We need a mask and wash order, not a stay at home order

[46AND2]

Except that is the only answer we can sustain for the next 18 months to two years before there is a vaccine.

I never suggested shutdowns should be long term. I've also never said that we shouldn't try to improve the hygiene component.

 

[46AND2]

As in WWII, that is fixed by the government saying, "Who can build this? We have a contract for you!" Although 3M holds the patent, everyone else gets a fat enough contract to pay licensing fees (set up by the government) to 3M and still makes good profit.

Of course. But all that takes time to happen...

 

[Hank77]

As in WWII, that is fixed by the government saying, "Who can build this? We have a contract for you!" Although 3M holds the patent, everyone else gets a fat enough contract to pay licensing fees (set up by the government) to 3M and still makes good profit.

I read this today about failed contracts for ventilators over the Bush and Obama admins. until just this past July.
The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.

 

[RDKirk]

I never suggested shutdowns should be long term. I've also never said that we shouldn't try to improve the hygiene component.

My point is that we need to start thinking long term right now, or we'll never be prepared to being operating for the long term.

 

[RDKirk]

Of course. But all that takes time to happen...

It literally takes a week. GM put together an operation in one of their factories within this past week that would have been producing ventilators today...but the president shot it down because he didn't like GM having built an automobile factory in Mexico.

 

[46AND2]

My point is that we need to start thinking long term right now, or we'll never be prepared to being operating for the long term.

IMO, the shutdowns are a near term action that buys us time to establish long term infrastructure.

 

[46AND2]

It literally takes a week. GM put together an operation in one of their factories within this past week that would have been producing ventilators today...but the president shot it down because he didn't like GM having built an automobile factory in Mexico.

Yes. The deal takes a week. The manufacturing and distribution several weeks beyond that.

 

[46AND2]

It literally takes a week. GM put together an operation in one of their factories within this past week that would have been producing ventilators today...but the president shot it down because he didn't like GM having built an automobile factory in Mexico.

But you won't catch me defending Trump's decisions. I agree he isn't doing what SHOULD be done.

 

[RDKirk]

Yes. The deal takes a week. The manufacturing and distribution several weeks beyond that.

No, you missed what I said. GM went from first idea to "start production tomorrow" in a week. They could have started production today of 1,000 ventilators a day. By the end of this week, New York could have had all the ventilators Cuomo estimated they would need.

And GM was willing to do it at cost.

 

[46AND2]

No, you missed what I said. GM went from first idea to "start production tomorrow" in a week. They could have started production today of 1,000 ventilators a day. By the end of this week, New York could have had all the ventilators Cuomo estimated they would need.

And GM was willing to do it at cost.

You're right, I did misread your post. However, it is more than just ventilators we need. Essentially, here is how I think it should be handled (basically, I think we are in agreement here):

Instead of trying to squash the virus when we don't know enough about it to be able to do so, we should use the things we are doing to SLOW the pandemic to prepare for a long term infrastructure. Basically, ASSUME that we cannot defeat it, and only manage it. Don't misinterpret. Of course every effort should still be made to rid us of it, but if we work on the assumption that it will become endemic, we will get to management of it much sooner.

During this time of shutdowns, don't waste it--use whatever effect it has on slowing the thing down.

We should put massive effort into increasing our healthcare capacity. Manufacture, manufacture, manufacture. Ventilators, P95 respirators, efficient and mass produced diagnostic tests, hospital bed capacity, quarantine capacity etc.

Test as many people as possible, with the goal of testing EVERYBODY multiple times as needed. This will help us track clusters and quarantine them before they infect more people and start new clusters.

Likely none of these things will eradicate the virus. What it will do is keep the curve below the healthcare capacity, while simultaneously raising the bar of that capacity. Hopefully enabling us to stay under the bar until such time as a vaccine can be developed.

In addition, businesses should use the opportunity to improve infection prevention measures; things like Zoom meetings, PPE availability, shift offsets, cubicle spacing, etc. Anything they can come up with to try and reduce exposure.

