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a “dagger through the heart of climate-change religion”

Akita Suggagaki

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The Barbarian

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As we record hottest weather in history.
Every dictator comes to believe that controlling the narrative controls reality. That's why dictatorships tend to implode.
 
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Tuur

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As we record hottest weather in history.
Let me see if I can post this chart. I keep up with temperature and precipitation for a location for work reasons, with this particular data set going back to the 1940s. With the hot days this year, started wondering how many days we had over 100 degrees Fahrenheit and how that stacked up to other years. This chart is from a resulting query, and has data through July 31, 2025, for that particular location. Let's see if this works:

Days.jpg


Maybe that's not too tiny.

The 1950s is a surprise. Really, most of it is because while I lived from a lot of these hot days, the particulars of how many were above 100 degrees Fahrenheit were forgotten. As you can see, the days we've had this year are greater than last year's, but not 2019. Note the downward trend.

This is not what we'd expect, not when each year is touted as "The Hottest on Record." You'd expect the chart to show an increasing number of days per year over 100 degrees Fahrenheit, but that's not what the data shows.
 
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The Barbarian

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Let me see if I can post this chart. I keep up with temperature and precipitation for a location for work reasons, with this particular data set going back to the 1940s. With the hot days this year, started wondering how many days we had over 100 degrees Fahrenheit and how that stacked up to other years.
That's not global mean temperatures. That is, to accurately measure the rise or fall in Earth's temperature, we need to average the temperature over the Earth for an entire year. Here's that data:
1754271994344.png

Notice that several independent agencies came up with data that very closely agree.
 

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FireDragon76

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As we record hottest weather in history.

That's why I'm seriously looking into moving up north... probably to the Rust Belt, to escape rising temperatures and hurricanes.

Vote for clowns. Expect a circus. And alot of disasters.
 
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ozso

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That's why I'm seriously looking into moving up north... probably to the Rust Belt, to escape rising temperatures and hurricanes.

Vote for clowns. Expect a circus. And alot of disasters.
It's been a relatively cool summer here in the Seattle area.

I like to check the temperature in Las Vegas, NV where I lived many years to see the difference. Which is fairly significant. 71 F here and 105 F there.

However 105 F there in August is very typical in my experience going back to when I first lived there in 1978.
 
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Tuur

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That's not global mean temperatures. That is, to accurately measure the rise or fall in Earth's temperature, we need to average the temperature over the Earth for an entire year. Here's that data:
How confident are you in that data and why? I'm confident in what I posted because I know the location of the station and note the data for each day in two databases: Microsoft Access for work and LibreOffice Base for myself. And it's not following what we are told is happening. Neither is another location I keep data on, but it doesn't go as far back as the one I posted days above 100 Fahrenheit from. So that's two data sets that disagreeing with what we're told. If you want two points separated by a long period of time, a high temperature noted by a colonial governor in Savannah, Georgia tied the all-time high set in 1986. Two data points do not a data set make, but it's interesting that an observed high from before the United States existed matches one well over two and a quarter centuries later.

Something's not lining up. I checked and there was a study done in the 18th Century on thermometer accuracy, so the thermometer wasn't off. Nor, from his description, did he have it by a heat source or in the sunshine. Nor is the data I'm collecting lining up, and one of them should even show a heat island effect. So who's off? Two recording stations and a thermometer in the 1700s or the global mean temperature?

You can, of course, dismiss the data I've cited as not global mean, But then there's the problem of explaining why it's not following what we are told is a global trend, especially since we're dealing with more than one site.
 
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Tuur

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That's why I'm seriously looking into moving up north... probably to the Rust Belt, to escape rising temperatures and hurricanes.

Vote for clowns. Expect a circus. And alot of disasters.

Speaking of Hurricanes, take a look at this:

Historical Hurricane Tracks

Put in "Atlantic Basin" and you'll see the track of every recorded hurricane. Then pause and reflect that this only goes back to after the mid 19th Century. You won't find the hurricane Aaron Burr rode out on St Simon's Island, Georgia.

Now look at this:

Pecan - Wikipedia

Scroll down and look at the natural range map on the right side. Pecans do well across much of the Southern US, but surprisingly don't withstand high winds all that well. Have seen that all my life but it didn't sink in until the damage from Helene, and that had me looking for the last big hurricane to come through, and then the discovery that those groves I saw were all set out after than hurricane.

Why hurricanes and pecans? Because of that natural range map. Compare that to the recorded hurricane tracks. Since pecans do well across the Southeast, I suspect something else limited the natural range, and that something may well be hurricanes. If that's the case, the natural range of pecans might tell us something about hurricanes prior to about the mid 19th Century.
 
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ozso

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What stands out to many is being told to completely ignore our yearly experience with the weather and go strictly by what the data says. If the weather is perfectly normal and the same as usual throughout the year, but the data says it's significantly different and awful, that's what we're supposed to go by.
 
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The Barbarian

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How confident are you in that data and why?
I told you why.
Notice that several independent agencies came up with data that very closely agree.

In science, that's very strong confirmation.

I'm confident in what I posted because I know the location of the station and note the data for each day in two databases: Microsoft Access for work and LibreOffice Base for myself. And it's not following what we are told is happening.
Data has to be accurate. And it has to actually measure what you propose to measure. Your graph doesn't measure average world temperature. It appears to be a graph of the number of over-100 degree days in the United States. But it's not identified.

It's like you noticing that your house is getting warmer and warmer, but someone says that the back bedroom has more moments when it's much cooler.

