Basically, this seems to have the same warhead that SARS (also a coronavirus from 2003) had (maybe a little worse, but not too much). Unfortunately, this incarnation is very contagious and people can spread it even when they are not showing symptoms. But here's the kicker:
(study of 41 cases)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext
(study of 99 cases)
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fulltext
It's not the Black Death - it's 50 Shades of Grey.
Let me explain. Overall, SARS did about 8000 infections and 800 kills, about 10%.
And, it seems, this has the same or a similar warhead.
Doesn't sound too, too terrible, right?
Well, it depends on your age.
Because with these coronaviruses, that 10% is not distributed evenly, or, rather it IS distributed evenly, from a certain point moving forward. It starts roughly at age 25.
This is great news if you are 25 or less, you'll basically get a mild cold, maybe feel a little bad, but it really won't kill you, probably won't even get you hospitalized. And you'll infect more people until it's out of your system; you'll basically be a Typhoid Mary for a little while.
If you are
above 25 though, there's a problem. Most of the time, you'll still just be a carrier - but with SARS (and I guess this coronavirus too since it seems to be following the same distribution) there was some kind of reaction of the immune system to the virus that actually did the damage and took you out. And (I guess) immune systems get crankier and crankier the older people get. So, while the OVERALL fatality risk across a population is 10%, your PERSONAL fatality risk is (roughly):
Your age in years - 25.
This makes a BIG difference, especially for someone like me, 48 yrs old - suddenly there is something circulating AT LEAST as contagious as Spanish Influenza, possibly even invisibly showing no symptoms, younger people carrying it and not feeling that bad...
...and it has about a 25% of killing me if I get it.
Just like this guy, infectious disease expert, in 2003. He was 46, a couple years younger than me.
Carlo Urbani - Wikipedia
So it really is 50 Shades of Grey.
And the older you are, the darker your shade will be.
It's funny, I hear people saying 'well gee the US flu is really off to a banner start this year'
... are they SURE all those flu deaths are normal flu? Most of them probably are... I'm not so sure that ALL of them are.
This,
if it circulates globally for a sustained year, and I don't see good reason it can't, will make some MAJOR societal changes in the age demographics of the planet. Whatever problem you *thought* you had with the BabyBoomers is gone - 1/2 of them won't make it.
People like me in the 45-55 range, 1/4 gone.
35-45, 1/5 gone.
Politically, do you think we would have an election if this was occurring? Everyone marching in to cast ballots? Do you think we'd have a president? Most politicians, presidents and candidates are old. This virus doesn't care about what side of the aisle you are on. I will absolutely laugh at anyone stupid enough to hold or attend a campaign rally in the middle of this later in the year. I'm sure there will be someone.
Most of your politicians and military commanders, I would note (and not just in our country, but in ALL countries) are on the wrong side of the age scale and very vulnerable to this. Interestingly, most of the actual military soldiers? Young. Under 25, I imagine. But they will lose a lot of their experienced chain of command. In fact,
they are probably the ones that will infect them.
Not sure what the result of this will be if I am correct, or if we will get to this point. But this is truly an interesting one. This has the potential to be a societal game changer.
For the reasons stated above, once I realized what was happening and the level of personal threat to me (which I had underestimated), I stocked food supplies and N-95 masks 3 days ago. I'll keep doing this and making other preparations until I see the threat decreasing rather than increasing. I don't think it's in my area yet, but I'm going to start acting like it might be and avoid mass transport like subways, fast food drive throughs or similar, start tightening things down, basically remove a few potentially dangerous behaviours from my lifestyle every day because it likely will be here soon if it's not already, and it's not going to announce itself for a couple of weeks with symptoms until it has already circulated. If the situation doesn't improve I plan to begin telecommuting to work this month and slowly increase other measures and preparations.
Good luck everyone
