Iran Erupts: Crowds Burn US Flags and Swear to Ayatollah

[Postvieww]

Continued negotiation which is what Trump promised in his campaign. He explicitly stated that he would not escalate violence and would get Iran to give up their nuclear ambition at the bargaining table. Was he lying?

Trump tried that and Iran was unwilling. No, he was not lying but may have miss judged Iran’s resolve to attain nukes.

 

[Job 33:6]

What source do you have saying that Iran was working on a nuclear bomb or even being close? The US intelligence clearly stated that they have no evidence.

Iran has been enriching uranium to 60% in a bunker 300 feet below ground. They had their Amad project additionally exposed. What other intentions would these events serve?

Has anyone ever heard of any civilian use for 60% enriched Uranium?

 

[trophy33]

Iran has been enriching uranium to 60% in a bunker 300 feet below ground. They had their Amad project additionally exposed. What other intentions would these events serve?

Has anyone ever heard of any civilian use for 60% enriched Uranium?

Research. We have no evidence that they were literally building/assembling a nuclear bomb.

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Iran has been enriching uranium to 60% in a bunker 300 feet below ground. They had their Amad project additionally exposed. What other intentions would these events serve?

It serves as a deterrent by demonstrating that they have the capability to build a nuclear weapon if they want to

 

[Hans Blaster]

Iran has been enriching uranium to 60% in a bunker 300 feet below ground. They had their Amad project additionally exposed. What other intentions would these events serve?

Has anyone ever heard of any civilian use for 60% enriched Uranium?

If you're going to use your weapons program to negotiate a deal, then it needs to be credible, but not directly threatening. Unfortunately for them, the Israeli PM puppetmastered an attack on Iran.

 

[Job 33:6]

Research. We have no evidence that they were literally building/assembling a nuclear bomb.

What do you make of the international community acknowledging the legitimacy of project Amad?

AMAD Project - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

And you think they're enriching uranium to nuclear weapons grade for the purposes of scientific research? What research is this?

 

[RocksInMyHead]

What do you make of the international community acknowledging the legitimacy of project Amad?

AMAD Project - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

Considering that it was terminated in 2003, over 20 years ago, I'm not sure what relevance it has to the current situation.

 

[2PhiloVoid]

we're talking about how people will blindly support any entity that's against the entities that US conservatives like, even if said entities embody the anthesis of the rest of their stated values.


View attachment 366654


That's why there are leftist protestors out in the streets waving Iranian flags now and chanting "Iran makes us proud"


The same group that will hold "Justice for <Insert LGBTQ person who was victim of hate crime>", also hold vigils for Iranian leaders...
View attachment 366656

...and they really don't see the irony in that?

That's definitely ironic. Painfully so, in fact.

 

[Job 33:6]

If you're going to use your weapons program to negotiate a deal, then it needs to be credible, but not directly threatening. Unfortunately for them, the Israeli PM puppetmastered an attack on Iran.

Who's to say that they would go 99% of the way to developing a nuclear weapon (for negotiating purposes), but then would mysteriously never make one?

 

[Job 33:6]

Considering that it was terminated in 2003, over 20 years ago, I'm not sure what relevance it has to the current situation.

It identifies intent and interest. And considering that in addition to ongoing enrichment of uranium beyond any known civilian purposes, in heavily fortified bunkers hundreds of feet underground, without international inspections?

That is a problem. The efforts never truly ceased.

Also, 20 years isn't long. Additionally, activities are considered to have continued up to 2009. "Iran prior to the end of 2003 as a coordinated effort, and some activities took place after 2003 [but] these activities did not advance beyond feasibility and scientific studies, and the acquisition of certain relevant technical competences and capabilities. The Agency has no credible indications of activities in Iran relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device after 2009"

2009 is only 16 years ago. People only change so quickly.

 

[Job 33:6]

Hey guys, I know we had a nuclear weapons program that we still deny to this day, I know that we had continued researching nuclear weapons up to 2009, but you can just disregard our 300 foot underground fortified secret nuclear program bunker. No inspections please. Yes, we are enriching uranium to 60% down there, we know that there are no known civilian purposes for uranium enrichment to this level, but don't worry, it's just for scientific research only....