So that's two data sets that disagreeing with what we're told.
Like your back bedroom disagreeing with the observation that the house as a whole is getting warmer. HVAC guys can tell you that there are a number of reasons for this. I had one room like that myself. It's important to make sure that your measurements are accurate and that they measure that which you want to measure. BTW, here's the graph of average temperature in the United States, using presumably the same stations you're mentioning:
1754320647594.png


What area, exactly, does your graph represent?

It's been a relatively cool summer here in the Seattle area.
I have two sons living there. Both say it's been unusually hot last month.

Something's not lining up.
Yeah. First, your graph doesn't measure average temperature. And second, it appears to be for a local area. Can you show us the source, so we can check that out?

You can, of course, dismiss the data I've cited as not global mean
Not measuring the thing you propose to measure will produce errors, yes.

But then there's the problem of explaining why it's not following what we are told is a global trend, especially since we're dealing with more than one site.
Let's look at your measurements for the United States:

  • The frequency of extremely hot days has increased since 1970 in 195 U.S. locations analyzed by Climate Central.
  • About 71% (139) of these locations now experience at least 7 additional extremely hot days each year than in 1970.

Which is very significant.

So who's off?
We'll know that when we see the source and verify what area is measured. Even by your criteria, the U.S. is hotter than it was in the past.
 
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The Barbarian

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Speaking of Hurricanes, take a look at this:

Historical Hurricane Tracks
Here's a graph of minor and major hurricanes for the US:
1754321687563.png

As you probably know, climatologists did not predict more hurricanes, but they did predict that we'd see more major hurricanes and those with increasing strength. Which is what the data show.

Why hurricanes and pecans? Because of that natural range map. Compare that to the recorded hurricane tracks. Since pecans do well across the Southeast,
I grew up in Iowa. We had pecan trees. There are people who grow them there for a living. However, actual recordings of increased hurricane strength nicely matches the increase in Atlantic and Gulf temperatures. And of course, hurricane strength is a function of the water temperature.
1754323060279.gif
 
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The Barbarian

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What stands out to many is being told to completely ignore our yearly experience with the weather and go strictly by what the data says.
Yearly weather is data. How do you think climatologists determine climate change? Yes, it's true that weather is not climate for the same reason your annual income is not GDP. Someone has lied to you about this issue, or more likely knew less than you do about it.

If we want to find the average height for students in a school, we don't ignore the heights of each student. Those are the data that allow us to find the average height.

What exactly is climate?

Whereas weather refers to short-term changes in the atmosphere, climate describes what the weather is like over a long period of time in a specific area.

If the weather is perfectly normal and the same as usual throughout the year, but the data says it's significantly different and awful
Perhaps you don't know what "data" are. What do you think they are?
 
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ozso

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Yearly weather is data. How do you think climatologists determine climate change? Yes, it's true that weather is not climate for the same reason your annual income is not GDP. Someone has lied to you about this issue, or more likely knew less than you do about it.

If we want to find the average height for students in a school, we don't ignore the heights of each student. Those are the data that allow us to find the average height.

What exactly is climate?

Whereas weather refers to short-term changes in the atmosphere, climate describes what the weather is like over a long period of time in a specific area.


Perhaps you don't know what "data" are. What do you think they are?
I mean personal experience. If you've lived in a place 20-30 years and the weather is the same as always, you're supposed to disregard that and go by the data via jagged lines on a chart. It's quite reminiscent of, "The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command". George Orwell, 1984
 
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ozso

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I have two sons living there. Both say it's been unusually hot last month.
I'm going to have to strongly disagree with them. There was brief heatwave that lasted three or four days. The rest of the time it was quite cool for July. I live on the 3rd story of a bulding with no A/C and there's only been two or three days that were hot and sweaty this summer. I can remember much hotter Julys back in the 1990s. I love cool weather, so I've been relishing it.
 
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The Barbarian

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ozso

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Western Washington swelters under hottest temps of the year

Jul 14, 2025, 11:40 AM
Yeah, that was the brief heatwave in the middle of the month I mentioned. The 10 day forecast from that point forward was for higher temperatures than we actually ended up having. It even got downright chilly for a while. I work at night, outdoors to a degree, and I had to wear warmer clothing.
 
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The Barbarian

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I mean personal experience.
Turns out, objective evidence is more reliable than personal recall.

1754329009575.png

The jagged line is the weather. The trend line is the climate.

1754329468914.png


Anyone living there during those decades would have noticed with their eyes and ears the weather reports. But if your leaders tell you otherwise, you might be willing to trust them more than the reality.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command". George Orwell, 1984
 
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ozso

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Turns out, objective evidence is more reliable than personal recall.

View attachment 368034
The jagged line is the weather. The trend line is the climate.

View attachment 368035

Anyone living there during those decades would have noticed with their eyes and ears the weather reports. But if your leaders tell you otherwise, you might be willing to trust them more than the reality.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command". George Orwell, 1984
It's your leaders telling you to believe the world is coming to an end If you don't vote for them. "The climate is going to kill you all unless something is done about it, and we're the only ones who will do something about it" - DNC.
 
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Hentenza

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Turns out, objective evidence is more reliable than personal recall.

View attachment 368034
The jagged line is the weather. The trend line is the climate.

View attachment 368035

Anyone living there during those decades would have noticed with their eyes and ears the weather reports. But if your leaders tell you otherwise, you might be willing to trust them more than the reality.

"The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command". George Orwell, 1984
Did you factor in the urban heat island effect to your conclusion? Population and urban growth?
 
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The Barbarian

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Did you factor in the urban heat island effect to your conclusion? Population and urban growth?
Yes. Reality incorporates everything that's real. Do cites add to the warming of the Earth? Yes. So does an increase in population. These things generally lead to more carbon released in the atmosphere. The fact of global warming incorporates the fact of the things you mentioned.
 
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