We need a mask and wash order, not a stay at home order

coffee4u said:

You need to do it all, wear masks, practise good hygiene and use social distancing. Going into crowded places especially enclosed places where people shout or sing is foolishness.

Professor Kim Woo-joo from Korea University Guro Hospital

This is the guy to listen to.

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That's Korean, not Japanese. Do you think they are all the same?

Eventually (and by "eventually" I mean in about two months), we will need to have devised a practical method of dealing with life amid a deadly, infectious disease. Two months means nothing in the progression of this disease. Six months means nothing in the progression of this disease.

This is not going to be over, it's not even going to be relieved, until there is an effective vaccine available at Wal-mart, Walgreen, and CVS.

Until then, there will always be another "Patient O" walking the streets...we will be in the same danger in three months or six months or a year as we are today because nothing in the infection environment will have changed.

That life can't practically mean "everyone stay inside permanently." We're getting a lot of impractical advice right now that has the effect of delaying the arrival of an actually practicable state of affairs. We're just fooling around, and the "experts" are blowing smoke up our petticoats just as the president is. They need to stop saying stupid stuff. I heard a doctor saying the other day that alcohol wipes don't work unless the solution stays wet for at least four minutes. Does he not know how alcohol even works? Stupid stuff...from doctors.

As long as people are being urged, effectively, "Don't go outside, ever!" it's going to drive the action of panic buying and hording on one extreme and produce scofflaws at the other extreme.

I believe "mask and wash" is going to be the way of life for at least another two years. It's the only only thing practicable over the course of that much time. I've seen the projections we built for surviving chemical/biological/radiological warfare scenarios, and they work out the same way.

We need factories cranking out N95 masks, gloves, and alcohol wipes like crazy, starting right now, at levels to make them available for everyone. We need to keep pushing the washing regimes.

KarateCowboy said:

Given how quickly all these freedom loving Americans have surrendered their essential liberty for a little temporary security .... from the flu ... I am, in fact, questioning how well I know my nation. At the same time: if they are so obedient, then why would they not obey implementing similar changes?

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What you are describing is a consequence of BABYLON.

Though the OP may be more practical, it isn't tactical. Limiting people traffic works best while moving military and federal resources, passing laws and preparing for war. There is a silent anti-mask law in the States, so no go on masking requirements unless it gets extremely bad. Masks also provide excellent cover, which is bad if you need to identify someone - though we have already crossed over into facial recognition and retina analysis.

Part of this push to distance and communicate remotely and virtually (despite our knowledge of Deep Fakes) is to make people choose their subjugation. Anyone can force someone to do something, but if you can get people to beg for their demise, then they are at fault.

KarateCowboy said:

You know, responses like this are particularly frustrating for several reasons. One is that they contain painfully obvious double-think. The other is that they encourage completely shutting off your brains.

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You're frustrated with a man who is trying to save your life? Um...okay.

For example: OK This guy is a "top expert". He says the "main thing" about the virus is that it lingers about, floating in the air, for hours on end. It comes mainly from aerosols from people's mouths and noses. So, how does he recommend preventing those floating aerosols from infecting you? Is it to wear a mask, which will 1) prevent you from spreading those aerosols and 2) protect you against inhalation of those aerosols?

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Yes. On the 2nd video he distinguishes between two types of mask. For example a regular surgical mask won't likely work, he says, because it mostly protects the patient, not the surgeon (it lets dirty air into the surgeon's breathing space). You would need some kind of professional gas mask, I think he said. If you don't have one, your only other option is to stay away from people, especially stay away from anything public that has closed areas (anything with a roof and doors).

After I made that post, a friend notified me of an article in Seattle Times. 45 of 60 people in a Seattle choir got infected in one evenining. Since they used hand sanitizer and tried to avoid direct physical contact, they suspect that the virus was likely 100% air-transmitted, just like the "top expert" predicted. Here's the report from Seattle Times:

2 dead and 45 sick among 60 who attended choir practice in Mt. Vernon
When a Skagit County choir decided to go ahead with chorale practice on March 10 at the Mount Vernon Presbyterian Church, there had been no reported cases of COVID-19 in the county.

Schools and business remained open, and prohibitions on large gatherings had yet to be announced, according to an article by the Los Angeles Times.

Of the 121 singers told by email of the practice, 60 showed up, the Times reported, and no one had any sign of illness. People refrained from handshakes and hugs.

But now, 45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or have symptoms of coronavirus, at least three have been hospitalized, and two are dead.



(And here's the larger version of the article).
A Mount Vernon choir went ahead with rehearsal. Now dozens have coronavirus and 2 are dead.


Again, sorry to hear that you are "frustrated" with this "top expert". BTW, he wrote a book many years ago telling our nation how to prepare for such a crisis. Problem is, nobody in the federal government paid much attention to what he wrote. Maybe they felt too "frustrated" with him.