Oh by the way, the tens of thousands of centrifuges are necessary for this peaceful research. Don't ask too many questions. Thanks.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Who's to say that they would go 99% of the way to developing a nuclear weapon (for negotiating purposes), but then would mysteriously never make one?

60% enrichment isn't weapons grade. It takes a couple months to make the gap.

 

[Job 33:6]

60% enrichment isn't weapons grade. It takes a couple months to make the gap.

That's the point. It's also not civilian grade. It's pushing the line. Why would they do this if not to inch closer to that gap? Is the goal to load up so that you're 2 months out, then at any given time seal the deal? Or do you think they'd go 99% of the way and say "ah, we never actually intended to do anything with it, despite the investment".

This is like the sermon on the Mount. Well, we didn't actually commit adultery. We just went 99% of the way. But we didn't actually break the law.

Who would believe them that they'd never pull that final trigger?

 

[RocksInMyHead]

It identifies intent and interest.

It identifies past intent and interest.

And considering that in addition to ongoing enrichment of uranium beyond any known civilian purposes, in heavily fortified bunkers hundreds of feet underground, without international inspections?

Again, what good is a weapons program as a deterrent if you can't demonstrate some level of feasibility?

That is a problem. The efforts never truly ceased.

Their efforts to enrich uranium haven't ceased. However, they appear to have ceased trying to enrich it to full weapons grade, and they also appear to have ceased development of all the ancillary systems required to create a fully-functional weapon.

Also, 20 years isn't long. Additionally, activities are considered to have continued up to 2009. "Iran prior to the end of 2003 as a coordinated effort, and some activities took place after 2003 [but] these activities did not advance beyond feasibility and scientific studies, and the acquisition of certain relevant technical competences and capabilities. The Agency has no credible indications of activities in Iran relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device after 2009"

2009 is only 16 years ago. People only change so quickly.

Sure, but then why now? It's been 20 years, or 16 years, or however you want to frame it. Without any new evidence of continued development, that previous work will just get further and further out of date.

That's the point. It's also not civilian grade. It's pushing the line. Why would they do this if not to inch closer to that gap?

This has been explained to you multiple times by multiple people and in multiple ways. If you disagree, that's fine, but personal incredulity isn't really a valid argument.

 

[Job 33:6]

It identifies past intent and interest.

Again, what good is a weapons program as a deterrent if you can't demonstrate some level of feasibility?

Using a nuclear weapons program as a deterrent is in and of itself a problem.

If someone goes 99% of the way to committing adultery, you don't say "ah, they did nothing wrong, it was never going to happen. They just wanted to test the waters a bit.

Maybe they committed adultery in the past. They've been doing research on it, they had a secret program on it. They have a fortified underground bunker on it and invest lots of money into it.

But don't kid yourself guys, they'd never actually do it...

No offense, but what are you guys talking about? The whole point is to keep the world off their backs so that they can do it in secrecy. That's why they're enriching to weapons grade in an underground fortress.

 

[Job 33:6]

It identifies past intent and interest.

Again, what good is a weapons program as a deterrent if you can't demonstrate some level of feasibility?

Their efforts to enrich uranium haven't ceased. However, they appear to have ceased trying to enrich it to full weapons grade, and they also appear to have ceased development of all the ancillary systems required to create a fully-functional weapon.

Sure, but then why now? It's been 20 years, or 16 years, or however you want to frame it. Without any new evidence of continued development, that previous work will just get further and further out of date.

This has been explained to you multiple times by multiple people and in multiple ways. If you disagree, that's fine, but personal incredulity isn't really a valid argument.

Why now? Because they're still developing their nuclear program. They're still building out more advanced enrichment technology, they're enriching to greater and greater levels. Their centrifuges are more advanced than before.

But additionally, in case no one noticed, Hamas hang glided into Isreal and killed a bunch of innocent people, resulting in the dismantling of several of irans allies (Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria). Iran is more exposed than ever which gives the west an opportunity to put an end to their weapons program. Or to at least delay it even longer.

 

[Hans Blaster]

That's the point. It's also not civilian grade. It's pushing the line. Why would they do this if not to inch closer to that gap? Is the goal to load up so that you're 2 months out, then at any given time seal the deal? Or do you think they'd go 99% of the way and say "ah, we never actually intended to do anything with it, despite the investment".

