China Bought $12.6 Billion in U.S. Soybeans Last Year. Now, It’s $0.

[Tuur]

Its a huge market that we've now lost, probably long term as theyve gone and found providers elsewhere.

And?

I take it there's not many who've been involved in farming here. The market is in a constant flux. I once went to check an irrigation installation and the farmer met me, thinking I was checking why he wasn't using electricity. It was obvious from looking at the corn field that he wasn't running irrigation. The reason was that a big crop in the Midwest meant the price dropped to where there was no way he was going to turn a profit on corn. It was cheaper not to put more money into the crop and let it die in the field than to put more in it and not make back his investment.

This is nothing new. Locals who tried to plant canola found they had to shift. I've seen cotton go away and come back, and pretty much go away again this year. There's the aforementioned investment in peanuts locally this year. I don't think anyone wants to talk about tobacco, but remember when that was a huge crop. Some are trying olives. We'll see. Blueberries are big in places now. And come to think of it, I haven't seen a traditional pulpwood truck, with logs cut into six to eight foot sections and stacked perpendicular to the frame, in decades.

BTW, the next time you go grocery shopping, check out the vegetable oils. You should be able to find soybean oil. The print industry shifted to soybean oil based inks back when newspapers were still a thing. It's also used in products like paints and plastics. And, while doing a quick fact-check, found biodiesel, though I don't think it's doing as well as some thought it would.

 

[FAITH-IN-HIM]

Free trade is a misnomer to me. There has never been absolute free trade. Trade agreements always came with tariff schedules when enacted between countries. I think protectionism has it's place. Biden placed a 100 percent tariff on Chinese EVs simply because it would have killed the US EV market. Canada had dairy agreement where once the US bought a given amount, a 100 percent tariff kicked in. They did it to protect their dairy market.

I agree with your viewpoint. Considerations of national interest often take precedence over absolute free trade, resulting in certain necessary restrictions. Both Democratic and Republican parties took such factors into account when passing trade agreements prior to 2017. However, this does not reflect Senator Sanders' position. While he may not have explicitly declared himself a protectionist, a brief review indicates that Senator Sanders has never endorsed or voted for any trade agreement throughout his political career; none have met his standards.

 

[7thKeeper]

Its a huge market that we've now lost, probably long term as theyve gone and found providers elsewhere.

I can't remember what interview it was, but there was one with a farmer who dealt in soybeans and he said that even if the USA got 100% of every other market other than China now, they'd still be selling less than they were a while ago.

 

[durangodawood]

And?

I take it there's not many who've been involved in farming here. The market is in a constant flux. I once went to check an irrigation installation and the farmer met me, thinking I was checking why he wasn't using electricity. It was obvious from looking at the corn field that he wasn't running irrigation. The reason was that a big crop in the Midwest meant the price dropped to where there was no way he was going to turn a profit on corn. It was cheaper not to put more money into the crop and let it die in the field than to put more in it and not make back his investment.

This is nothing new. Locals who tried to plant canola found they had to shift. I've seen cotton go away and come back, and pretty much go away again this year. There's the aforementioned investment in peanuts locally this year. I don't think anyone wants to talk about tobacco, but remember when that was a huge crop. Some are trying olives. We'll see. Blueberries are big in places now. And come to think of it, I haven't seen a traditional pulpwood truck, with logs cut into six to eight foot sections and stacked perpendicular to the frame, in decades.

BTW, the next time you go grocery shopping, check out the vegetable oils. You should be able to find soybean oil. The print industry shifted to soybean oil based inks back when newspapers were still a thing. It's also used in products like paints and plastics. And, while doing a quick fact-check, found biodiesel, though I don't think it's doing as well as some thought it would.

This is a market that now appears to be lost. Of course people who want to continue farming will need to shift. But overall the market for US farmed goods has now declined. So any existing markets that farmers enter will just be more crowded and difficult.

