SimplyMe
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- Jul 19, 2003
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Key Word: DECADES
It took about 50 years to switch from horses to cars.
The Horse Cavalry was still in operation 1942.
Granted, the technology may not take so long
However it is not going to happen by government force in 5 years.
As you point out, the comparison isn't the same. I mean, I could point out that we had electric cars a century ago -- so the technology has seen a great deal of improvement in the last century. Just that, since gas engines won out they got more of the research money. At the same time, the electrical grid and electrical components aren vastly different from a century ago and today, just as gasoline cars have changed in that period. Batteries have been around for centuries and seen improvement; this isn't about inventing a completely new technology but rather inventing ways to make that technology faster and more efficient.
Again, Toyota claims they have solved the issues with a capacitive battery, that they are getting ready to produce it and will be ready to mass produce it by 2028. I hope that is true, though I remain skeptical. At the same time, there are a large number of companies working on that technology -- in large part because of how it will improve battery charging in EVs. And I doubt Toyota would be making those claims if they didn't believe they could come close to their target; while I'm skeptical I think they (and others) will likely be ready by about 2030.
In the meantime, here in the real world, the average American (I believe something like 90%) drive less than 50 miles per day. Most Americans can switch to an EV -- though to do so easily will require more infrastructure and that does seem to be accelerating as EVs are sold. I'm sure we will need more power -- though that has happened without EVs over the last 50 years -- but not as much as people think. The fact is, people charging at home typically charge at night, when power demand is less than half of what it tends to be during the day. We actually turn off entire power plants at night, more EVs will largely just mean that those power plants don't shut down.
Now, yes, some of this may be too ambitious. At the same time, the government deals with that all the time. There have been many government "mandates" that get postponed, including the fuel economy mandates. And that ignores the fact that the car industry has done a lot to get around the EPA mandates -- which is yet another reason so many SUVs are sold today (they are classified as trucks, not cars), to get around the fuel economy mandates. And particularly with the lobbying power of oil companies, as well as the automakers, and a not insignificant number of voters, I have little doubt these rules will be moved out.
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