KarateCowboy said:

No. Wash your hands, so they are nice and clean as your unprotected nose breaths in the aerosols. Don't touch your face, like your forehead, so your forehead stays clean as your unprotected nose breaths in those aerosols. Oh, and stay six feet away, so you have the illusion of safety, as you walk into that room alone and your unmasked nose and mouth bring in those floating aerosols.

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That's what he said, basically. This guy is in entire agreement with you. In the other vid, he says hand washing is something we tell people so they feel good.

Now, I didn't watch the video.

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Indeed, so now you are rubbishing a well respected epidemiologist that agrees with everything you said. Well done.

I mean, if you'd even made it to line 5 of the post that you are vehemently agreeing with:

"He says this kind of advice has no scientific verification and seems untrue."

RDKirk said:

With both the mask issue and the ventilator issue, "The perfect is the enemy of the good."

Not doing a thing because you might not do it perfectly is not necessarily better than doing it imperfectly.

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I think that depends on the circumstances. If having something on your face actually causes you to touch your face more often than you otherwise would have, then you're in a situation where using a mask imperfectly is worse than not using one at all. Same goes for anyone who derives a false sense of security from the mask and then starts doing stupid things.

That doesn't mean that nobody should wear masks, but I would be neurotically convinced that the thing was contaminated as soon as I tried to put it on.

RDKirk said:

Until then, there will always be another "Patient O" walking the streets...we will be in the same danger in three months or six months or a year as we are today because nothing in the infection environment will have changed.

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In places where it's already run rampant, one thing will have changed: a percentage of people will already have had it and presumably be immune to it, which will hopefully cut down on the speed at which it can spread. I think the goal right now is to buy time for the hospitals and scientists rather than some sort of permanent solution--if they can at least develop antivirals for it, we'll be in a better situation next time around.

I think South Korean style testing might be a good semi-permanent solution also while we're waiting for a vaccine. One of our biggest problems is that we're still largely running blind--if you don't know who has it, the only way to slow it is to behave as if everyone does.

KarateCowboy said:

If you look at earlier posts I cited some tests which show that a nice, tightly fitting, home-made mask can do some good stuff. As far as scratching at your own face, if you look in my OP, I praised the value of deliberately not touching your face. If you put a little effort into making a comfortable mask out of good material it will help dramatically.

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I can believe that a homemade mask made by someone who actually knows what they're doing might be effective. I wouldn't expect that the majority of the population had the arts and crafts skills to pull that off, though.

KarateCowboy said:

I like what they are doing in Tokyo. Even now, they do not have a house arrest order for a dozen millions of people. They have a strong advisement. They are not forcing people to close their businesses and bring their lives to a screeching halt. That is the general message of my OP. Others seemed to have picked up on it. Perhaps try rereading it, taking a fresh look?

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Other countries also just had strong advisories until the situation spun out of control. If Tokyo follows in the footsteps of cities like New York City and Madrid, it will also have to have to take more drastic measures. I'm not sure why you think the current Japanese model is relevant to cities that have more serious problems.

Also, the situation in the United States is not quite house arrest. Nobody's being threatened with five years prison type for noncompliance like in Russia.

Tanj said:

That's what he said, basically. This guy is in entire agreement with you. In the other vid, he says hand washing is something we tell people so they feel good.



Indeed, so now you are rubbishing a well respected epidemiologist that agrees with everything you said. Well done.

I mean, if you'd even made it to line 5 of the post that you are vehemently agreeing with:

"He says this kind of advice has no scientific verification and seems untrue."

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That's not what I got from the video (Though I only watched the long one with Joe Rogan, not the first one). He basically told Rogan all we can really do is keep ourselves as healthy as possible (against obesity hypertension, etc.) and avoid public contact. He said surgical masks are not all that helpful keeping you safe, due to the fact that they don't seal around your face, and that N95 masks are in low supply and needed for healthcare.

Aryeh Jay said:

That's Korean, not Japanese. Do you think they are all the same?

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I am very aware that the Doctor is Korean, what about it? Did you see me mention the Japanese or anyone else? No. What do the Japanese have to do with anything?

I linked to that video of the Korean Doctor because his advice is sensible and Korea has good policies in place. Did you know that everyone who tested negative who came in from overseas was sent home with an app that they had to enter each day with any symptoms they develop while in-home quarantine? They track them for two weeks to be sure that they stay negative. They all know to wash their hands and use a mask. Anyone who tests positive gets tested for free. I think we could learn a lot from how Korea is handling things.

coffee4u said:

I am very aware that the Doctor is Korean, what about it? Did you see me mention the Japanese or anyone else? No. What do the Japanese have to do with anything?

I linked to that video of the Korean Doctor because his advice is sensible and Korea has good policies in place. Did you know that everyone who tested negative who came in from overseas was sent home with an app that they had to enter each day with any symptoms they develop while in-home quarantine? They track them for two weeks to be sure that they stay negative. They all know to wash their hands and use a mask. Anyone who tests positive gets tested for free. I think we could learn a lot from how Korea is handling things.

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That tracking includes if they leave the house,

if they leave their house the ones tracking them get a signal.