Yes theres the option for new markets for soy (which will of course shrink the market for whatever commodity soy displaces.) Net, we've lost a large market for American goods. The plan is for China to lose markets here, which domestic capacity will pick up. That will take time and pain - and almost certainly inflation. We'll see if Americans find that all worth it.

 

[GoldenBoy89]

Who knew a nation with over a billion soy consumers would be hard to replace?

 

[rambot]

And?

I take it there's not many who've been involved in farming here. The market is in a constant flux. I once went to check an irrigation installation and the farmer met me, thinking I was checking why he wasn't using electricity. It was obvious from looking at the corn field that he wasn't running irrigation. The reason was that a big crop in the Midwest meant the price dropped to where there was no way he was going to turn a profit on corn. It was cheaper not to put more money into the crop and let it die in the field than to put more in it and not make back his investment.

Seems weird that American farmers are arguing so unbelievably desperately and loudly.

 

[rambot]

Who knew a nation with over a billion soy consumers would be hard to replace?

I wonder if it's fair to say that this particular struggle at this particular instant in time is 100% due to Trump.

Seems like it. IT's REALLY hard to go from 11billion to nothing....he must have really pwned the Chinese good!

 

[Richard T]

What’s sad about a group of people getting what they overwhelmingly asked for?

lol, I think people are getting more than they asked for. I just wonder how far it will go

 

[Aryeh Jay]

lol, I think people are getting more than they asked for. I just wonder how far it will go

Getting more than one asked for is a good thing. When I order 10 McNugggets and find 12 in the box, I am happy! The farmers should be happy their guy won fare and square. They should be happy to be legal citizens, they should be happy to still have a farm, and should be excited for an even better third term!

 

[Say it aint so]

Another note about a potential bailout of Argentina. In some words, US hedge fund managers and Javier Milei, a Trump ally.. They have invested heavily in that countries potential economy. But Milei is mucking the country up. So Scott Besset, a hedge fund manager himself and the Trump admin propose a bailout. It's really a hedge fund bailout. Meanwhile, US farmers take a beat down but hey, it's what they voted for ignoring what happened Trump tariffs 1.0. Now they are yammering for a bailout. And again like last time that money will end up in the hands of the corporate farming.

 

[Richard T]

Getting more than one asked for is a good thing. When I order 10 McNugggets and find 12 in the box, I am happy! The farmers should be happy their guy won fare and square. They should be happy to be legal citizens, they should be happy to still have a farm, and should be excited for an even better third term!

Under "Farmageddon" many may not have a farm for much longer. I expect they will get a bailout but the ultra-wealthy too are looking for land deals, so Trump may pull the plug on US farmers so the rich can further force out many farmers and use that asset to diversify. Farming landlords now own 30% of all farmland. At some point they will hit a critical mass where they can dicate higher prices if they choose.

https://edition.cnn.com/2025/09/20/politics/us-farmers-trump-tariffs-dire-consequences

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/20/heres-why-the-ultra-wealthy-like-bill-gates-investing-to-farmland.html

 

[Tuur]

This is a market that now appears to be lost. Of course people who want to continue farming will need to shift. But overall the market for US farmed goods has now declined. So any existing markets that farmers enter will just be more crowded and difficult.

Not necessarily. See my post about how the market stays in flux. I've watched local agriculture change all my life, and it will continue to change long after I'm gone. That's the nature of agriculture. The one thing that most farmers have learned the hard way is that you don't go into something where you don't have a market.

Agriculture has changed so much in the US that it's unreal. Florida and part of Georgia was once known as cattle country. Once saw in an old Sears & Roebuck catalog cattle whips billed as being in the Florida and Georgia pattern. Then there were the sheep shears I found growing up, and learned from my father that sheep were once a going thing locally. I know of where there were rice plantations where rice hasn't been grown for more than a century. We used to grow tobacco. Before that, sugarcane. I've seen local fields of canola. And, as I pointed out, locally I haven't seen soybeans, but farmers planted a lot of peanuts this year. At one point I thought cotton was finished locally, but then it came back. The same for corn. Now, this year, have seen less cotton and even less corn planted. It all changes.