Once these things are underway, we can gradually lift restrictions, and still stay under the capacity bar. The sooner we start, the sooner we can get back to some sort of normalcy.

My issue with the OP is that we don't have the luxury of having the infrastructure in place to avoid the shutdowns at this point. We need the shutdowns to stem the flow enough to establish it. It isn't a reactive measure (or shouldn't be), it's proactive. Unfortunately, I feel like much of the world, and especially the U.S. is using it re-actively, hoping it's THE fix, and we are headed for much worse.

I do appreciate your input on the N95 masks, btw. I have done some reading on them since, and they do appear to be much superior to the surgical masks, which unfortunately is what I see the vast majority of people using, and my opinion of THOSE has not changed much. It appears to be very worth our while to manufacture the N95 en masse.

 

[rambot]

KC, I gotta say I very much agree with the mask issue.
If it become a cultural norm to slip a mask on when you left if you or a loved one was sick, I would guarantee you'd see fewer sickness.

I mean, I imagine there's a study on google scholar.

Oh looky loo!
Science! BAsically...
Face Mask Use and Control of Respiratory Virus Transmission in Households

We found that adherence to mask use significantly reduced the risk for ILI-associated infection, but <50% of participants wore masks most of the time. We concluded that household use of face masks is associated with low adherence and is ineffective for controlling seasonal respiratory disease. However, during a severe pandemic when use of face masks might be greater, pandemic transmission in households could be reduced.

It's KIND of a tricky finding:
"People don't wear masks enough for us to say the data is valid but of those who did wear masks, there was a significant reduction in illness".

So that's cool.

I liked learning that.
Thanks.

 

[RDKirk]

You're right, I did misread your post. However, it is more than just ventilators we need. Essentially, here is how I think it should be handled (basically, I think we are in agreement here):

Instead of trying to squash the virus when we don't know enough about it to be able to do so, we should use the things we are doing to SLOW the pandemic to prepare for a long term infrastructure. Basically, ASSUME that we cannot defeat it, and only manage it. Don't misinterpret. Of course every effort should still be made to rid us of it, but if we work on the assumption that it will become endemic, we will get to management of it much sooner.

During this time of shutdowns, don't waste it--use whatever effect it has on slowing the thing down.

We should put massive effort into increasing our healthcare capacity. Manufacture, manufacture, manufacture. Ventilators, P95 respirators, efficient and mass produced diagnostic tests, hospital bed capacity, quarantine capacity etc.

Test as many people as possible, with the goal of testing EVERYBODY multiple times as needed. This will help us track clusters and quarantine them before they infect more people and start new clusters.

Likely none of these things will eradicate the virus. What it will do is keep the curve below the healthcare capacity, while simultaneously raising the bar of that capacity. Hopefully enabling us to stay under the bar until such time as a vaccine can be developed.

In addition, businesses should use the opportunity to improve infection prevention measures; things like Zoom meetings, PPE availability, shift offsets, cubicle spacing, etc. Anything they can come up with to try and reduce exposure.

Once these things are underway, we can gradually lift restrictions, and still stay under the capacity bar. The sooner we start, the sooner we can get back to some sort of normalcy.

My issue with the OP is that we don't have the luxury of having the infrastructure in place to avoid the shutdowns at this point. We need the shutdowns to stem the flow enough to establish it. It isn't a reactive measure (or shouldn't be), it's proactive. Unfortunately, I feel like much of the world, and especially the U.S. is using it re-actively, hoping it's THE fix, and we are headed for much worse.

I do appreciate your input on the N95 masks, btw. I have done some reading on them since, and they do appear to be much superior to the surgical masks, which unfortunately is what I see the vast majority of people using, and my opinion of THOSE has not changed much. It appears to be very worth our while to manufacture the N95 en masse.

I do pretty much agree with you in what you've said here.

The frustrating thing is that the country is not using the time being bought by these restrictions.