46AND2 said:

That's not what I got from the video (Though I only watched the long one with Joe Rogan, not the first one). He basically told Rogan all we can really do is keep ourselves as healthy as possible (against obesity hypertension, etc.) and avoid public contact. He said surgical masks are not all that helpful keeping you safe, due to the fact that they don't seal around your face, and that P95 masks are in low supply and needed for healthcare.

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I read the transcript, since watching internet vids is against my religion. My main point in this context was that the wash your hands, keep 6' distance, wasn't doing any good.

BTW not neccesarily agreeing with him, just recapping his opinion on this...that and the fact that @KarateCowboy is so convinced the world is against him he disagrees with an expert that agrees with him.

Tanj said:

I read the transcript, since watching internet vids is against my religion. My main point in this context was that the wash your hands, keep 6' distance, wasn't doing any good.

BTW not neccesarily agreeing with him, just recapping his opinion on this...that and the fact that @KarateCowboy is so convinced the world is against him he disagrees with an expert that agrees with him.

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Right...what I'm saying is that I don't see how the expert agrees with Karate Cowboy. KC seems to think that washing hands and using masks are the miracle answer. The only part where they agreed (kind of) is the 6' distance not doing much good...only problem is that the expert thinks it ISN'T ENOUGH, where KC thinks it's too much.

46AND2 said:

Right...what I'm saying is that I don't see how the expert agrees with Karate Cowboy. KC seems to think that washing hands and using masks are the miracle answer. The only part where they agreed (kind of) is the 6' distance not doing much good...only problem is that the expert thinks it ISN'T ENOUGH, where KC thinks it's too much.

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My interest in continuing this conversation has run out, sorry.

coffee4u said:

I am very aware that the Doctor is Korean, what about it? Did you see me mention the Japanese or anyone else? No. What do the Japanese have to do with anything?

I linked to that video of the Korean Doctor because his advice is sensible and Korea has good policies in place. Did you know that everyone who tested negative who came in from overseas was sent home with an app that they had to enter each day with any symptoms they develop while in-home quarantine? They track them for two weeks to be sure that they stay negative. They all know to wash their hands and use a mask. Anyone who tests positive gets tested for free. I think we could learn a lot from how Korea is handling things.

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I watched the video you posted. Thanks.

For others that haven't watched it, I advise that do you.
That Dr. has been working with infectious diseases for 30 yrs. He went through SARS, MERS, H1N1, Ebola, etc. and he has authority in his country as well, he's not just some Korean Dr. working under the real experts. I think what he says can be trusted.
He says wearing masks, N95 and K?, work but not regular surgical masks. He talks about aerosol transmission especially when people are shouting or singing.
I wish that I had bought a couple of N95 masks when I could have for my daughter and son-in-law who work with the public. If wishes were horses beggers would ride.

Silmarien said:

I think that depends on the circumstances. If having something on your face actually causes you to touch your face more often than you otherwise would have, then you're in a situation where using a mask imperfectly is worse than not using one at all. Same goes for anyone who derives a false sense of security from the mask and then starts doing stupid things.

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The spectrum is being ignored. "Experts" are presuming that nobody will do things correctly, so they're not bothering to explain how to do things correctly.

That doesn't mean that nobody should wear masks, but I would be neurotically convinced that the thing was contaminated as soon as I tried to put it on.

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When we did MOPP cbw training, we always presumed our masks were contaminated, which of course they would be. Dealing with that is only a matter of knowledge and training.

In places where it's already run rampant, one thing will have changed: a percentage of people will already have had it and presumably be immune to it, which will hopefully cut down on the speed at which it can spread. I think the goal right now is to buy time for the hospitals and scientists rather than some sort of permanent solution--if they can at least develop antivirals for it, we'll be in a better situation next time around.[/quote]

We won't reach that golden "80 percent herd immunity" level for years.

If they make masks, gloves, and alcohol easily available, I can make my life a whole lot safer right now.

Silmarien said:

I can believe that a homemade mask made by someone who actually knows what they're doing might be effective. I wouldn't expect that the majority of the population had the arts and crafts skills to pull that off, though.

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But a moderate level manufacturing company could do that very well...except that they wouldn't get FDA approval for anything less than a top-level product. The perfect is the enemy of the good.

46AND2 said:

and that N95 masks are in low supply and needed for healthcare.

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As in WWII, that is fixed by the government saying, "Who can build this? We have a contract for you!" Although 3M holds the patent, everyone else gets a fat enough contract to pay licensing fees (set up by the government) to 3M and still makes good profit.

46AND2 said:

Right...what I'm saying is that I don't see how the expert agrees with Karate Cowboy. KC seems to think that washing hands and using masks are the miracle answer. The only part where they agreed (kind of) is the 6' distance not doing much good...only problem is that the expert thinks it ISN'T ENOUGH, where KC thinks it's too much.

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Except that is the only answer we can sustain for the next 18 months to two years before there is a vaccine.