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Fewer international tourists are visiting the U.S. — economic losses could be ‘staggering,’ researchers estimate
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essentialsaltes
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Flights to the US were also reduced in 2022 so it did happened during the Biden presidency.
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essentialsaltes
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Yeah, no.
International flights were 18.8% higher in the first week of 2023 than they were in the first week of 2022. Flights grew pretty consistently through 2022 - there was not a single week in 2022 where flights were lower than the equivalent week in 2021.
Here's weekly international flights to the US for 2020 through to the 2nd of June 2025. The dotted line is a 13-week rolling average, to reduce some of the seasonality impacts. The mid-year downturn seen in 2022 is the typical seasonal downturn seen after the end of July/early August.
For the year to date (first 22 weeks), international flights to the US are up 0.8%. But, growth has slowed through the year. Here's the year-on-year change in weekly international flights:
Keep in mind a number of things:
This represents all inbound/outbound flights - not passengers. Average load factors have dropped steadily for the Canadian, Mexican and trans-Atlantic markets, but are up for Asia Pacific and other Latin American markets. Overall, international load factors are down about 2.2% - which is enough to turn that growth in flights into a reduction in passengers.
This represents US and foreign airlines. US outbound travel is doing fine - it's up about 6-7% this year. However, inbound travel is not doing fine. I could dig into the data to break-out US vs international carriers, but that's half an afternoon's work. As for actual passenger numbers, see my post earlier in the thread.
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The problem of assessing tourism during the Biden admin is travel slumped due to Covid restrictions and fears, and then surged as restrictions were lifted and people felt is was safer to travel.
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It's not. It's being made by travel associations and professional forecasters.
WTTC is not "the left". It's a global travel and tourism representative association
Oxford Economics is not "the left". It's a highly respected economic forecaster.
The US Travel Association is not "the left", it's the main business travel lobbying body in the US (and its new leader is a major Trump fan).
"The left" is just pointing out that the Trump administration's actions are making the US a less attractive place for tourists (and business travellers).
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US and Canadian airlines, for as start.
Schedule reductions are likely planned out to about the end of September (airlines plan their international operations around on two big schedule bands, Summer starting in April and Winter starting in October).
As for why, it's because fewer people want to travel to the US. And, that sentiment is nearly universally based on their negative opinion(s) of the policies of the Trump administration (both domestic and foreign).
Here's the change in forecast growth (seats) for US-Canada flights in the last two months:
As of 28 March
June: +8.4%
July: +10%
August: +11.2%
As of 30 May
June: -1.3%
July: -3%
August: -3.2%
Data is from Airlines for America, based on schedules data from Statistics Canada and Cirrium.
Source: A4A-State-of-US-Commercial-Aviation-40.pdf
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essentialsaltes
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US image takes a blow in many nations — study
Mexico and Sweden were the two countries where the opinion of the US suffered most, with drops of 32 percentage points in positive ratings (from 61% to 29%) in the first and 28 percentage points (47% to 19%) in the second in comparison with 2024.US popularity among adults in Poland and Canada fell by more than 20 percentage points over the year in both countries.
The fall in US popularity in Germany was also marked: from 49% to 33% (16 percentage points).
[On the bright side, possibly more Germans aligned with AfD will come visit.]
In Germany, supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party were far more likely to have positive opinions of the US (63%) than those who do not back the party (25%).
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Update on US tourism for year to May-2025. Air traffic was:
US citizen outbound/return travel of 60.088 million, up 2.010 million passengers
Foreign citizen inbound/return travel of 47.319 million, down 1.007 million passengers (about -2.1%).
Forecasts are now that foreign visits to the US will likely be down somewhere between 3% and 6% for the year. That's not catastrophic, but it's not great either. US airlines rely on about 70-80% originating traffic, so the major part of the impact is going to fall on foreign airlines.
Given foreign arrivals spent about $185-200 billion in the US in 2024, that's an economic loss of somewhere between $5.6 billion and $12 billion.
US citizen outbound/return travel of 60.088 million, up 2.010 million passengers
Foreign citizen inbound/return travel of 47.319 million, down 1.007 million passengers (about -2.1%).
Forecasts are now that foreign visits to the US will likely be down somewhere between 3% and 6% for the year. That's not catastrophic, but it's not great either. US airlines rely on about 70-80% originating traffic, so the major part of the impact is going to fall on foreign airlines.
Given foreign arrivals spent about $185-200 billion in the US in 2024, that's an economic loss of somewhere between $5.6 billion and $12 billion.
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