...and let's say Maduro decides to quit under the US pressure and flee the country. What happens then?
A few options were mentioned…
A group of senior Venezuelan government officials, led by Vice President Delcy Rodríguez and her brother Jorge, who is president of the National Assembly, have quietly promoted a series of initiatives in recent months aimed at presenting themselves to Washington as a “more acceptable” alternative to Nicolás Maduro’s regime, according to people with direct knowledge of the talks.
The proposals, funneled through intermediaries in Qatar, sought to persuade sectors of the U.S. government that a “Madurismo without Maduro” could enable a peaceful transition in Venezuela—preserving political stability without dismantling the ruling apparatus.
According to the sources, Qatari mediators presented to the U.S. two formal proposals this year, one in April and another in September. Both outlined potential governing mechanisms without Maduro in power. In those scenarios, Delcy Rodríguez would serve as the institutional continuity figure, while retired Gen. Miguel Rodríguez Torres, who is currently in exile and is not related to the Rodriguez siblings, would head a transitional government.
The central argument, the sources said, was that the Rodríguez siblings represent a “more palatable” version of so-called chavismo — the socialist ideology named for deceased leader Hugo Chávez — for Washington, since neither has been indicted on narcotrafficking charges by U.S. courts. However, former regime officials— whose accounts have been used by U.S. prosecutors in cases linked to the so-called Cartel of the Suns—have implicated both siblings in logistical support and money laundering operations. Sources told the Miami Herald the offers though Qatar were made with Maduro’s approval.
Read more at:
https://www.miamiherald.com/news/na...venezuela/article312516272.html#storylink=cpy
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How Venezuela's Nobel Prize Winner built a high-stakes alliance with Trump
WASHINGTON, Oct 28 (Reuters) - On January 6, 2025, four members of Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado’s team piled onto a couch in a Capitol Hill office, across from Mike Waltz, who was soon to become Donald Trump’s national security adviser. Machado made a cameo via video call from her hideout in Venezuela.
During the meeting, David Smolansky, who runs Machado’s office in Washington, explained how Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua was controlled by Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, according to two people present who described the meeting. Waltz scribbled notes the whole time, they said.
The meeting, details of which have not been previously reported, was part of a high-stakes gamble by
Nobel Peace Prize-winner Machado to align with hawks in the Trump team who argue that Maduro – through links to criminal gangs – represents a direct threat to U.S. national security, despite U.S. intelligence reports casting doubt on that view.
Reuters conversations with more than 50 sources, including former and current U.S. officials, members of the Venezuelan opposition and informants to U.S. security agencies, provide new details about efforts by members of Machado’s team to help the Trump administration build the case for an aggressive stance against the Venezuelan government, despite worries about blowback from Trump’s policies on Venezuelan immigrants living in the United States.
Opposition leaders held multiple meetings with the Trump team before and after his inauguration, seeking increased pressure on Maduro. Allies contributed research for reports supporting the stance. Team members fed details about Maduro and the gangs to security agencies, the sources said.
The reporting suggests the opposition lent legitimacy to the idea that Maduro controls Tren de Aragua, advocating for the theory publicly and in private, seeing its interests align with the Trump administration. Reuters could not establish whether the campaign influenced Trump’s policies.
In the months after the Waltz meeting, Washington designated Tren de Aragua as a terrorist organization threatening the United States and under Maduro’s control. It has offered a $50 million reward for his arrest.
Machado is unwavering in her support for Trump's militarized strategy, saying Maduro should step down to prevent escalation.
A declassified U.S. National Intelligence Council report from April that examined the Venezuelan government’s ties to Tren de Aragua found that while some Venezuelan officials “may cooperate with TDA for financial gain,” Maduro is not directing the group’s U.S. operations.
Reuters could not find independent evidence that Maduro controlled Tren de Aragua, or was using it to invade the United States.
Within Machado’s team, some have wrestled with what one member of the opposition-in-exile called an “impossible dilemma.” Because of Tren de Aragua, Trump has applied the kind of pressure on Maduro the opposition has long called for.
