.
Based on what? History says otherwise, or there wouldn't be a farm left after the bowl weevil arrived. I'm quite sure some wish it would play out that way.
 
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durangodawood

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Based on what? History says otherwise, or there wouldn't be a farm left after the bowl weevil arrived. I'm quite sure some wish it would play out that way.
The boll weevil didn't lower demand for farmed products.
 
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Say it aint so

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Trump Policies Add to Farming Distress as Bankruptcies Increase

President Donald Trump’s global tariffs and freezing of federal agriculture grants have added to financial strains on American farmers, who are seeking refuge in bankruptcy at the highest rate in years.
Family farm bankruptcies increased by 55% last year compared to 2023 and are trending even higher this year as farmers continue to grapple with depressed agricultural commodity prices and high input costs. And while much of the industrywide distress predates his second stint in the White House, Trump has quickly nudged more farmers closer to the brink of going under and created turbulence for producers trying to make ends meet.
Unpredictable tariffs, immigration overhauls, federal program cuts and frozen Agriculture Department funding are now part of the discussions farmers are having as they seek financial help.
“‘What’s going on in Washington?’ is the subject of almost every conversation that I have,” said North Carolina farm bankruptcy attorney David Mills of Narron Wenzel PA. “There’s a lot of anxiety.”
Farm bankruptcy filings soared in 2019 during the height of Trump’s trade war with China, which targeted US agriculture with a sweeping retaliatory tariff regime mirroring the response China is pursuing today. Trump’s administration sent farmers an estimated $23 billion covering export losses to try to stop more farms from going under.

Are we winning yet?
 
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Say it aint so

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Sen Grassley: ““Why would USA help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers’ biggest market???”

Commenter:
NOTE to GRASSLEY:
Argentina did not take “American soybean producers’ biggest market”…
YOU and TRUMP gave it to them.
 
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Tuur

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The boll weevil didn't lower demand for farmed products.
The demand for farm goods is dictated by those who eat, drink, and wear items grown/raised on a farm. Your comments have the unspoken assumption that the demand will be made up elsewhere. Since China imports over two and a half times more soybeans from Brazil than it does the US, that's possible there. You way want to ask if their other sources can fully make up the 25% of all Chinese soybean imports that they had gotten from the US. You may also want to ask that if Brazil and other countries up their soybean production, what other crops will they take out of production. And lastly, you may want to ask what will it do to the cost of soybeans in China when US farms grow something else and that 25% of what they were once importing is no longer available.

Make if it what you will. Or not. It's up to you.
 
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mark46

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""The rise of President Trump marked a shift in conservative politics, with his stance against free trade and globalism aligning closely with positions held by Senator Bernie Sanders and American labor unions.""

Protectionism of certain job sectors is the whole point of tariffs. Always has by every admin. They have been used like a scapulae knife, and not the hammer pulled from the tool box as a redress to every problem. I seriously doubt the National Farmers Union agree with Trump's position. Sanders talks of "targeted tariffs" which is not what Trump is doing. The Trump stance and the Sanders stance are not aligned at all.
Trump has instituted both across-the board tariffs. Trump also implemented several kinds of targeted tariffs.

ACROSS THE BOARD TARIFFS
This is a flat amount to all goods from a country or for all countries as a default. I believe that we now have a 10% rate (or is it 15%). This type of tax is before the courts and arguably requires Congressional approval (so this type could be reversed and then put in the Spring 2026 BBB). This type of tariff is in effect a tax on imported goods. Some of the cost can be absorbed by the seller and/or by one of the companies on the supply chain. In the end, prices go up. This is a policy of 100 years ago and has several effects: increase of cost to the consumer, and a decrease in the amount of imports. Also, there is pressure for the producer to reduce his cost to produce , sometimes by reducing quality. Of course, this tax also can reduce the amount of the deficit or debt.

My BOTTOM line on this type of tax is that it is inflationary and very, very poor economic policy.
========================================
FIRST TYPE OF TARGETED TARIFF - PROTECTIONISM
Examples are steel and autos. This type of tax has been supported by Democrats and unions for decades. The effect is to protect US jobs and to reduce the amount of the tariffed good imported. They work but sometimes have side effects. For example, steel tariffs in Trump1 saved a couple of thousand steel jobs. However, manufacturing jobs that used steel to make the product saw a loss of ten times that amount. To be clear, this may be OK, especially if the industry is very important to the US for national security. Arguably, we NEED to have a strong steel industry in the US.

My BOTTOM line on this type of tax is that is inflationary, but that may be OK. My only thought is that we need to consider the side effects.
============
SECOND TYPE OF TARGETED TARIFF - TRUMP WANTS TO PUNISH THE COUNTRY
1) Brazil is a good example. We have a 50% tax on Brazil because they convicted a criminal friend of his.
Canada is another example of this. He didn't like the leader so he inflicted big tariffs. He didn't like an ad in their paper so he stopped negotiating. Trump does this a lot and this is the worst kind of tariff.
2) Switzerland is a different kind of example. We will have a 39% tax on them because they don't buy enough goods from us. This is simply Trump's ignorance with regard to economics. I buy from Amazon. Perhaps, I should buy less because they don't buy enough from me???
3) China is a third kind. China has policies that are harmful to the US and Trump uses tariffs to get them to change. India buying Russin oil is another example. In the past, Mexico didn't cooperate enough in catching drug smugglers. Spain doesn't spend enough on Defense. Japan effectively doesn't allow imports of US autos.