The idea being sold is that the restrictions themselves will completely fix the situation...and in only a few weeks. The medical experts--through what they're not saying--appear to be telling the same story as Trump, in that the disease will "magically disappear" with the coming of summer.

At my age, things cannot go back to normal in my life until my wife and I can take the vaccine. Until then, as long as any significant percentage of people are carrying the disease ("significant" being any more than 10% or so), our lives must be a regimen of mask and wash.

I would guess that among other things, manufacture of N95 masks should ramp up to making 200 million masks available daily before things can go back to any semblance of normal. And I don't think that's impossible, if the president would push the kind of contracting that the US practiced during WWII.

 

[wing2000]

I was listening to this video blog from a NY Dr on the front lines and he suggested that wearing a mask helps discipline one not to touch one's face. His suggestion is to wear a mask every time one leaves the home.

 

[rjs330]

I read this today about failed contracts for ventilators over the Bush and Obama admins. until just this past July.
The U.S. Tried to Build a New Fleet of Ventilators. The Mission Failed.

Gee it seems that Obama failed to prepare for this. He had 8 years and did not get it to happen. Major fail.

Of course I am showing a bit of sarcasm here. But if I was to take the same road that many have done with Trump, then we can blame Obama for not making sure we had the ventilators. I could use the exact same arguments. But I suppose if I did people on the left would defend him, most likely with some of the same arguments uses to defend Trump.

So to be consistent, I don't blame Obama for not having enough ventilators. I just wish the left would give Trump the same consideration.

 

[jacks]

Wearing a mask just seems like common sense. I'm sure when there is no longer a shortage, it will be recommended by the CDC. I went shopping today and wore a mask (Level 3 not N95, don't have one.) and was glad I did, it was like most people weren't even aware of the term "social distancing".

 

[KarateCowboy]

You're frustrated with a man who is trying to save your life? Um...okay.

Do you seriously think that's what I mean?

That's what he said, basically. This guy is in entire agreement with you. In the other vid, he says hand washing is something we tell people so they feel good.

OK well then cool. Like I said, it's possible that the write-up is not accurate of what he said. That's why I used the word "IF". I guess they don't have that word in Australia. Or the word "hanky".

 

[RDKirk]

Gee it seems that Obama failed to prepare for this. He had 8 years and did not get it to happen. Major fail.

Of course I am showing a bit of sarcasm here. But if I was to take the same road that many have done with Trump, then we can blame Obama for not making sure we had the ventilators. I could use the exact same arguments. But I suppose if I did people on the left would defend him, most likely with some of the same arguments uses to defend Trump.

So to be consistent, I don't blame Obama for not having enough ventilators. I just wish the left would give Trump the same consideration.

Trump's blame is not for failing to predict the threat, but for denying it.

 

[RDKirk]

The 3M company is the leading manufacturer of N95 masks, and they're sextupling their output to 100 million per month. However, that may be just enough for the medical community alone.

3M Partners With Ford to Sextuple Respirators, Aims to Double N95 Mask Production From Previous Target

Over the next 18 months, the CDC will need to stop the lie that N95 masks don't help and get honest about prescribing a practicable mask and wash regimen until a vaccine is available.

But mask and wash for just the American population alone will require, I estimate, 100 million masks per day, unless they develop sanitizable masks that can be reused. Or they could go to reusable plastic mask frames with replaceable filter inserts, which ought to be much simpler and quicker to make than whole filter masks.

 

[Aryeh Jay]

Trump's blame is not for failing to predict the threat, but for denying it.

His cheerleader’s didn’t help either.

 

[RDKirk]

I noted that another kind of mask, the KN95, appears to be available, imported from China. Just a bit of
Googling shows that this is a slightly different design from the 3M N95 design (apparently lacking the one-way exhaust valve to make breathing easier and having ear-loop straps instead of dual behind-the-neck straps).

The 3M company does, however, state that the KN95 mask is equivalent to their own. The problem is that apparently the FDA is refusing to allow them to be imported.

Coronavirus Cases Have Surged, But The US Is Refusing To Take The World’s Most Available Masks