But, to support his immigration goals, he simultaneously vilifies Venezuelans in the United States as violent members of the gang.
Machado was largely silent when Trump stripped immigration protections for hundreds of thousands of people, began deporting thousands back to Venezuela, and sent alleged members of Tren de Aragua to a mega-prison in El Salvador, where several claimed they were tortured.
She says the boat strikes, which kill Venezuelan citizens without trial, are a U.S. national security decision. The bombings have killed at least 38 people, many of whom Washington has suggested were Venezuelans or working for TDA. U.N. human rights experts described them as extrajudicial killings.
Machado's team understands they risk being accused of betrayal by compatriots, but sees allegiance to Trump as the best way to achieve democracy, said two of the opposition sources.
Despite the potential pitfalls, “the bigger picture” is to remove Maduro, said one of the sources.
If it works “she will be the patron saint of Venezuela,” said David Smilde, a Venezuela expert at Tulane University. If nothing happens, he said, she risks losing support from Venezuelans desperate for change and frustrated with the broken promises of a long line of opposition leaders.
And if U.S. military action against Maduro leads to chaos, she will be blamed “for huge destruction inside the country and huge collateral damage outside, he said.
“It’s a high risk strategy,” he said.
Ahead of Trump taking office on January 20, Machado’s people were in touch with Florida Republicans, including then-Senator Marco Rubio, as part of their campaign to lobby for more pressure on Maduro, two of the opposition sources said, without providing further details.
Rubio, who has the additional role of Trump’s national security adviser after Waltz left the post, argued as early as 2018 that military action might be justified in Venezuela. Once a bitter Trump rival and now one of his closest allies, Rubio is a central figure shaping U.S. foreign policy, especially in the Americas.
A source close to Trump administration policymakers on Venezuela said they believed Machado and her team had little sway over Rubio’s views.
However, the meetings helped bolster the administration’s assessment of Maduro's links to Tren de Aragua and the threat it and Cartel de los Soles, another criminal gang, pose to U.S. security, the source said. Machado has left little doubt, both in public and private, of her belief that outside military pressure could be useful against Maduro, the source said.
Rubio’s support for the Venezuelan opposition is longstanding and public. He previously championed U.S. backing for its leaders during a 2019 attempt to oust Maduro.
Along with Waltz, he signed a letter in 2024 nominating Machado for the Nobel Peace Prize. In April, writing fulsome praise of Machado to support her inclusion on Time Magazine’s list of influential people, he said they met a decade ago.
Even before Trump started focusing on Tren de Aragua during his 2024 campaign, Ivan Simonovis, an outside security consultant for Machado’s team, alleged in media appearances the gang was sent by the Maduro government to destabilize the United States, without providing evidence.
That argument would later feature in the Trump administration’s invocation of the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport alleged members of the gang without due process, which also stated that Maduro was wielding the gang to destabilize the United States, without providing evidence.
Simonovis, a former Venezuelan police chief, told Reuters he provided information and contacts he had to U.S. security services, cautioning that the information was based on intelligence from Venezuelan security officials and people linked to the gang, but that it was up to the agencies to do a full investigation. He declined to put Reuters in touch with the informants.
Later in 2024, exiled former Colonel Gustavo Arocha, who is close to Machado’s team, fed reporting into research on the gang, including for a paper by right-leaning think tank the Heritage Foundation that called the gang a proxy for Maduro, said a third U.S. official.
The report’s author, Joseph Humire, has since been appointed U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for Western Hemisphere Affairs. Humire and Arocha declined to comment. The Heritage Foundation said it stood firmly behind its research.
Between January and April, Machado’s team held at least eight meetings with Waltz, Rubio, then-Special Advisor Mauricio Claver-Carone and Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, according to four sources with knowledge of the meetings. Claver-Carone is a Cuban-American like Rubio who has long supported military action against Venezuela, which helps prop up Cuba’s communist system. He declined to comment for this story.
“We have a constant and fluid communication with the administration and Congress,” Smolansky said, in response to questions about the January meeting and other subsequent contacts with the administration.
~bella