A "threat" is not credible if you don't do something to imply the threat. No one would accept the mugger's threat "give me your money or I'll shoot" if you can see their empty hands. This was covered by "Rocks" in post #169 and #179.

This is like the sermon on the Mount. Well, we didn't actually commit adultery. We just went 99% of the way. But we didn't actually break the law.

I don't care about your religion. It is not relevant.

Who would believe them that they'd never pull that final trigger?

For the same reason the muggers almost never pull the trigger. The point of a threat is to induce the action you want before they figure out you will not execute the threatened action.

 

[Hans Blaster]

Why now? Because they're still developing their nuclear program. They're still building out more advanced enrichment technology, they're enriching to greater and greater levels. Their centrifuges are more advanced than before.

Did you not read the part where Iran stopped at 60% enrichment?

Fancier centrifuges don't give access to higher enrichment, multiple passes through are how you raise enrichment, fancier machines might just have larger capacity or efficiency, etc.

But additionally, in case no one noticed, Hamas hang glided into Isreal and killed a bunch of innocent people, resulting in the dismantling of several of irans allies (Hezbollah, Hamas, and Syria). Iran is more exposed than ever which gives the west an opportunity to put an end to their weapons program. Or to at least delay it even longer.

 

[Job 33:6]

Did you not read the part where Iran stopped at 60% enrichment?

Fancier centrifuges don't give access to higher enrichment, multiple passes through are how you raise enrichment, fancier machines might just have larger capacity or efficiency, etc.

Fancier centrifuges still speed up the process. But again, why would Iran go 99% of the way to making nuclear weapons, with use of secret underground bunkers, with a past history of nuclear weapons research, but then mysteriously decide not to make one?

I think you're being way too generous here.

It's just like the sermon on the Mount. Just look at the bigger picture. If you go 99% of the way to committing adultery, what is the condition of your heart?

As if Iran would invest all this time, money and effort to go 99% of the way, but it mysteriously would never happen?

That in and of itself is a problem. If every nation just went 99% of the way, and pleaded innocence, you can guarantee someone would pull the trigger.

We are going to go right up to the line. Edge nice and close. Nice and cozy next to the fire. Oh but don't worry, we promise not to cross that line. Oh that whole thing about a secret nuclear weapons program we have back in 2009? Ah, don't worry about that.

You guys are putting way too much trust in a nation that executes for apostasy, and has national holidays in which people chant "death to America".

 

[RocksInMyHead]

Using a nuclear weapons program as a deterrent is in and of itself a problem.

I agree, but it's a globally-accepted practice. I don't see you advocating for dismantling Israel's nuclear program, for example.

If someone goes 99% of the way to committing adultery, you don't say "ah, they did nothing wrong, it was never going to happen. They just wanted to test the waters a bit.

Maybe they committed adultery in the past. They've been doing research on it, they had a secret program on it. They have a fortified underground bunker on it and invest lots of money into it.

But don't kid yourself guys, they'd never actually do it...

The threat of adultery is intended to deter...what, exactly? This is particularly poor analogy on multiple levels.

No offense, but what are you guys talking about? The whole point is to keep the world off their backs so that they can do it in secrecy. That's why they're enriching to weapons grade in an underground fortress.

They're only doing it in secrecy now because Trump blew up (heh) the 2015 JCPOA in 2018 - from 2015 to 2018 they accepted limitations and inspectors in exchange for reduced sanctions. The underground bunker was to keep Israel from bombing it (because they've tried that before), and there remains zero evidence that they were actively trying to enrich uranium to weapons grade (90%).

Why now? Because they're still developing their nuclear program.

Says who? Israel?

They're still building out more advanced enrichment technology, they're enriching to greater and greater levels.

No, they've been enriching to 60% for years.

Their centrifuges are more advanced than before.

Ok, and...?

Iran is more exposed than ever which gives the west an opportunity to put an end to their weapons program. Or to at least delay it even longer.

This presumes that:
1. "Putting an end" to Iran's weapons program is actually a good idea.
and
2. We can actually put an end to Iran's weapons program.