The ambitious Gaza agreement, which was celebrated as a foreign policy triumph for President Donald Trump, is in danger of failing due to a lack of planning and realpolitik feasibility. Documents originating from an internal security forum speak of a ‘strategic gap’ between the announced ceasefire and a sustainable peace agreement.
According to internal sources, key prerequisites are missing: no "Palestinian" partner capable of acting, no occupied ‘peace council’ structure, no binding coordination between the nations involved. A high-ranking participant in the meeting of CENTCOM and the new civil-military coordination centre in Kiryat Gat summed it up dramatically: ‘Everyone is talking about peace from 40,000 feet up, but no one knows who is supposed to stand in the dust below and implement.'
Internal presentations show that Israel currently still controls around 53 per cent of Gaza's territory, while 95 per cent of the population lives in areas that are de facto outside Israeli control. According to the figures, this is precisely where the terrorist organisation Hamas has already redeployed over 7,000 security forces and is exploiting the power vacuum following the ceasefire to restore its structures.
Meanwhile, the establishment of a civil administration is not progressing. Neither the PA nor independent local actors have the legitimacy or resources to take on this responsibility.
Currently, there is no clear leadership structure, no defined distribution of roles and, above all, no countries that would actually be willing to send troops for the planned international security mission.
According to internal notes, Indonesia, Azerbaijan, Pakistan and Turkey have signalled their ‘fundamental willingness’ to participate, but are demanding an official UN mandate and are meeting with scepticism from Israel, particularly in the case of Turkey. Most countries are willing to send money, but not soldiers.
There is uncertainty in Gaza, mistrust in Israel and frustration in Washington. Military stability may have been achieved, but political peace is still a long way off. Without capable partners, clear responsibilities and sustainable strategies, the ceasefire threatens to become a dangerous limbo: too calm for war, too unstable for peace.
The agreement with Gaza was intended to demonstrate that American diplomacy can function without endless peace processes, but rather through clear power relations. However, it is now apparent that power can silence weapons, but it cannot build civil society.
If the US and Israel cannot find a credible administrative framework, other forces, Iran, Qatar, Hamas, will fill the void. The success or failure of this agreement will thus become a touchstone for the entire regional security order.