My BOTTOM line on this type of tariff is that it is what it is; Trump's bullying. To be fair, this often works. BTW, there is Democratic support for tariffs and sanctions on China, even though the cost to consumer may be large.
 
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bèlla

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lol, I think people are getting more than they asked for. I just wonder how far it will go

There’s a few policy proposals for farmers. Here‘s what I found. The link is in the title.

Eliminate USDA Revenue-Based Crop Insurance Policies

The federal government should not be in the business of insuring price or revenue; agricultural producers, like other businesses, should not be insulated from market forces or guaranteed financial success at the expense of taxpayers. Revenue-based crop insurance is unnecessarily generous and should be eliminated. Taxpayer-subsidized crop insurance should be limited to yield insurance as it was in the past.

Reduce Premium Subsidies in the Federal Crop Insurance Program

Taxpayers pay, on average, 62 percent of crop insurance premiums, but farmers pay only 38 percent for their own policies. This is an unreasonable and unnecessary burden on taxpayers.

The CBO found that reducing premium subsidy rates by 15 percentage points to 47 percent would reduce the number of insured acres (300 million) by just one-half of 1 percent, to 298.5 million acres. It also explained that 1.5 percent of insured acres would have lower coverage levels. This would presumably affect crop insurance participation more than reducing the subsidy to a 47 percent level would, but the CBO notes that “[a]n argument in favor of this option is that cutting the federal subsidies for premiums would probably not substantially affect participation in the program.”4 For participating farmers, this subsidy would also remain very generous.

In addition to reducing the premium subsidy rate, there should also be a limit on the total amount of subsidies provided on behalf of producers to help pay for their crop insurance premiums. The GAO has recommended limiting premium subsidies for farmers to $40,000.

Repeal the USDA Agriculture Risk Coverage and Price Loss Coverage Programs

The ARC and PLC programs are two major subsidy programs that apply to about 20 commodities. On a crop-by-crop basis, farmers can participate in the ARC program or the PLC program. The ARC program protects farmers from shallow losses, providing payments when their actual revenues fall below 86 percent of the expected revenues for their crops. The PLC program provides payments to farmers when commodity prices fall below a fixed, statutorily established reference price.

These programs go far beyond providing a safety net for farmers. Most farmers succeed even though they receive little-to-no taxpayer assistance. If they do receive assistance, it is usually to help with a disaster or crop loss. Yet a small number of producers growing a small number of commodities receive significant amounts of taxpayer dollars, including through the ARC and PLC programs.

According to the Congressional Research Service, from 2014 to 2016, 94 percent of farm program support went to just six commodities—corn, cotton, peanuts, rice, soybeans, and wheat—that together account for only 28 percent of farm receipts.3 Worse still, this assistance is generally not provided to help with actual disasters, but to help ensure farmers meet revenue goals.

The ARC and PLC programs are a major part of this excessive and inappropriate assistance to a small group of favored producers.

Eliminate the USDA Rural Business-Cooperative Service

The Rural Business-Cooperative Service maintains a wide range of financial assistance programs for rural businesses. It also has a significant focus on renewable energy and global warming, including subsidies for biofuels. Rural businesses are fully capable of running themselves, investing, and seeking assistance through private means. The fact that these businesses are in rural areas does not change the fact that they can and should succeed on their own merits just as other businesses must. Private capital will find its way to worthy investments.

The government should not be in the business of picking winners and losers when it comes to private investments or energy sources. Instead of funneling taxpayer dollars to businesses in rural communities, the federal government should identify and remove the obstacles to those businesses that it has created.

Eliminate the USDA Conservation Technical Assistance Program

Congress should eliminate the USDA’s Conservation Technical Assistance Program. Federal taxpayers should not be forced to subsidize advice that landowners should be paying for on their own. In addition, this government intervention could be crowding out private solutions that should be available to private landowners.

The USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service runs this costly program that offers landowners technical assistance on natural resource management. This assistance includes help in maintaining private lands, complying with laws, enhancing recreational activities, and improving the aesthetic character of private land. Private landowners are the best stewards of a given property and, if necessary, can seek private solutions to conservation challenges.

Eliminate the USDA Sugar Program

The federal sugar program uses price supports and marketing allotments that limit how much sugar processors can sell each year. It also restricts imports of sugar. As a result of government intervention to limit supply, the price of American sugar is consistently higher than—and, at times, twice as high as—world prices.

This program may benefit a small number of sugar growers and harvesters, but it does so at the expense of sugar-using industries and consumers. An International Trade Administration report found that “[f]or each sugar growing and harvesting job saved through high U.S. sugar prices, nearly three confectionery manufacturing jobs are lost.” The program is also a hidden tax on consumers: Recent studies have found that it costs consumers as much as $3.7 billion per year.

~bella
 
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