 

[durangodawood]

Not necessarily. See my post about how the market stays in flux. I've watched local agriculture change all my life, and it will continue to change long after I'm gone. That's the nature of agriculture. The one thing that most farmers have learned the hard way is that you don't go into something where you don't have a market.

Agriculture has changed so much in the US that it's unreal. Florida and part of Georgia was once known as cattle country. Once saw in an old Sears & Roebuck catalog cattle whips billed as being in the Florida and Georgia pattern. Then there were the sheep shears I found growing up, and learned from my father that sheep were once a going thing locally. I know of where there were rice plantations where rice hasn't been grown for more than a century. We used to grow tobacco. Before that, sugarcane. I've seen local fields of canola. And, as I pointed out, locally I haven't seen soybeans, but farmers planted a lot of peanuts this year. At one point I thought cotton was finished locally, but then it came back. The same for corn. Now, this year, have seen less cotton and even less corn planted. It all changes.

Flux is one thing. But this is a recipe for decline across the industry. Net loss of customers, shrunken overall market for US ag, after it all shakes out.

 

[Tuur]

Flux is one thing. But this is a recipe for decline across the industry. Net loss of customers, shrunken overall market for US ag, after it all shakes out.

Based on what? History says otherwise, or there wouldn't be a farm left after the bowl weevil arrived. I'm quite sure some wish it would play out that way.

 

[durangodawood]

Based on what? History says otherwise, or there wouldn't be a farm left after the bowl weevil arrived. I'm quite sure some wish it would play out that way.

The boll weevil didn't lower demand for farmed products.

 

[Say it aint so]

Trump Policies Add to Farming Distress as Bankruptcies Increase​

President Donald Trump’s global tariffs and freezing of federal agriculture grants have added to financial strains on American farmers, who are seeking refuge in bankruptcy at the highest rate in years.​

​

Family farm bankruptcies increased by 55% last year compared to 2023 and are trending even higher this year as farmers continue to grapple with depressed agricultural commodity prices and high input costs. And while much of the industrywide distress predates his second stint in the White House, Trump has quickly nudged more farmers closer to the brink of going under and created turbulence for producers trying to make ends meet.​

​

Unpredictable tariffs, immigration overhauls, federal program cuts and frozen Agriculture Department funding are now part of the discussions farmers are having as they seek financial help.​

​

“‘What’s going on in Washington?’ is the subject of almost every conversation that I have,” said North Carolina farm bankruptcy attorney David Mills of Narron Wenzel PA. “There’s a lot of anxiety.”​

​

Farm bankruptcy filings soared in 2019 during the height of Trump’s trade war with China, which targeted US agriculture with a sweeping retaliatory tariff regime mirroring the response China is pursuing today. Trump’s administration sent farmers an estimated $23 billion covering export losses to try to stop more farms from going under.​

Are we winning yet?

 

[Say it aint so]

Sen Grassley: ““Why would USA help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers’ biggest market???”

Commenter:
NOTE to GRASSLEY:
Argentina did not take “American soybean producers’ biggest market”…
YOU and TRUMP gave it to them.

 

[Tuur]

The boll weevil didn't lower demand for farmed products.

The demand for farm goods is dictated by those who eat, drink, and wear items grown/raised on a farm. Your comments have the unspoken assumption that the demand will be made up elsewhere. Since China imports over two and a half times more soybeans from Brazil than it does the US, that's possible there. You way want to ask if their other sources can fully make up the 25% of all Chinese soybean imports that they had gotten from the US. You may also want to ask that if Brazil and other countries up their soybean production, what other crops will they take out of production. And lastly, you may want to ask what will it do to the cost of soybeans in China when US farms grow something else and that 25% of what they were once importing is no longer available.

Make if it what you will. Or not. It's up to you.